GOP rebels ready to force shutdown
No House-Senate deal in sight on temporary funding
Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for September 29, 2023:
Menendez refuses to resign.
First GOP impeachment hearing is a dud.
A tough shutdown lesson for one Republican.
SHUTDOWN. Barring some kind of legislative miracle, a small group of House Republicans are poised to drag the Congress - and the entire federal government - into a shutdown this weekend. The House will try to vote today on a temporary funding plan from Republicans, but it will likely be defeated because GOP rebels won't back any stopgap spending bill.
REBELS. "I've said the only way to stop governing by continuing resolution is to stop governing by continuing resolution," said Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL). Others were just as adamant. "I'm opposed to any CR," said Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT). There seem to be more than enough of those votes to defeat any GOP plan.
MCCARTHY. Caught in the middle, Speaker Kevin McCarthy blamed the Freedom Caucus for blocking work on government funding bills for two months. "Then they say they won't vote for a stopgap measure that keeps government open," McCarthy told reporters. "So, I don't know where to go in that scenario."
STOPGAP. Just after 1 am, Republicans released the details of their updated temporary funding plan. Every program outside of the Pentagon, Homeland Security, the VA, and disaster relief would be cut by nearly 30 percent for this one-month plan. The House Rules Committee meets on it at 8 am.
DEMS. If GOP rebels block a CR today in the House, McCarthy could easily pass a basic short-term funding plan with the support of House Democrats. But he knows that if he tries that, Gaetz and others will quickly move to depose him. The Speaker will hold a news conference at 10 am.
SPENDING. Republicans did make some progress last night, as the House approved three different government funding bills for next year - one for the Pentagon, Homeland Security, and foreign operations. Four bills have now made it through the House - but eight others still await action.
AG-FDA. There was one sour note for Republicans, as the House last night defeated a bill funding Agriculture & FDA programs. A number of GOP lawmakers objected to a provision banning mail order abortion pills, and farm program cuts alienated others. 27 Republicans voted ‘no.’
FARM STATE. All four Iowa Republicans voted against the bill - that's one heck of a bellwether when it comes to agriculture policy. Also voting no was Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska. "We can’t cater to a few who want it ‘my way or the highway,’” said Bacon.
GRUMBLING. Conservatives saw it differently. "Unfortunately, moderates joined Democrats in breaking the Republican momentum and team unity," said Rep. Bob Good (R-VA), who pressed for a tough GOP stance in the bill against abortion.
UKRAINE. A day after voting overwhelmingly to keep $300 million in funding for Ukraine in a Pentagon funding bill, House Republicans voted to strip that money out - and instead advanced the Ukraine aid in a separate, standalone bill. That measure was approved on a strong bipartisan vote of 311 to 117.
RED FLAG. But there was an ominous warning sign for supporters, as a majority of Republicans voted against Ukraine aid for the first time in the House. "117 Republicans voted against additional funding to the proxy war in Ukraine," said Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX). "There’s a long way to go, but the dam is breaking," added Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC).
VIBE CHECK. This is hard to describe - but the vibe in the hallways of the Capitol in the past week has been really weird. Everyone knows what the answer is - both parties have to join together on some kind of short-term funding plan, while the 12 government funding bills get worked out. And yet, that's not an option for a number of Republicans.
SPEAKER. Some have described Speaker McCarthy as sort of a 'dead man walking' because of how GOP rebels have threatened to push him out as Speaker. McCarthy has alternately lectured reporters and playfully sparred with them about his limited options.
SENATE. The situation in the Senate remains tricky. While the Senate voted 76-22 to officially begin debate on a temporary funding plan, there was trouble brewing behind the scenes. Some GOP Senators want changes dealing with illegal immigration and the border - and they may have some leverage.
TIMING. Unless there’s a deal, a final vote on funding can’t happen until Monday or Tuesday, which is well after government funding runs dry on Saturday night. "No one wins in a shutdown," said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI). "Shutdowns don't work." But that’s where things may be heading.
REGULAR ORDER. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard the phrase ‘Regular order’ on the House and Senate floor in the past few weeks - and this newsletter offers a unique inside view of what’s happening on Capitol Hill. Support independent journalism by signing up, giving someone a gift subscription, or you can always just buy me a drink.
MENENDEZ. Back at the Capitol and voting on Thursday, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) did not get a hero's welcome from fellow Democrats. In a closed door meeting, Menendez told his colleagues that he would not resign - no matter the corruption charges leveled against him, which included tales of gold bars and over $400,000 in cash stuffed in envelopes at his home.
SILENCE. As his fellow Democrats left the meeting in a room just off the Senate floor, most Senators refused to answer any questions from reporters. There was no indication that Menendez was going anywhere anytime soon. And that did not sit well with Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA).
EXPEL. "Now that it's confirmed that he's not going to go the honorable way, I would like to pursue whatever avenues are available," Fetterman told reporters - indicating that could include a motion to expel Menendez from the Senate.
AX TO GRIND. From the start, Fetterman has been the most outspoken on Menendez. And it has puzzled us in the hallways. "Senator, did he do something to you to make you feel this strongly about him?" Fetterman was asked by Frank Thorp of NBC. Fetterman said no - he just feels Menendez needs to go. But there is clearly something visceral involved.
DRESS CODE. Speaking of Fetterman, he changed out of his hoodie and shorts and into a suit and tie on Thursday so he could preside over the Senate. The Pennsylvania Democrat's refusal to wear a tie while doing that job led to this week's approval of a formal dress code for male Senators.
IMPEACHMENT. We all knew yesterday's hearing of the House Oversight Committee had no witnesses with first hand evidence about either Hunter Biden or Joe Biden. It was obviously going to be a partisan show, and there’s nothing surprising about that. But what Republicans didn't plan for was how some of the testimony would be seen as undermining their own case.
TURLEY. The first dagger was from Jonathan Turley, a familiar face on Fox News. While Turley said a probe is warranted, he said the evidence against Joe Biden is lacking. "I do not believe that the evidence currently meets the standard of a high crime and misdemeanor needed for an article of impeachment."
DUBINSKY. A second witness, Bruce Dubinsky - an expert forensic accountant - also testified that he had not seen evidence of wrongdoing by either of the Bidens. "In my opinion, more information needs to be gathered and assessed before I would make such an assessment."
LEAKS. What was I most surprised by on Thursday? The number of anonymous GOP staffers and lawmakers who trash talked this hearing. They were frustrated with the message. Confused by the GOP arguments. And there was a general sense that Republicans weren't ready for prime time.
GOP. As I have observed before, Congressional Republicans are really good at creating outrage about Hunter Biden, Joe Biden, Anthony Fauci, et al. What House GOP lawmakers are not very good at is following through with evidence to back up their specific claims of wrongdoing.
CLOCK. Maybe the most effective thing that Democrats did during this hearing was use a shutdown countdown clock - and place it so that it was always on screen during their time. "Impeach him right now. I dare you," said Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL).
SHUTDOWN PAY. One of the oddities about a government shutdown is that members of Congress continue to get paid. Under the Constitution, their pay cannot be changed until after the next election - so they can't pass any bills which stop their pay. One Republican on Thursday learned the hard way about those details.
C-SPAN. Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY) was on C-SPAN's 'Morning Journal,' when he was asked by host Greta Brawner if he would keep taking his pay. Williams said he didn't know how the process worked. So, Brawner asked again. His answer probably made his press secretary want a stiff drink.
WILLIAMS. "I am not independently wealthy, and we are like any other family," as Williams said he would take his pay. Just a few hours later, he had a different message. "I have directed that the House suspend my pay to share the burden of a potential government shutdown." Williams will hear about this one for a while.
RAP SHEET. A Florida man has been arrested for his actions inside the Capitol on Jan. 6. Ryan Yates entered through the Senate Wing Door, where the initial breach took place. He made his way to the House side where rioters were trying to get into the House chamber, and later tussled with police near the Rotunda doors.
SUNSHINE STATE. A Florida woman was sentenced on Thursday to 30 days in prison for her actions on Jan. 6. Corinne Montoni had pleaded guilty to one felony offense of civil disorder inside the Capitol. She wrote on her Parler account, "WE BREACHED THE CAPITOL OMG."
PROUD BOY. The Florida man who went missing just before he was to be sentenced for his Jan. 6 crimes was arrested last night at his home. Christopher Worrell, a member of the Proud Boys, sprayed pepper gel on police, and joined in assaulting other officers to help break police lines outside the Capitol. He had been scheduled for sentencing in August.
MUSE OF HISTORY. September 29, 1789. Four days after approving what would become the Bill of Rights, the first session of the First Congress adjourned on this date. President Washington sent lawmakers a letter thanking them for their 'long and laborious' work - as he would send the states copies of the 12 amendments approved to the Constitution by Congress a few days later. (Yes, I said 12 amendments.)
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House meets at 10 am.
The Senate convenes at 10 am.
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Today’s newsletter is a terrific example of why Regular Order is so valuable to us subscribers. A busy (if dysfunctional) and clearly a very long day on Capitol Hill, expertly distilled and curated for us.
Here was the key paragraph for me: If GOP rebels block a CR today in the House, McCarthy could easily pass a basic short-term funding plan with the support of House Democrats. But he knows that if he tries that, Gaetz and others will quickly move to depose him.
So McCarthy has the power to prevent a shutdown but is too gutless to do his job? That will likely be his legacy. And based on WaPo’s reporting last night, McCarthy might go down in House history as both gutless and having one of the shortest tenures as speaker.
So it’s either govt shut down or McCarthy is ousted? I think I know which is the better option…