Harris surge upends election forecast for Congress

North Carolina suddenly looks like a swing state

Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for August 15, 2024:

• Trump renews call for major tariffs on imports.

• Biden & Harris join forces this afternoon.

• This is not my father’s Congress.

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CONGRESS. One month ago, I was writing about how Democrats in Congress were in panic mode - convinced that Joe Biden was not only going to lose in November, but that he might take many of them down the drain with him. Three-plus weeks after Biden dropped out, Democrats are much more optimistic, while election worries are bubbling up on the GOP side - all because of the impact of Vice President Kamala Harris replacing Biden at the top of the ticket.

• LUNTZ. "She's bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden," GOP polling and strategy guru Frank Luntz said Wednesday on CNBC. Luntz warned that extra turnout could impact GOP lawmakers in Congress. "If it continues in this direction, you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House."

• CAP HILL. A reader asked me earlier this week for my early predictions on which party will control Congress after this year’s elections. I guess my answer would be a very cautious one right now, as we still don’t know the full measure of how the Biden-to-Harris switch will impact the overall election dynamic.

  • SENATE. Republicans remain the favorite to take charge in the Senate - mainly because the map is so tilted in their favor. The GOP will pick up a seat in West Virginia, and maybe in Montana. Could Democrats spin an upset in Florida? Or Texas? That still seems like a long shot.

  • HOUSE. The key to the House majority will be the suburbs, simply because Donald Trump has shown so much weakness there. If the race for the White House tilts against him, it could take down enough GOP lawmakers to put Democrats back in charge. Suburban women hold the key.

  • POLLS. The polls in recent days have been eye-opening in terms of the Harris surge. It’s possible she could get even more of a bump out of the Democratic convention next week. And her boost has also clearly helped Democrats running for Senate.

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ECONOMY. Hours after the best inflation report in three years, Donald Trump traveled to North Carolina yesterday to give a speech focused on the economy. But as Trump went on and off his script, he diluted some of the message drawn up for him by his campaign team - by saying out loud that he wasn't sure the economy is the biggest issue for voters in 2024.

• TRUMP. "So they say it's the most important subject," Trump told his audience in Asheville. "I'm not sure it is, but they say it's the most important."

• ATTACK. In his speech, Trump again cast Harris as a California liberal gone wild. “She is truly a radical,” Trump said, accusing her of a ‘nation wrecking agenda,’ as he lobbed repeated insults at the V.P.

• MARKETS. "If Harris wins this election, the result will be a Kamala economic crash, a 1929 style depression," said Trump, repeating a charge he made against Biden in 2020. (Narrator: That didn't happen.)

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TARIFFS. In his speech, Trump again outlined his plan to slap major tariffs on imports from 'foreign countries that have been ripping us off for years.' "We're going to charge them 10 to 20 percent," Trump said, predicting it would bring in 'billions and billions of dollars.'

• REVENUES. Uncle Sam is expected to bring in $77 billion in tariffs and customs duties in 2024. Those aren't levied on foreign countries or companies - but instead on the U.S. importers who bring those goods into the U.S. for sale. It's not clear how much more money in tariffs Trump would raise under his plans.

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POLLS. New polls out yesterday included surprise numbers which even showed Harris ahead in North Carolina - a state that voted twice for Trump. The change since Biden dropped out has stunned long time political observers. "Much like the national dynamics, it feels like night versus day," said Dr. Michael Bitzer, who chairs the Department of Politics at Catawba College.

• RALEIGH. Frankly, Democrats haven’t done their best in North Carolina since Barack Obama won the state in 2008. But this time could be different, simply because the Biden campaign - before he dropped out - had committed so many resources to the Tar Heel State.

• GROUND GAME. "The number of NC field offices that were being opened even before (Biden's) exit was something that made eyebrows go up," Bitzer told me. "We really haven't seen that kind of firm ground-game operations since 2008."

• RALEIGH. With those new polls showing her ahead, Vice President Kamala Harris will hold a Friday rally in Raleigh to see if she can tap into a bit of that building excitement. She’s expected to use that stop to unveil plans for her economic agenda.

• 270 MAP. If North Carolina starts sliding over to Harris, then things are getting really dicey for Trump overall. But for now, I’m going to be a bit skeptical. I’ve seen Democrats blow way too many election chances in North Carolina since my first election visit there in 1990, for a Jesse Helms race.

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NEWSER. Donald Trump will try to make some news from home today. Instead of traveling to do a rally, Trump will hold a news conference at his New Jersey golf retreat in Bedminster. His last news conference a week ago was a 65-minute session which gave Democrats all sorts of material to work with. Stay tuned.

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HARRIS. It's not officially a campaign stop, but it might look sort of like that this afternoon as President Biden joins Vice President Harris at an event in Maryland outside Washington, D.C. It's part of a White House announcement on the first negotiations between Medicare and major drug companies to reduce the price of some major prescription drugs.

• MESSAGE. "This is about the right thing to do, how to protect consumers, how to protect American families, and how to continue to lower costs for them," said White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.

• NO DIVISION. Jean-Pierre was pressed by reporters on any daylight about the economy between Biden and Harris. The answer was no. "This President, this Vice President, are fighting very hard to make sure that the middle class is stronger," Jean-Pierre said. "This is something that we believe in."

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LOW ENERGY. Republicans in Congress continue to churn out election year attacks against Democrats over their energy policies, in what’s become a GOP staple. "They have America on the precipice of an energy crisis due to failed, radical policies," said Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-SC). So, if that's the case, what's happening in American energy circles right now?

• PRODUCTION. Actually, what's happening right now is an oil boom. U.S. crude oil production continues to increase, now at a record of over 13.4 million barrels of oil per day - making the U.S. the world's largest oil producer. Trump may say, "Drill, baby, drill," but the data shows that's already happening.

• DEMS. "Literally in 2023 America drilled more oil than ever before in US history," said Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA). "Nonetheless the fact-free Republican Convention chants “Drill, Baby, Drill” in total ignorance of reality."

• REFINING. I’ll also remind everyone again that even if the U.S. started pumping out all sorts of oil - there is nowhere to refine that here at home. Domestic refining capacity has been almost at 100 percent for several years.

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PRISON ABUSE. While most of Congress is on break this month, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) held a hearing in Atlanta yesterday about the abuse of pregnant women in Georgia prisons. The witnesses told horrifying stories of medical mistreatment, involving prison staff that seemingly didn’t care about what was happening.

• LABOR. "Instead of taking me to the doctor, they held me in jail," said Tiana Hill, who testified that she gave birth into her underwear, because staff at the prison refused to give her any medical assistance. The baby died five days later.

• REFORM. Ossoff has led efforts at prison reforms and oversight, intended to ensure humane and safe conditions for those who are incarcerated. "I don't know what can be a more relevant measure of a society’s humanity than how we treat pregnant women and newborn babies," Ossoff said Wednesday.

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BEEHIVE. The Utah Supreme Court this week refused to order the counting of over 1,000 mail-in ballots which were not postmarked by primary day in order to be part of the final tally. That preserved the victory of Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-UT), who was ahead of GOP challenger Colby Jenkins by just 176 votes.

• STOP THE COUNT. "Today is a day for democracy," Jenkins said in a statement. "The Utah State Supreme Court’s decision means hundreds of properly cast votes will go uncounted. This ruling undermines fundamental voting rights and sets a troubling precedent for future elections."

• IRONY. There was a bit of irony in that statement, because Republicans consistently fight these lawsuits when it comes to counting votes. In this case, voters said they mailed the ballots on time - but the Postal Service didn't postmark them properly.

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CODEL. After stopping in Ukraine earlier this week, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is still on the road in Europe. His latest stop was in Finland - one of the newest members of NATO. Graham not only used the visit to call for more defense spending at home, but also had a unique story about Finnish President Alex Stubb.

• TRIVIA. "President Stubb is also a Furman University graduate who played on the golf team," Graham noted, name checking his home state Paladins. "What more could you want in an ally?"

• AFRICA. Not everyone takes a CODEL (Congressional delegation trip) to the capitals of Europe. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) has spent recent days visiting refugee camps in Kenya. "The three year drought here has caused the camp to swell to a quarter of a million," Murphy said, describing 'harrowing conditions.'

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MENENDEZ. Reports last night from New Jersey indicated that Gov. Phil Murphy (D) will appoint his former Chief of Staff, George Helmy, to the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ). Menendez is resigning on August 20, in the wake of his conviction of a series of federal bribery and corruption charges.

• GEORGE LEMIEUX. Helmy isn't expected to be sworn in until September 9, when the Senate returns from its current August break. It isn't clear yet if Helmy will serve out the rest of the Menendez term until Jan. 3 - or if the November winner will be appointed early. Stay tuned.

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SWIMSUITS. This is definitely not my father's Congress anymore. On Wednesday, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) was posting swimsuit photos and videos of fellow Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL). "A terrific one!" Gaetz tweeted as Luna showed off a 'Make America Great Again' swimsuit.

• APL. Amid some social media outrage, Luna told critics to pound sand. "I was also featured by Sports Illustrated and MAXIM," Luna tweeted, as Gaetz's wife then posted bikini photos of Luna. "APL single-handedly bringing back Women Crush Wednesday," Gaetz's wife said. I can’t make this stuff up.

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RAP SHEET. A Virginia man has pleaded guilty to assaulting police on Jan. 6. Uliayah Haya was just a few feet away from Ashli Babbitt when she was shot and killed just off the House floor. A few minutes later, Haya wrestled with D.C. police officers trying to clear people out of the Capitol, near the House chamber.

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MUSE OF HISTORY.  August 15, 1940.  As German warplanes raided Britain again, Winston Churchill asked the U.S. to send older navy ships to bolster the Royal Navy.  In exchange, the U.S. would get access to British naval bases anywhere in the Western Hemisphere.  At the Capitol, Senators tussled over that idea.  "I want to aid England," said Sen. Josh Lee of Oklahoma.  "I am not one of those who say that we were fools and suckers in the war in 1917.  We fought for the right of free men to govern themselves."

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LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:

The House is back for votes on September 9.

The Senate returns on September 9.

Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree.

Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com

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