Harris, Trump make final 2024 pitch
Will voters again choose a divided Congress?
Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for November 5, 2024:
You won’t have to wait long for results from three key states tonight.
GOP still talking about the 2020 election.
We’ll see if an Iowa pollster turns out to be right.
ELECTION DAY. After the most expensive campaign year in U.S. history, voters will determine today which party controls the House, Senate, and White House. If it's a repeat of 2020 and 2022 - we may not know the official winners for a few days or even weeks, as Democrats try to flip the House, while Republicans try to grab the Senate and White House.
HOUSE. After two straight elections where both parties ended up with identical 4-seat majorities, the U.S. House could be on the same path this year. Democrats are probably the slight favorite to win back the House, but no matter who prevails, the outcome may not be official tonight. One group of election experts predicted last night that Democrats would win a 218-217 majority.
SWING SEATS. "These races are close all across the board," House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries told ABC on Monday. Jeffries will be watching the results closely, as he could be the next Speaker. "There are a total of nine seats that Republicans now hold in the House that President Biden and Vice President Harris won in 2020," Jeffries noted.
DEM TARGETS. Those specific swing seats are mainly located in New York and California. But Democrats are also targeting GOP-held House seats in Iowa, Nebraska, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Arizona.
GOP TARGETS. On the other side, Republicans think they have the chance to pull back seats from Democrats in Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. It’s not hard to imagine a path to victory for both parties.
HUMPTY DUMPTY. What normally happens in a close election like this is a series of close races often fall in the same direction as late-breaking voters make their final decision. Democrats believe they have that kind of momentum right now in the presidential race, which could filter down to the House. But it won’t take much for the GOP to hold on.
TIMING. I want to emphasize this again. If there are a lot of close races tonight, it could take two weeks or so to figure out the final House margin. That is not unusual. For example, extended vote counts are normal in California, where mail-in ballots can arrive as late as Friday (though they must be postmarked by Election Day).
SENATE. While Democrats seem to be in a stronger position to win the U.S. House, Republicans are favored to win control of the U.S. Senate today. But let's be honest - we have seen the GOP blow that opportunity before. We already know the GOP will pick up one seat today in West Virginia. Republicans only need to have a net gain of two seats to take charge.
BIG SKY. Most people assume that the second seat will come from Montana, where Republican Tim Sheehy is challenging Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). For months, conventional wisdom was that Tester was a dead man walking. But some believe Tester still has a chance to pull out a victory.
GOP. Montana isn't the only spot where the GOP might pick up a Senate seat. Republicans also hope they can defeat Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in Ohio, but Brown has fought hard to stave off GOP challenger Bernie Moreno. Pennsylvania is also one to watch, but Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) could be difficult to knock off.
UPSETS. If you like longshots, then there are two Senate races where Democrats hope for an upset. One is Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) faces Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX). The other is Florida, where Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) goes against ex-Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). Cruz and Scott are the favorites - but you never know what might happen tonight.
CORNHUSKER. There is also the oddity of the Nebraska Senate race, where Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) is getting a strong challenge from Independent Dan Osborn. If Iowa is tilting back to the left, then why can't that happen across the Missouri River? Watch this race tonight.
SCHIFF. One of the likely winners tonight is Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), who is heavily favored to win a Senate seat from California. He again drew the ire of Donald Trump on Monday. "He's an evil kind of person," Trump said at a rally, as he called Schiff, 'Watermelon Head.' "This scum is going to be a Senator," Trump added.
WHAT TO WATCH. As for the race for President, I think we will get a pretty good idea of what is happening fairly early tonight. Why? Unlike the vote counting delays in 2020, there should be plenty of results and some solid election clues coming from three key swing states: Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan.
TAR HEEL. North Carolina voters cast 4.2 million early votes 'in-person,' along with 240,000 mail-in ballots. Those in-person votes can be counted first and released before the Election Day tallies, which means North Carolina can put a lot of votes on the scoreboard right away. The polls close there at 7:30 pm.
PEACH STATE. It's the same story in Georgia, where 3.76 million people voted early in-person. Georgia counties can start tabulating those early votes at 7 am, so when the polls close at 7 pm - those numbers can be quickly released. There will still be 261,000 mail-in ballots to deal with, but like North Carolina, we should have a good idea of what’s happening in Georgia.
WOLVERINE. It’s a similar story line in Michigan, where the state now allows early processing of absentee ballots. That means vote tallies from absentee and early in-person votes can be released from the city of Detroit soon after the polls close at 8 pm, instead of coming after midnight.
DELAYS. Where do we expect vote counting delays in key states? That could happen in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where GOP controlled state legislatures refused to allow changes to speed up the processing of mail-in ballots. The use of mail ballots in Arizona and Nevada could also keep those two states from being called tonight.
FINAL DAY. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump made their final pitches to voters on Monday with a series of rallies in key swing states. In the final hours, Democrats continued to express optimism about the race for the White House, while Trump saw an unusual number of empty seats at some of his campaign stops.
KEYSTONE. Working her way across Pennsylvania, Harris implored excited crowds to get as many people as possible to the polls. "Can you feel it? We have momentum," Harris said in Allentown, as she called for 'a new generation of leadership in America.'
AOC. One of the biggest surrogates for Harris has been Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). Last night, AOC joined Harris in Pennsylvania, as they spoke to Latino voters. "This week we have been launching packed canvasses and poll marches," Ocasio-Cortez said. "This is how we win."
PUERTO RICO. I know it sounds crazy, but since that bad joke about Puerto Rico being a floating island of garbage - that was just 9 days ago - it seems like Democrats have found their footing, while Trump has lost momentum. And that insult also seems to have galvanized many in the Hispanic community.
UNIVISION. A new poll out yesterday of Latino voters from Univision showed them breaking 2-to-1 for Harris. Back in August, Harris had a +17 in that poll - so she has doubled that support. That’s the basic definition of late momentum.
TRUMP. While Harris stuck to her basic stump speech on Monday - which didn't mention her opponent by name - Trump was giving an almost two hour speech in Pittsburgh, where he referenced the assassination attempt against him back in July. "Many people say that God saved me in order to save America," Trump said to cheers. "Many people are saying that."
SWING STATE. Trump started Monday in North Carolina, where he held a series of rallies in recent days - obviously concerned that the state might be getting away from the GOP. Trump threw out a whopper in that first rally, claiming that the Harris campaign had pulled out of the Tar Heel State.
THIRDS. The early vote in North Carolina was just over 34 percent Independent, 33 percent Republican, and 32 percent Democratic. The formula for victory is pretty obvious - hold onto your party’s voters, and win a clear majority of independents.
PENNSYLVANIA. In the Keystone State, Democrats have done a much better job of getting out the early vote. So far, 55 percent of ballots cast are from Democrats, 33 percent from Republicans, and just over 11 percent from Independents.
LAST ELECTION. On his final full day of campaign stops, Trump again defaulted to his familiar complaint that the 2020 election had been rigged and stolen. "The worst thing that ever happened to this country was that election," Trump said, already hinting to his supporters that evil deeds were happening in the 2024 election.
FALSE CLAIMS. The embers of the false claims of election fraud from 2020 still haven't been extinguished among Republicans - even though they have no evidence of fraud. "Four years ago today, November 4, 2020, America woke up to the reality that our election was stolen," Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) said on Monday.
MRS. GREENE OF GEORGIA. "You have been called conspiracy theorists, election deniers, smeared, shamed, and lied about," Greene added, standing fast with the false claims of vote fraud from 2020. "I’m proud to stand with Americans who refuse to back down and allow our elections to be stolen."
МОСКВА РАДИО. When it comes to claims of election fraud, U.S. Intelligence agencies believe the Kremlin is behind some of those accusations. The FBI and other agencies last night said Russia is pushing out stories which feature false claims of election fraud. You can read the full statement at this link.
"Russia is the most active threat. Influence actors linked to Russia in particular are manufacturing videos and creating fake articles to undermine the legitimacy of the election, instill fear in voters regarding the election process, and suggest Americans are using violence against each other due to political preferences, judging from information available to the IC. These efforts risk inciting violence, including against election officials. We anticipate Russian actors will release additional manufactured content with these themes through election day and in the days and weeks after polls close."
HAWKEYE. One state a lot of people will be watching closely tonight is Iowa, where we had a shock poll over the weekend that showed Kamala Harris suddenly taking a lead over Donald Trump 47-44 percent. Let's be honest. If Harris is winning in Iowa, she's winning all over.
SELZER. The pollster who did that survey admitted Monday that she was still surprised by what she found. "No one, including me, would have thought that Iowa could go for Kamala Harris," said Ann Selzer, long seen as the polling guru of the Hawkeye State.
HARRIS. Selzer said the shift to Harris was obvious from polls she did in June and September. "She's got more women, she's got more older people, she's got more college educated people," Selzer told MSNBC. Her poll also found Democrats favored in two of Iowa's four races for the U.S. House. We'll see tonight if Selzer was right.
REDISTRICTING. The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear a new challenge to Louisiana's Congressional district map in a case which could have a dramatic impact on how the Voting Rights Act plays in battles over redistricting in Congress. Last year, Louisiana had a first map struck down, which led to a new map that included two Black-majority districts.
CHALLENGE. This new legal challenge argues those two Black-majority districts run afoul of the Constitution. It obviously won't impact today's elections - but could be a very big deal if the conservative justices decide to further undercut the Voting Rights Act.
ARGUMENTS. While everyone waits for election results, the U.S. Supreme Court will be in session today, hearing arguments in two cases. One deals with Medicare reimbursement payments for hospitals, the other with questions related to overtime pay.
RAP SHEET. Election Day isn't a day off for Jan. 6 cases. A Utah man who was convicted of assaulting police will be sentenced this afternoon. "(Odin) Meacham picked up a wooden flagpole and struck a police officer on his upper body so hard that the flagpole broke in half," the government's sentencing memo stated. Meacham also tried to wrest a baton away from one officer outside the Capitol.
MUSE OF HISTORY. November 5, 1876. The 1876 election was the first where members of the House were elected on the same day as a President. In 1845, Congress passed a law to require presidential elections to be on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. In 1872, the Congress voted to require House elections to use that same November schedule, every two years.
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House next has votes on November 12.
The Senate comes back for votes on November 12.
Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree.
Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com
If you want to say ‘thanks’ - you can buy me a cup of coffee.
One thing I'll have to say, if the Dems get control off the House by only a few seats, it won't be the same as the GOP mess. Unlike Republicans, I think the Dems will stick together and get stuff done. Sure, some won't be happy, but it won't be the mess created like the Freedom Caucus makes. They'll also walk those bills over to the Senate, unlike what Johnson was doing. Now, whether it passes in a possible GOP controlled Senate, who knows? But it won't be kaos like in this past Congress.
Let me speak for many of us here, Jamie. Thank you for all you've been doing. Your newsletters have been invaluable to so many of us. You've worked so incredibly hard over the last year+ or so. And I have a feeling, your work for this election is just beginning to some degree. Be sure to post that link again to buy you a "coffee." You deserve (and probably need at this point) something stronger and we all need to help you.
Last night I had dinner with a successful businesswoman visiting from Texas. As the entrees arrived, the conversation inevitably turned to the election. I learned she is NOT a Ted Cruz fan. But I had no idea about her political affiliation. She self-described as a “fiscal conservative.” So I just asked, “How are you feeling about the state of things?” She told me she and her husband both voted for Trump in the previous two elections but opted to sit this one out. I asked, “What presented a barrier to you this time?” She’s an immigrant. She specifically mentioned the MSG rally and the response to it from friends. And then unexpectedly, she began talking about her pregnancies (she has two children) and mentioned the pregnant Texas teen who died from sepsis after being denied treatment during a miscarriage. “She died because Roe was overturned,” she told me. “He did that.”