Jordan hopes to grab Speaker's gavel

Still some drama as GOP holdouts threaten Jordan bid

Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for October 17, 2023:

• Senate leaders want fast action on aid for Israel.

• Trump gets gagged by Jan. 6 judge.

• New crime stats tell a different story.

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SPEAKER. The House plans to vote today on a new Speaker, though there is no guarantee that Republicans will be able to muster a majority for Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH). On Monday, Jordan picked up a series of key endorsements from Republicans who had declared they would never vote for him - but Jordan still has to overcome about a dozen or so GOP holdouts, who could theoretically force multiple ballots on the House floor or even derail his bid for Speaker.

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MEETING. In yet another closed door meeting last night at the Capitol, Jordan made his pitch to fellow Republicans - as today marks two weeks since the House booted out Speaker Kevin McCarthy. "The American people deserve to have their Congress and their House of Representatives working," Jordan told reporters. "And we can't have that until we get a Speaker."

• SUPPORT. Jordan and his allies were optimistic about votes moving in their favor over the past 48 hours. "I felt good walking into the conference, I feel even better now," Jordan said after the meeting. But there was still work to do. "We've got a few more people we want to talk to, to listen to, and then we'll have a vote," the Ohio Republican added.

• MAJORITY. If all 433 House members vote today (there are two vacancies), then Jordan would need 217 votes to win. There are 221 Republicans, so Jordan can't afford to lose more than four GOP lawmakers. (Once again, there is no conceivable outcome where a Democrat is elected Speaker of the House.

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OPPOSITION. Those Republicans opposed to Jordan at this point have been rallying behind one main argument - that Jordan lost last week to Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and should have rallied behind Scalise to be the new Speaker. “I’m not voting for Jim Jordan because he got beat by Steve Scalise in a free and fair election," said Rep. John Rutherford (R-FL).

• SCALISE. "The majority of us have been stepped on, on this, and I'm not going to take it," said Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), still furious that Kevin McCarthy was ousted as Speaker, and that Scalise was derailed. Rep. Mike Kelly (R-PA) also said he will vote for Scalise, for the same reason.

• SOUTH FLORIDA. Jordan also has trouble in Miami. Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-FL) has said he's only voting for McCarthy. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL) hinted to reporters that he was being threatened about his vote. "One thing that will never work with me is when you try to pressure me," Diaz-Balart said.

• PRESSURE. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) also was not happy with the pressure campaign from Jordan. She told reporters she is undecided - but reportedly said in last night’s meeting that she would not vote for Jordan.

• OTHERS. Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) remains a holdout. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) says he will vote for McCarthy - and that could influence others from the New York metro area. And it won't surprise me for Rep. Steve Womack (R-AR) to go against Jordan.

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VIBE CHECK. But despite all of those votes which might go against Jordan, the feeling in the hallways last night was not really one of impending doom. Yes, Jordan might not get a majority on the first ballot. But after watching several Republicans who were ‘HELL NO’ just fold like a cheap suit on Monday, it really isn't hard to imagine a repeat of that today on Capitol Hill.

• ROLL CALL. That being said - you never know what might happen when the vote is called. There could be two anti-Jordan votes in the B's - from Bacon and Buck. Another from Diaz-Balart. Gimenez says he is voting for McCarthy. Kelly supposedly won't vote for Jordan - so by the K's, there already could be no winner on the first ballot.

• WILD CARD. What happens after there are already five anti-Jordan votes up on the board? Do other Republicans stick their neck out and join in, maybe thinking that it is better to put their thumb on that side of the scale?

• BALLOTS. It could also be that Jordan falls just short on the first ballot, and then a bunch of GOP lawmakers say, "I've made my point," and Jordan soon enough is wielding the gavel as the new Speaker of the House. Stay tuned.

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PROMISES. If you go back to January when Kevin McCarthy was elected Speaker, and there were a lot of promises made by him to get his final few votes. Jordan was doing the same thing, sewing up the support of several defense hawks by seemingly agreeing to have a House vote on an aid package for Ukraine. That's notable, since it could anger some of Jordan's supporters in this race.

• LONE STAR. Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) said Jordan told him he might link aid for Ukraine to an aid package for Israel. "He's open to packaging it with other things," McCaul told reporters. McCaul said Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) heard that too. "He was given the same assurances," McCaul said.

• STOPGAP. Jordan also raised some eyebrows with promises about pushing for approval of a long-term temporary funding bill, which would put off any questions about a possible government shutdown. "I've never voted for a CR, and I can't believe I ever would," said Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ), who was clearly not on board with Jordan's proposal.

• SHUTDOWN. Frankly, if Jordan becomes the Speaker, he is probably going to still encounter GOP lawmakers who won't vote for *any* stopgap funding bill (exactly what McCarthy had to deal with). Like McCarthy, Jordan will need the votes of Democrats to pass *any* funding bills which become law.

• PUBLIC. So what promises have been made by Jordan? "Whatever deal you make, publish them so that everybody knows," Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) told reporters.

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JANUARY 6. A federal judge in Washington, D.C. on Monday imposed a limited gag order on former President Donald Trump, trying to stop him from publicly attacking prosecutors, the judge, witnesses, and courthouse staff in his January 6 case. As you might imagine, Trump was outraged.

• TRUMP. "I’ll be the only politician in our history where I won't be allowed to criticize people," Trump said during a campaign stop in Iowa. He complained that the decision from Judge Tanya Chutkan was 'so unconstitutional.' He's expected to appeal the ruling.

• MRS. GREENE OF GEORGIA. In the courtroom for yesterday's proceedings was Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who took some parting shots as she left the courthouse. "The judge made her courtroom the Ministry of Truth," said Greene, who accused Judge Chutkan of 'destroying the First Amendment.'

• FUNDRAISING. The Trump Campaign quickly moved to raise money off of the judge's decision. "A GAG ORDER HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN IMPOSED ON ME," a Trump fundraising email stated. "BUT THEY CAN *NEVER* GAG THE AMERICAN PEOPLE!"

• POLITICAL SPEECH. In a sense, that fundraising email proved the judge's point - that Trump can still speak out on his case. But he needs to do it without attacking the people involved in it.

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SENATE. As the Senate returned on Monday, the focus was mainly on the Hamas terror attack against Israel and the need for the U.S. to swiftly approve aid for the Jewish state. "In the coming days, I will be working with the administration on putting together an emergency supplemental that will give Israel the tools it needs to defend itself," said Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

• GOP. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell echoed Schumer's remarks. "We have a responsibility not to look away," McConnell said, denouncing the attack that killed at least 30 Americans. "As Israel's closest ally, the United States must lead by our example.”

• AID PLAN. It's not clear yet how much the White House wants in new military aid for Israel - but the message from Senate leaders was that lawmakers need to act soon. "We want to move this package quickly," Schumer said. "The Senate must go first. I know that the House is in disarray, but we cannot wait for them."

• UKRAINE. It's possible aid for Israel will be packaged with aid for Ukraine, and extra money for the southwest border. "I'm agnostic to exactly how you get Ukraine and Israel done," said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), "but you have to get them both done."

• NERD NOTE. How does the Senate go first on aid for Israel? All of us know that spending bills must originate in the House - so, a House-passed plan with $300 million in aid for Ukraine could become the legislative vehicle for an aid package for both Israel and Ukraine.

SPENDING. The House Clerk had a welcome back gift for the Senate on Monday, as a Pentagon spending bill approved by the House on September 28 was finally brought across the Capitol. That means three of four government funding bills okayed by the House are now in the hands of the Senate, plus the supplemental spending bill which might become the vehicle for aid to Israel and Ukraine.

• SCORECARD. For those scoring at home. The House has approved four of the 12 government funding bills. Three of them have been sent to the Senate. Homeland Security is still in the House.

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NIL. Hard as it may seem to believe, there are other issues bouncing around on Capitol Hill. Today the Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing on the growth of 'Name, Image, and Likeness' payments to college athletes. Witnesses include the head of the NCAA, the Commissioner of the Big Ten, plus the Athletic Director at Notre Dame.

• SENATE. There are several bills which would craft national guidelines on NIL payments, amid concerns that state laws have created a patchwork that hurts some schools. "If we are to preserve college athletics as we know it, congressional action will be necessary," argues Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).

• ATHLETE. Senators will hear from Tiffany Thomas, a former gymnast at the University of Florida, who was one of the first athletes to strike multiple NIL deals. She made money doing ads for everything from a teeth whitener to energy snacks to Amazon and Google.

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CRIME. Republicans have made crime one of their big points of passion over the past year, arguing that Democratic cities are basically hellholes where you are liable to get mugged or shot on a daily basis. But the latest statistics from the FBI paint a much different picture of what's happening with crime nationwide.

• REPORT. The latest FBI data from 2022 shows crime statistics getting better in a number of categories:

  • Murders were down 6 percent from 2021

  • Rape was down over 5 percent

  • Aggravated assaults dropped by 1 percent

  • Robberies were up by 1 percent

  • Overall violent crime dropped 1.7 percent

• DISTRICT CRIME. Washington, D.C. is an outlier right now in terms of crime. Murders in the capital city have spiked, while they are going down in a number of other major cities like Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, and Chicago.

• TRIVIA. What are the top three crimes when it comes to what's known as 'single-bias hate crime' in America?

  • Anti-Black

  • Anti-Jewish

  • Anti-Gay (male)

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RAP SHEET. A Kansas man has pleaded guilty to two felony charges from Jan. 6. William Chrestman was a member of the Proud Boys; he wore a tactical vest and brought a gas mask with him to the Capitol. At one point, Chrestman helped prop open doors inside the building to let rioters in. He later pulled a rioter away from police custody.

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MUSE OF HISTORY.  October 17, 1814.  Still reeling from the attack on Washington, D.C. by the British, future President James Monroe - who was serving both as Secretary of State and Acting Secretary of War - provided plans to Congress on this date to deal with the military defense of Washington, and the nation.  Monroe suggested raising a permanent military force of at least 40,000 men, with an expanded corps of engineers, 'for the defence of our cities and frontiers.'

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LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:

The House meets at 12 noon.

The Senate convenes at 10 am.

Check President Biden’s schedule.

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