Freedom Caucus chair trails in Virginia

Ethics probe widens into Rep. Matt Gaetz R-FL

Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for June 19, 2024:

• Democrats press for more domestic spending.

• More bad news in latest deficit estimates.

• GOP trashes new Biden immigration plan.

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VIRGINIA. With about 1,500 votes still to count, the head of the House Freedom Caucus is in danger of losing a primary in Virginia. Boosted by the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, GOP state Sen. John McGuire declared victory last night over Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) - but it may take a few days to make that official.

• THE VOTES ARE IN. Leading by 327 votes, McGuire wasn’t waiting on the final tally. "The votes are in and the people have spoken," McGuire told cheering supporters, standing in front a sign which read, ‘Trump Endorsed.’ "It is an honor to be your Republican nominee,” added McGuire.

• TRAILING. "The entire DC Swamp was aligned against us," Good told his supporters last night in a statement, prepping for a possible recount. "We are doing what we can to ensure we have teams of observers and legal counsel to ensure all the votes are properly counted in the coming days."

• VOTES. A final vote tally is not expected until Friday, as mail ballots postmarked on primary day have until the end of the week to be counted in Virginia.

• REVENGE. One quick reminder - why did Trump want to defeat Rep. Good? It’s because Good endorsed Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida in the GOP race for President instead of Trump. That’s it. Nothing else.

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BOOMER SOONER. No other incumbents in Congress lost last night. There had been talk of a close race in Oklahoma, where GOP challenger Paul Bondar ran over $2 million in TV ads against Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK). But Cole didn't break a sweat as he rumbled to a clear victory, easily avoiding a runoff, getting 64 percent.

• GEORGIA. A Republican who pleaded guilty to Jan. 6 charges lost his bid to get on the November ballot for Congress. Chuck Hand was easily defeated in a GOP runoff by Wayne Johnson, who will be the underdog to Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-GA). Hand tried to get some attention earlier this month when he stormed off the stage at a debate. It didn't work.

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SPENDING. With Senate Republicans pressing to send an extra $25 billion to the Pentagon next year, a key Senate Democrat said Tuesday that she would go along with a funding boost for the military - only if the Congress also adds the same amount of money for non-defense / domestic spending programs.

• MURRAY. "Every Senator calling to boost defense spending alone is seriously missing the point," said Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. "And any Senator who thinks I will let us leave nondefense spending behind is seriously misreading the situation."

• BUDGET CAPS. In a Senate floor speech, Murray called for Congress to break a budget agreement from just last year, which was basically a two-year spending freeze, and increase the spending caps. "The caps mean just a one percent increase for nondefense and defense alike," said Murray. "That means net cuts in terms of real resources across government."

PARITY. The idea of raising defense and non-defense by the same amount has always aggravated Republicans. But they've often had to go along with that most of the time because of how often there has been divided government in Washington.

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GAETZ. Now we know why Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) launched a broadside at the House Ethics Committee on Monday. Yesterday, the ethics panel announced that it was continuing to investigate Gaetz on a number of fronts - including that he 'sought to obstruct government investigations of his conduct.'

• ETHICS. In a written statement, the committee said Gaetz is still under investigation for the following items:

  • Engaging in sexual misconduct and illicit drug use.

  • Accepting improper gifts.

  • Dispensed special privileges and favors to individuals with whom he had a personal relationship.

  • Tried to obstruct government investigations of his conduct.

GOOD NEWS. There was some good news for Gaetz. "The Committee will take no further action at this time on the allegations that he may have shared inappropriate images or videos on the House floor, misused state identification records, converted campaign funds to personal use, and/or accepted a bribe or improper gratuity."

• INQUIRY. Investigations by the House Ethics Committee are notorious for being rather toothless, so one must sort of marvel at the fact that this House probe of Gaetz is now nearly three years old - and still hasn't come to any concrete resolution.

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IMMIGRATION. Republicans and Donald Trump denounced new immigration actions from President Biden on Tuesday, as the GOP labeled it a 'mass amnesty.' But the details released by the White House painted a much different picture of the plan, which will help foreign nationals who are married to a U.S. citizen gain legal status and avoid deportation.

• LAW. Most Americans probably don't realize that if you get married to someone who is from another country - that person does not automatically get a legal status to live with you in the U.S. (let alone citizenship). This Biden plan would give those people three years to submit the paperwork for permanent residency.

• DETAILS. "On average, those who are eligible for this process have resided in the U.S. for 23 years," the White House said. "This action will protect approximately half a million spouses of U.S. citizens, and approximately 50,000 noncitizen children under the age of 21 whose parent is married to a U.S. citizen."

• GOP. You didn't hear any of that from GOP lawmakers. "Joe Biden’s mass amnesty plan will further incentivize chaos at our border," said Rep. Dan Webster (R-FL). "Joe Biden wants to green light mass amnesty for hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants," added Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN).

STATUS. The President's announcement hit home in a unique way for Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-IL), as she is the only member of Congress who is married to someone who is not a U.S. citizen. Her husband Boris is one of the immigrant 'Dreamers' who was brought here as a child - but is not street legal in the United States.

• ACTION. 'As the only member of Congress in a mixed-status family, the work to keep families and communities together is deeply personal," Ramirez said, calling the new Biden plan 'the most significant policy change for immigrants and their families since the DACA program in 2012."

• IMMIGRATION REFORM. All of this is yet another reminder that Congress has not been able to agree on any 'immigration reform' package since the 1986 Simpson-Mazzoli bill (which had an actual ‘amnesty’ provision). That’s why a President’s ‘executive actions’ have replaced legislation in making policy changes.

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JUNETEENTH. Today is a federal holiday, which means government offices will be closed in Washington, D.C, and that includes on Capitol Hill. The House is out this week, but the Senate will be back on Thursday.

• EMANCIPATION DAY. June 19, 1865 was the day that Union forces told the slaves in Galveston, Texas that they were free.

GENERAL ORDERS, NUMBER 3. "The people of Texas are informed that, in accordance with a Proclamation from the Executive of the United States, all slaves are free. This involves an absolute equality of personal rights and rights of property between former masters and slaves, and the connection heretofore existing between them, becomes that between employer and hired labor. The Freedmen are advised to remain at their present homes, and work for wages."

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CONFEDERACY. The day before Juneteenth, Donald Trump was talking about the South in the state of Wisconsin - which is not exactly a hotbed of the Confederacy. Trump was complaining about how the Pentagon changed the names of U.S. military installations which were named after Confederate generals and soldiers.

• TRUMP. "We won freedom from those forts and they changed the names," Trump said. "So horrible." (Trump actually vetoed a major defense bill in late 2020 over the Congressional plan to have the Pentagon review those Confederate names - but Congress overrode that veto.)

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COVID. A Senate panel on Tuesday delved into the controversial topic of how did the COVID-19 outbreak occur in China? Some had their minds made up even before the first witness presented testimony. "Why COVID-19 was likely a lab leak," blared a graphic from Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY). "My goal is to uncover the truth," Paul said.

• WITNESSES. At the hearing of the Senate Homeland Security panel, two experts testified that a 'natural spillover event' spread the Coronavirus, though they did not rule out a laboratory or research-related origin. Two other researchers said COVID-19 has a 'human origin' - arguing it was created in the laboratory.

• OPINION. More than anything, this hearing showed yet again that there is still a major disagreement among experts about the origins of the Coronavirus. And unless the Chinese government suddenly turns over all sorts of evidence from Wuhan - we may never know the answer.

• COVID. While most Americans have moved on from COVID, a large chunk of the Republican Party has not. For example, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) last week was praising an analysis of ivermectin, the anti-parasitic drug which was touted by many Trump supporters as a COVID cure - but frowned on by medical leaders.

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DEFICIT. The latest outlook on the federal deficit from the Congressional Budget Office is not very good. It shows that the U.S. faces oceans of red ink for the near term. The CBO estimates the deficit this year will be $1.9 trillion - with the yearly deficit forecast to grow to $2.8 trillion by 2034.

• INTEREST. Maybe the most depressing figure of all is the net interest being paid on the debt owed by Uncle Sam. In 2023, that was $658 billion. By 2034, the CBO expects that to be $1.71 trillion. I'm sorry, but that's absolutely nuts. Instead of $1.7 trillion being used for something good, it just pays interest.

• NUMBERS. The CBO sees revenues growing from $4.4 trillion in 2023 to $7.5 trillion in 2034. That's a healthy increase in taxes coming into the Treasury. The problem is that spending is forecast to go from $6.1 trillion in 2023 to $10.3 trillion in 2034. That's one big reason why the deficit shoots up.

• TRUMP TAX CUTS. Remember, this estimate *includes* a tax increase in 2026 when the personal tax relief under the Trump tax cuts expires. If the Congress extends those tax cuts, the deficit would go up by about $460 billion per year - or about $4.6 trillion over ten years.

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OVAL OFFICE. Several readers emailed yesterday to ask about the story I alluded to on Tuesday, where my father told my kids about how he ended up in the Oval Office - by himself.

• CAP HILL. My parents both started working on Capitol Hill in 1959. My father got to know one staffer who was married to Evelyn Lincoln - she was the personal secretary for Sen. John Kennedy. When he was elected President, Lincoln went to work for him at the White House.

• PAUL HARVEY. With Kennedy out of town in 1961, my dad went there to see Lincoln, and she gave him a tour. While in the Oval Office, some small emergency erupted, requiring her to get on the phone. She left my dad there - by himself - for about 10 minutes. And now you know the rest of the story.

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RAP SHEET. An Indiana man has been arrested on charges related to his actions on Jan. 6. Andrew Millard climbed into the Capitol through a window broken out by rioters, and later was forcibly pushed off Capitol grounds by police. Millard used a walkie talkie soon after entering the Capitol - but it wasn't clear from charging documents who he was communicating with.

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MUSE OF HISTORY.  June 19, 1974.  On this date, Sen. George McGovern (D-SD) told how the New York newspaper Newsday asked him to write an op-ed about Watergate and politics.  McGovern did so, but was angered by the headline.  "They entitled it: 'I Told You So,'" McGovern recounted in a speech on the Senate floor.  "The phrase is in bad taste."  McGovern put his article in the Congressional Record with the headline, "Reflections on Watergate and 1972."

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LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:

The House is back for votes on June 25.

The Senate returns on Thursday.

Check President Biden’s schedule.

Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree.

Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com

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