Senate border deal already on life support

House to vote on Mayorkas impeachment charges

Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for February 6, 2024:

• Sen. Lankford has the worst day ever.

• Biden threatens veto of Israel-only aid plan.

• Democrats stunned by quick GOP retreat on border bill.

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BORDER DEAL. If you thought Congress could bridge the divide over illegal immigration - think again - as a bipartisan Senate border security deal is in deep trouble. A day after the details were released, GOP Senators quickly lined up against the agreement on Monday, rejecting the arguments of their party’s main negotiator, with former President Donald Trump denouncing the plan as a political loser.

• GOP. "This border deal does nothing to actually secure the border," said Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). "I'm going to vote no," said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI). "I don't see anything changing my mind." Opponents quickly sensed the momentum was against the deal. “As of tonight, it appears to be going the way of the eight-track tape,” said Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT).

• DEEP SIXED. Democrats were shocked by how fast Republicans seemed to give up. "They literally demanded specific policy, got it, and then killed it," said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI). "Honestly, this is so embarrassing," said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), who led negotiations for Democrats. "You told us you wanted a bipartisan border fix."

• TRUMP. The biggest impediment to the deal was an obvious one - as the opposition of Donald Trump weighed heavily on Republicans. "Only a fool, or a Radical Left Democrat, would vote for this horrendous Border Bill," Trump wrote on his Truth Social site, as he called it a 'Death Wish for the Republican Party.'

• SINEMA. The Senators who negotiated the deal weren't giving up. "To no one’s surprise, there’s a lot of noise from extremes on both sides about why this proposal fails their partisan purity tests," said Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).

• MOTION TO PROCEED. Democrats still plan to hold a first procedural vote on Wednesday to force the start of debate on the border deal. But they don’t have 60 votes to overcome a GOP filibuster.

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LANKFORD. The Republican who led the border talks had the worst day of any Senator - by far - on Monday. Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) spent much of the day making the case for the deal on conservative media. “Are we as Republicans going to have press conferences and complain the border is bad and then intentionally leave it open?” Lankford asked on Fox News.

• COLLEAGUES. While Lankford argued for the deal, fellow GOP Senators wasted no time knifing him in the back. "I am very disappointed that so many of our members came out as a hard ‘No,’" said Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA). "I wish we had given (Lankford) the benefit of the doubt."

• TRUMPED. Lankford is one of the most conservative Republicans in the Congress. But by Monday afternoon, that didn’t matter. He was being pilloried on social media as a loser liberal in disguise.

• ATTACK. "This is a very bad bill for his career," said Trump, who denied that he had endorsed Lankford, even though Trump did endorse him in 2022. "The people in Oklahoma - these are serious MAGA - they are not going to be happy about this," Trump declared.

• BOOMER SOONER. I've covered Lankford since his first day in Congress in 2011. He is very conservative. I’m sure Lankford figured that his GOP colleagues would at least give him the benefit of the doubt after all of the work that he did on this deal. But that’s not how it works with Trump breathing down your neck.

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BORDER PATROL. One of the few positive signs for the Senate border deal came from a most unusual source - the main union for Border Patrol agents, the National Border Patrol Council. I can't emphasize how much the leadership of the NBPC hates Joe Biden and the Democrats. And yet, the group got on board with this bipartisan border agreement.

• NBPC. "While not perfect, the Border Act of 2024 is a step in the right direction and is far better than the current status quo," said union chief Brandon Judd. "This is why the National Border Patrol Council endorses this bill and hopes for its quick passage.”

• NO IMPACT. But the statement of support didn’t change the political calculus at all about the deal, as GOP lawmakers ignored the union stance. What was more interesting was how it was received by GOP voters - a throwback to the days when Trump was President.

• SOCIAL MEDIA. "This is a lie," one person wrote after I posted the union’s statement of support. "Why can't you tell the truth?" demanded another. "Liar," wrote someone else. "You are lying, or uninformed."

• COMPROMISE. It was yet another reminder of how many voters just cannot accept the idea of bipartisan compromise - or the concept of making some progress - on difficult political subjects.

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BILL. I will say this about the measure produced by Senate negotiators - I have covered immigration issues since the mid-1980's, back when we called the people coming across the border 'illegal aliens.' I can honestly say I have never seen such a conservative piece of legislation as this deal. It really is quite striking.

• PATHWAY. For a decade, Democrats have talked about a pathway to citizenship or other legal protections for the 'Dreamers.' This bill offers nothing like that. There is no path to legal status. No reforms for migrant farm workers. The plan is simply tilted to the GOP side on enforcement.

• NO THANKS. "I think it's a big fail," said Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA). You could sense his disgust as he left the Senate floor last night. And yet, the bill that Padilla couldn’t stand wasn’t acceptable to most Republicans - because it wasn’t tough enough.

• REPEAT. Most people have long forgotten, but this is really the fourth time this century that I've watched Republicans entertain a border and immigration deal in Congress - and then back away. The other times were in 2006, 2013, and 2018.

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IMPEACHMENT. With the effort to address border security going nowhere, Republicans in the House are ready to deliver a historic rebuke today to the official in charge of border policy. The House will vote on two articles of impeachment against Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas. He would be only the second Cabinet secretary to be impeached - the first since 1867.

• SECRETARY. "Mayorkas has lost the trust of the American people and this Congress," said Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R-MN). "It's abundantly clear that the Secretary has willfully and systemically refused to comply with the law and breached public trust," added Rep. Mark Green (R-TN).

• REBUKE. Democrats labeled the impeachment resolution against Mayorkas 'pathetic' and 'embarrassing.' "This is the most frivolous impeachment effort this House has ever seen," said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA). "The clowns are running the circus around here."

• VOTE. The GOP has a narrow majority in the House, and this vote will be very close. Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) has already said he will vote against impeachment. Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA) remains undecided. The difference may be which party has fewer absent members on Tuesday.

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ISRAEL AID. Along with the impeachment resolution, the House will vote today on a $17 billion aid package for Israel. That plan has now drawn a veto threat from President Biden as the GOP tries again to decouple aid for Ukraine and Israel. "This bill is another cynical political maneuver," the White House said on Monday. "The security of Israel should be sacred, not a political game."

• TACTICS. The goal of the GOP is twofold - they want to separate this aid from Ukraine, and they also want to put Democrats on the hot seat by daring them to vote against help for the Israeli government. "The House Republican bill is a cynical betrayal of our allies in Ukraine," said Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA).

• TWO-THIRDS. We have seen a number of important bills pass of late under what’s called ‘suspension of the rules,’ where a two-thirds supermajority is needed. I'm wondering if this bill might fall short. First, there will be Democrats who are likely to stick with Biden's veto threat.

• FREEDOM CAUCUS. And there are Republicans who will vote against the Israel package, because the aid isn't offset by spending cuts. "I'm not going to write a check for $17 billion that's not paid for," said Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX).

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SPARTZ. After announcing last year that she would not run for reelection - and then threatening to resign early from her seat in the House - Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) changed course on Monday, and filed for reelection. "Deciding where your duty lies - family, work, or country, is never an easy task," Spartz said.

• HOOSIER. For the past year, the campaign to succeed Spartz has been going on back home in Indiana. State Rep. Chuck Goodrich has raised $700,000 in contributions - and added in $1 million of his own money. In other words, Spartz is not an automatic winner. The primary is May 7.

• SECURITY. I saw Spartz last night in the Speaker's Lobby - she has security trailing her which likely stems from some of the threats she's received from her native Ukraine. In the past, Spartz has been attacked as a Russian stooge and Putin collaborator.

• NUMBERS. With Spartz now trying to stay on, that means 40 current members of the House won't be back after the 2024 election. They are split 23 Democrats and 17 Republicans.

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WHITE HOUSE. It's Primary Day in Nevada for both Democrats and Republicans. But that's where the similarities end. The GOP ballot has Nikki Haley's name - but not Donald Trump's. That's because the state Republican Party put together a party caucus on Thursday. Trump is on the caucus ballot; Haley is not.

• DEMS. On the Democratic side, President Biden faces an array of candidates like Superpayaseria Reese Crystalroc, Frankie Lozada, Mando Perez-Serrato, and Brent Foulz. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) is not on the ballot in Nevada.

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DEADLINE. Yesterday was the normal deadline - the first Monday in February - for the President to submit a budget to Congress. That did not happen, since the Congress still isn't finished with the spending bills for the current fiscal year. It's a double reminder of how screwed up the budget process is right now on Capitol Hill.

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RAP SHEET. An Ohio man has been arrested and charged for his actions on Jan. 6. The feds didn't get tips about Mason Porter until two years after the Capitol riot. "Imagine what could happen if we exercised our second amendment to the fullest," Porter wrote on Facebook about going to the Capitol.

• BACK THE BLUE. A former Boston police K-9 officer has pleaded guilty to assaulting police on Jan. 6 at the U.S. Capitol. Joseph Fisher skirmished with officers inside the Capitol Visitor's Center, and pleaded guilty to eight different charges - which is very unusual for this investigation.

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MUSE OF HISTORY.  February 6, 1974.  On this date, the House voted 410-4 to authorize the Judiciary Committee to start a formal impeachment investigation of President Nixon over Watergate.  "These are extremely grave questions," said Rep. Peter Rodino (D-NJ), the Chair of the panel.  "We cannot turn away, out of partisanship or convenience."   The four 'No' votes were Blackburn R-GA, Landgrebe R-IN, Moorhead R-CA, and Treen R-LA.

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LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:

The House meets at 12 noon.

The Senate convenes at 10 am.

Check President Biden’s schedule.

Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree.

Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com

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