Today’s newsletter is a terrific example of why Regular Order is so valuable to us subscribers. A busy (if dysfunctional) and clearly a very long day on Capitol Hill, expertly distilled and curated for us.
Here was the key paragraph for me: If GOP rebels block a CR today in the House, McCarthy could easily pass a basic short-term funding plan with the support of House Democrats. But he knows that if he tries that, Gaetz and others will quickly move to depose him.
So McCarthy has the power to prevent a shutdown but is too gutless to do his job? That will likely be his legacy. And based on WaPo’s reporting last night, McCarthy might go down in House history as both gutless and having one of the shortest tenures as speaker.
I think this is exactly right. Anyone supported by the hardliners isn't going to be able to corral enough votes from the remainder of the Republican caucus, and anyone not supported by the hardliners can't get elected by the remaining Republicans without support from the Democrats... and I'm not seeing why they would be motivated to support a Republican speaker. The Republicans, especially McCarthy, allowed this disaster to form, and now it's time to pay the piper.
Of course it would only take a handful of moderate Republicans to elect a Democratic speaker, but that would mean the end of their political careers... so I don't really see that happening either.
I'm really not picturing how this story is going to (eventually) end. House and Senate eventually pass different measures that aren't really palatable in the other chamber, then the House (mostly) capitulates in conference?
The problem is, if McCarthy goes BEFORE a budget is passed...and we'll play this same game next September...if they can't select a speaker the House grinds to a standstill - as in, can't do ANY business. At that point, it doesn't matter what happens in the Senate, either.
I understand the Constitutional prohibition against lowering (or raising) Congressional pay in the current term. Could Congress make their pay contingent upon the government remaining open and attach that to a bill authorizing the amount to be paid after the 2024 election?
I also know that's highly unlikely to happen, but at least might it be a way to get around the constitutional issue? After all, what Congressman - the only ones who would have standing - would challenge it in court?
Today’s newsletter is a terrific example of why Regular Order is so valuable to us subscribers. A busy (if dysfunctional) and clearly a very long day on Capitol Hill, expertly distilled and curated for us.
Here was the key paragraph for me: If GOP rebels block a CR today in the House, McCarthy could easily pass a basic short-term funding plan with the support of House Democrats. But he knows that if he tries that, Gaetz and others will quickly move to depose him.
So McCarthy has the power to prevent a shutdown but is too gutless to do his job? That will likely be his legacy. And based on WaPo’s reporting last night, McCarthy might go down in House history as both gutless and having one of the shortest tenures as speaker.
You said McCarthy was gutless. And the truth hurts, don't it Kevin?
I agree with most of your comment but here is my question:
If McCarthy made a deal with Democrats & the Freedom caucus challenged his leadership, who would replace him?
If McCarthy had guts he’d try this end around
The WaPo reported last evening that hardliners are attempting to press Rep. Tom Emmer (Minn.) into service. The next week will be interesting. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/28/kevin-mccarthy-tom-emmer-government-shutdown-motion-vacate/
You can put anyone else in that spot, and I'm not sure the outcome is any different.
I think this is exactly right. Anyone supported by the hardliners isn't going to be able to corral enough votes from the remainder of the Republican caucus, and anyone not supported by the hardliners can't get elected by the remaining Republicans without support from the Democrats... and I'm not seeing why they would be motivated to support a Republican speaker. The Republicans, especially McCarthy, allowed this disaster to form, and now it's time to pay the piper.
Of course it would only take a handful of moderate Republicans to elect a Democratic speaker, but that would mean the end of their political careers... so I don't really see that happening either.
I'm really not picturing how this story is going to (eventually) end. House and Senate eventually pass different measures that aren't really palatable in the other chamber, then the House (mostly) capitulates in conference?
All McCarthy has to do is work with moderate republicans and a handful of dems to pass the Senate CR.
Who cares if he loses the speakship? He’s not gonna keep it anyway, and he’s useless at it regardless.
So it’s either govt shut down or McCarthy is ousted? I think I know which is the better option…
The problem is, if McCarthy goes BEFORE a budget is passed...and we'll play this same game next September...if they can't select a speaker the House grinds to a standstill - as in, can't do ANY business. At that point, it doesn't matter what happens in the Senate, either.
I understand the Constitutional prohibition against lowering (or raising) Congressional pay in the current term. Could Congress make their pay contingent upon the government remaining open and attach that to a bill authorizing the amount to be paid after the 2024 election?
I also know that's highly unlikely to happen, but at least might it be a way to get around the constitutional issue? After all, what Congressman - the only ones who would have standing - would challenge it in court?