Still short of majority, McCarthy maps out House GOP transition
Trump broadens attacks on DeSantis
Also in today’s “Regular Order” for November 11, 2022:
Conservatives grumble about a Speaker McCarthy.
Democrats fight over losses in New York.
House and Senate are still up for grabs.
MCCARTHY. With Republicans still trying to get to 218 seats in the House, GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy announced a series of plans on Thursday for what Republicans will do when they take control of the House in January. "I've established Transition Teams so that on Day 1, House Republicans deliver for the American people," McCarthy declared.
PLANS. McCarthy put Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) in charge of implementing the 'Commitment to America' package. Rep. James Comer (R-KY) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) will lead efforts on 'Oversight & Accountability,' and Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI) will be in charge of 'Restoring the People's House.'
LETTER. In a letter to six top Capitol Hill officials, McCarthy asked for a 'full written plan' on House operations. "Earlier this week, our country voted for new leadership," McCarthy wrote, asking that the public galleries in the House be fully reopened, along with access for visitors to Congressional offices.
PELOSI. McCarthy's letter drew a sharp rebuke from a top aide to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who accused the GOP of trying to 'intimidate the professionals who run the House.' Or you could look at it another way - the winners get to call the shots.
SPEAKER. I know this might sound crazy to some of my readers - but I’m not sure you can automatically assume that McCarthy will be the next Speaker of the House. There continue to be anti-McCarthy rumblings among conservatives inside and outside of the Congress - which should not be ignored.
FREEDOM CAUCUS. "He is not my first choice and even quite frankly in my top 100," Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) said. “I don't understand why this is just a foregone conclusion," said Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ). "I think we have to have a real discussion and see how people respond to the ultimate results."
ELECTIONS. But there won’t be much time for discussion. The GOP plan is to vote next Tuesday afternoon on House leadership positions, giving McCarthy critics little time to organize. (That’s probably part of the plan.)
118TH CONGRESS. McCarthy can certainly win a majority of the House GOP Conference next week. But in January, the California Republican would need a majority of the House to be elected as Speaker. And if you only have maybe 220 Republicans, that means you can't afford many defections.
COUNTDOWN. While House Republicans will hold vote next week, Democrats won’t hold leadership elections until the week after Thanksgiving. That means Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other top Democratic leaders now have less than three weeks to figure out what's next for them.
HOUSE UPDATE. Republicans inched closer to a formal majority in the House on Thursday, but are still short of 218 seats as of this morning. By my count, the Republicans are leading 222-213. Democrats still have a mathematical chance to keep control of the House. It's possible - but not likely.
UNDECIDED. There are still over 30 House races which have not been called by the Associated Press. About half of them are in California - where well over 4 million votes still have to be counted. That could delay final verdicts on a number of those House seats until next week.
LAWMAKERS. Thursday was a good day for some incumbents. In Colorado, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) now leads by over 1,100 votes. Two Democrats from California, Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) and Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA), expanded their narrow leads. And all three Democrats in Nevada remain ahead as well.
CASUALTY LIST. In the House, six incumbent Democrats and three Republican members have lost so far - Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ) was the latest. Another one in danger is Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) - 4,600 votes behind.
MAJORITY. There is one thing we should remember - a small majority is nothing new. Democrats started the 117th Congress in 2021 with 222 members. Republicans could end up at about that same number to start 2023.
SENATE UPDATE. Nothing changed with the Senate on Thursday. The math is simple - the party that wins two of three states from Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia will be in the majority next year.
ARIZONA. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) expanded his lead on Thursday as new votes came in from Pima and Maricopa counties. From what I can see, this race can probably be called for Kelly over Republican Blake Masters. But we wait for more votes to be tabulated today.
NEVADA. Meanwhile, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) trimmed her deficit, as she trails Republican Adam Laxalt by 8,000+ votes. Democrats still feel that she can win this race with votes from Clark County (Las Vegas).
GEORGIA. Again - the Georgia runoff between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Republican Herschel Walker will only matter if the two parties split Nevada and Arizona. If Democrats win both, then they keep the Senate majority.
REGULAR ORDER. We welcome back our weekly subscribers. What a week it was for ‘Regular Order.’ Why not upgrade to a paid subscription - or give the gift of straight news to one of your friends or someone in your family. No matter which party is in charge on Capitol Hill, the coming months will be action-packed.
2024. Donald Trump has been ready to run for President again for months. Now he seems ready to make that announcement next Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. But is the Republican Party really ready for a third White House bid by Trump? Maybe not. That's my column this week in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
TRUMP. In an email to supporters yesterday, Trump previewed his Tuesday event as only Trump can. "This announcement will perhaps be the most important speech given in the history of the United States of America.”
DESANTIS. In a separate statement, Trump lashed out at the man seen as his main rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, calling him "Governor Ron DeSanctimonious, an average REPUBLICAN Governor with great Public Relations."
MURDOCH. Trump was also outraged by attacks on him via the news media empire of the Murdoch family. "Trump is the Republican Party's Biggest Loser," the Wall Street Journal editorial board proclaimed, as the WSJ, Fox News, and New York Post took aim at Trump.
GOP. Some voices joined Team Murdoch’s criticism. "I think Donald Trump gives us problems politically," said former House Speaker Paul Ryan. "If fealty to Donald Trump is the primary criteria for selecting candidates we're probably not going to do really well," Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) told CNN.
EMPIRE STATE. It's not just Republicans pointing fingers - New York Democrats are fighting over their losses. The bad blood spilled out between Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) - the head of national House Democratic campaign efforts - who lost his seat this week in an upset.
MALONEY. In an interview with the New York Times, Maloney blamed the GOP focus on crime for Democratic losses in suburban areas of the state - and he ripped Ocasio-Cortez repeatedly. "I didn’t see her one minute of these midterms helping our House majority," Maloney said.
TWITTER. Firing back at Maloney, Ocasio-Cortez defended her campaign work in California for fellow House Democrats. "As for him “not seeing me” - perhaps it’s because he as a party leader chose not to see nor value prominent members of his party for years," AOC said.
LOSSES. Democrats lost four House seats in New York this week. They also lost four in Florida. Those two states probably cost them the majority in the U.S. House.
ABORTION. It's clear the backlash over abortion rights spurred an increase in turnout for Democrats, and enabled them to fight off what Republicans thought was going to be a Red wave in Congress. Some party strategists say Democrats should keep that fight going - arguing it's put Republicans on the defensive.
SENATE. "Overturning Roe w Wade was a powerful inducement for Democrats to get out and vote," said Jim Manley, a longtime senior Senate Democratic aide. "So much so that I think that Senate Democrats should actually consider allowing Senator (Lindsey) Graham (R-SC) to offer his abortion ban bill on the floor."
GRAHAM. That bill would ban most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Graham put it forward in mid-September, convinced it would put Democrats on the defensive. Instead, it fueled efforts within the party to motivate voters to get to the polls this week.
BOTTOM LINE. Along with abortion, why else did Democrats nullify what historically should have been a GOP win? Much of it has to do with a problem identified by Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell - candidate quality. The GOP ran some candidates who just didn't appeal to independents and Democrats, and it cost them dearly.
MICHIGAN. The first example is Michigan, where Democrats won control of the state House and Senate for the first time in 40 years. Why did Democrats do so well this year? Just look at the top of the GOP ticket in Michigan, and it's easy to understand why. Candidate quality matters.
PENNSYLVANIA. In the Keystone State, it was the same thing. Republicans were behind the 8-ball from the start, mainly because the GOP nominated a terrible candidate for Governor, and Dr. Oz didn't help in the race for U.S. Senate. Candidate quality matters.
NEW HAMPSHIRE. In the Granite State, GOP Gov. Chris Sununu cruised to reelection. But the Republican candidates echoing Donald Trump about 2020 election fraud went nowhere in the race for Senate and two U.S. House seats. Candidate quality matters.
RAP SHEET. Fathers and sons do a lot of stuff together. Usually it involves playing baseball or something fun. But for one father-son tandem from Texas, it involved assaulting police officers at the U.S. Capitol on January 6. The duo pleaded guilty to federal charges on Thursday. We'll see if they get to serve time in jail together, too.
ASSAULTS. Outside the Capitol, the son hit one police officer with a skateboard, which led to a wider skirmish between police and rioters. About the same time, the father was physically pushing police officers. Later on, the dad tried to grab a baton away from another Capitol cop.
ARRESTS. Nearly 900 people have now been arrested for their actions at the Capitol on Jan. 6, including over 275 people charged with violent actions against police that day.
MUSE OF HISTORY. November 11, 1918. As word arrived on Capitol Hill on this date about the armistice to end World War I, Senators happened to be debating a military spending bill. And they were also taking stock of how the U.S. budget had grown in recent years. "A million is not chicken feed," said Sen. Charles Thomas of Colorado. "It took us a long time to learn to use the word 'billions,'" added Sen. Reed Smoot of Utah. "If any member of the Appropriations Committee undertook to save a hundred thousand dollars he would be laughed at."
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House next has votes on November 14.
The Senate will have votes on November 14.
President Biden’s daily schedule link.
Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree. Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com
Yes, it is still important - but it won't be for all the marbles - control of the Senate.
I would assume that McCarthy will get rid of it. If not, he'll be the biggest hypocrite in the world, since he appealed that case multiple times in the courts and lost