Democrats could boot Iowa in primary shakeup

Trump thumped by appeals court over FBI raid

Also in today’s edition of “Regular Order” for December 2, 2022:

• Congress moves fast to stop rail strike.

• Senators look for answers on FTX collapse.

• Kanye West gives the GOP more heartburn.

---

2024 SCHEDULE. As key Democrats meet this weekend in Washington, D.C., the party is poised to make a major change in what states will choose the party's next nominee for President. Instead of Iowa and New Hampshire leading the way, South Carolina would go first. The emerging plan was quickly met with fierce opposition.

• GRANITE STATE. New Hampshire Democrats immediately rejected the idea of being the second primary in 2024. "New Hampshire does democracy better than anyone else," declared Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH). "As our law stipulates, New Hampshire will go first," vowed Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH).

• SILVER STATE. Nevada Democrats also cried foul, and threw shade at South Carolina. "We strongly believe the first presidential nominating contest should be held in a competitive, pro-labor state," said Nevada's two Democratic U.S. Senators, Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto.

• HAWKEYE STATE. As for Iowa, national Democrats have long grumbled about Iowa’s lack of diversity, and the state’s caucus system. "Small rural states like Iowa must have a voice in our Presidential nominating process," Iowa Democratic Party chair Ross Wilburn said last night.

• NEW CALENDAR. The plan for Democrats would reportedly look like this, with five primaries taking place on the four Tuesdays in February 2024:

  • South Carolina

  • New Hampshire and Nevada

  • Georgia

  • Michigan

---

SCHEDULE. This would be one of the biggest shake-ups in the presidential primary schedule since the development of Super Tuesday, which brought together nine southern states in the 1988 campaign. There has always been jostling among states to go first - but this would be a very notable schedule overhaul by Democrats.

• PALMETTO STATE. For South Carolina, this would be a game changer, going from the fourth state to vote up into the top slot. Don't forget one thing - South Carolina saved Joe Biden in 2020.

• GEORGIA. Atlanta has been growing as a base of Democratic Party money and power - and this schedule would certainly confirm the importance of a state that surprised many by voting against Donald Trump.

• MICHIGAN. Along with South Carolina, Michigan was key to Joe Biden's win in 2020. The Motor City would certainly be an important stop - in a state where Democrats just swept into power in the state legislature.

• PRIMARY TUSSLE. Don’t expect New Hampshire just to give up without a fight. The Granite State jealously guards their ‘first in the nation’ status. We’ll see how this gets hashed out this weekend by a DNC rules panel. Stay tuned.

---

TRUMP LEGAL. Former President Donald Trump has suffered maybe his biggest legal loss yet associated with the FBI raid that found classified documents at his Florida home. A three judge panel from the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals ridiculed his legal arguments, and rebuked a lower court judge - appointed by Trump - who prevented the feds from using the materials seized in the FBI raid.

• JUDGES. "This appeal requires us to consider whether the district court had jurisdiction to block the United States from using lawfully seized records in a criminal investigation," the panel of judges wrote - two of them appointed by Trump. "The answer is no."

• ARGUMENTS. The ruling rattled off arguments made by Trump's lawyers - and rejected all of them - saying there was no way a former President could block a government investigation. And the judges specifically rejected the idea of using a special master to review what had been seized.

• WHAT'S NEXT. Trump could still appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. But that venue has not welcomed his legal arguments in recent cases. The ruling could also put us one step closer to possible charges being brought against Trump for having those classified materials at Mar-a-Lago.

---

RAIL STRIKE. Acting swiftly, the Senate voted 80-15 on Thursday to impose a labor contract on freight rail workers, sending the plan to President Biden for his signature, as lawmakers moved to avoid a possibly crippling rail strike. It was very bipartisan, as 37 Republicans joined with 43 Democrats in favor of the plan.

• SICK LEAVE. The Senate though did not follow the lead of the House on a plan to add seven paid sick days for freight rail workers, as that failed to get 60 votes to avoid a filibuster.

• BIDEN. "Congress’ decisive action ensures that we will avoid the impending, devastating economic consequences for workers, families, and communities across the country," President Biden said in a statement.

• NERD NOTE. I have to chuckle about how the Senate votes came down, because we suddenly went from everyone sitting around wondering 'how long will this take' to 'the Senate is voting in an hour.' Why? It was the wonderful power of 'Jet Fumes' - as Senators wanted to get to the airport and get home for the weekend.

---

FTX HEARING. Senators took a first look yesterday at the collapse of cryptocurrency group FTX, calling for legislative action in Congress to create a regulatory framework to govern those products. "The crisis created by FTX further confirms the need for a whole-of-government approach to regulating this market," said Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI).

• CFTC. The main witness was Rostin Behnam, the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. "We are here today because many Americans invested in a novel product and will likely lose money because digital asset markets lack the basic protections that we have all come to expect," said Behnam.

• WHY. I had a number of people ask me yesterday why this hearing was before the Senate Agriculture Committee. It's because the CFTC is under their jurisdiction - as digital assets are seen partly as commodities and partly as securities. It makes regulation - and oversight - somewhat complicated.

• REGULATION. Behnam denied that the CFTC is trying to hog any crypto regulation. "There's been a narrative about a power grab," Behnam told Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), repeatedly emphasizing the need for more checks on the industry. "This is the farthest thing from it. It is about filling a gap."

• ACTION. When will Congress act on new regulation? It seems hard to imagine it happening in the next couple of weeks. But sometimes things just appear at the last minute - late in a session of Congress.

---

END GAME. Congressional leaders would like to wrap up work for the year two weeks from today on December 16. But there is a lot to get done. One item is a major defense policy bill, which should have strong bipartisan support. It's now going to be paired up in the House with something even more popular in Congress.

• WRDA. House Democrats will add the defense bill to a big water projects bill (WRDA) which was approved 93-1 by the Senate. The move will make it easier procedurally, and probably even harder for critics to vote against the package. It's the Capitol Hill version of 'Too Big to Fail.'

• OMNIBUS. As for other big items, there's still no deal on a package of twelve government funding bills for next year. "I know you want to know the schedule," Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters on Thursday, "but we're not quite there yet."

• PENTAGON. Earlier this week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told Congress that it's time to get the military budget done - and not kick the can into next year. If there's no deal on an Omnibus funding bill, that could keep the Pentagon at 2022 funding levels, which Republicans don’t want.

• MARRIAGE. Pelosi said the House will give final approval next week to a Senate-passed bill offering federal protections to same-sex and interracial marriages. "There's immense joy and pride," Pelosi said, as she labeled the bipartisan bill a 'major victory for freedom.'

• THOMAS. Pelosi also noted that this legislative effort on marriage was spurred by Justice Clarence Thomas, when he openly called for landmark decisions on gay marriage and contraception to be overturned. That galvanized Congress to act in a way that never happened on Roe v. Wade. That's my column this week in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

---

REGULAR ORDER. Christmas is just over three weeks away, as the holiday season is upon us. Do you need a different kind of gift? Why not give the gift of straight news to one of your friends or someone in your family. The next few months will be very busy as Congress moves back to divided government - and “Regular Order” will be there.

---

MCCARTHY. Conservative Republicans and GOP groups on Capitol Hill continue to try to put public pressure on House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy to accept a variety of procedural rules changes - if he wants to be Speaker of the House in the next Congress. The latest salvo comes from the Club For Growth.

• RULES. "Instead of mimicking Nancy Pelosi’s regime, the new Speaker of the House should adopt the following reforms in order to return democracy to the House," said Club chief David McIntosh, a former GOP Congressman, as he called for a more open legislative process on the House floor.

• CAMPAIGNS. McIntosh not only wants to limit the power of the Speaker inside the House by allowing for more amendments - but also limit the Speaker’s influence on the campaign trail, by blocking the Speaker from raising money to help challenge any GOP incumbent in Congress.

GAME PLAN. In the hallways of the Capitol, McCarthy's future is on everyone's mind - especially since McCarthy once before was elbowed out of the way. Will he fall short again? What about the Freedom Caucus? Two experts weigh in:

• SCENARIO. "I think it's clear either McCarthy (probably) or Scalise (unlikely) will be Speaker," said Matt Glassman, a political expert at Georgetown University. "But if *neither* of them ends up Speaker,” Glassman added, “A bomb thrower like (Jim) Jordan isn't the compromise.”

• PRESSURE. "It's been difficult to peg whether this conservative reform move actually has legs," said Josh Huder, also at Georgetown's Government Affairs Institute. "But at this point, odds are more likely than not that McCarthy will have to cave to their demands or face a full-on insurgency," Huder added.

• TOP SECRET. So far, the Freedom Caucus has not rallied behind a candidate. But supposedly they have one - and it's not a member of the House. "It will be apparent in the coming weeks who that person is," Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) said in an interview Thursday. "I will tell you, it will be interesting.”

• FREEDOM CAUCUS. I'll say this about the Freedom Caucus - they have a great ability to make headlines. Their ability to maneuver and get stuff done inside the Republican Party leaves a lot to be desired.

---

I LIKE HITLER. The Republican Twitter account for the House Judiciary Committee deleted a pro-Kanye West tweet yesterday - after the entertainer said several positive things about Adolph Hitler. "I like Hitler," West said at an event with Alex Jones of InfoWars.

• KANYE. "Every human being has something of value that they brought to the table, especially Hitler," said West - who dined with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago just two weeks ago, bringing along white supremacist Nick Fuentes for an audience with the former President.

• TWEET. The tweet in question from the House Judiciary Committee GOP said simply - "Kanye. Elon. Trump" - tying together West, Twitter owner Elon Musk, and the former President. It had sparked controversy for two months - but was pulled down quietly on Thursday afternoon.

• DEMS. "Until a few hours ago, the GOP proudly stood by Ye," said Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-CA), referring to Kanye West. "Turns out being 'anti-woke' means appeasing extremists, racists, and neo-Nazis."

• GOP. Kanye's latest outburst also brought more GOP criticism. "I'm done with clowns like @kanyewest," tweeted Rep.-elect George Santos (R-NY).

---

STUDENT LOANS. The U.S. Supreme Court announced Thursday that the Justices will hear arguments on the legality of President Biden's plan to forgive some student loan debt. "The Clerk is directed to establish a briefing schedule that will allow the case to be argued in the February 2023 argument session," the order stated.

• BLOCKED. So far, the President's plan has fared badly in the courts, as the Supreme Court left in place an lower court injunction blocking the effort to forgive as much as $20,000 for those with student loan debt.

• GOP. Republicans have long said the President's executive action was not legit, since it used a law passed after the Nine Eleven attack - pairing that with a national emergency declaration dealing with the Coronavirus.

• WHITE HOUSE. "We will keep fighting," Mr. Biden said Thursday, as he accused Republicans of 'throwing up roadblocks in order to prevent middle-class families from getting the student debt relief they need.'

---

HANOI JANE. Yes, that was Jane Fonda on Capitol Hill yesterday, as she met with the Chair of the House Appropriations Committee, Rep. Rose DeLauro (D-CT), discussing climate change. "Jane's tireless advocacy on this issue is an inspiration to us all," DeLauro said.

• CAP HILL. It was three years ago in 2019 that Fonda was arrested multiple times in a climate change protest outside the Capitol, joining demonstrators in demanding action on the Green New Deal. This time there was no law enforcement activity or wooden shampoos.

---

MUSE OF HISTORY.  December 2, 1845.  As the 29th Congress convened on this date, President James Polk urged lawmakers to finalize plans to formally bring Texas into the Union.  "Nothing remains to consummate the event but the passage of an act by Congress to admit the State of Texas into the Union on an equal footing with the original states," Polk wrote, as he celebrated the move.  "This accession to our territory has been a bloodless achievement," Polk added.  "The sword has had no part in the victory." 

---

LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:

The House convenes at 9 am.

The Senate meets at 10 am.

President Biden’s daily schedule link.

Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree. Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com