Democrats brace for rough midterm vote

Daylight saving bill still stuck in Congress

Also in today’s edition of “Regular Order” for November 4, 2022:

• Trump still can’t win in Georgia.

• Paul Pelosi released from the hospital.

• Biden campaigns far from the 2022 battlegrounds.

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FORECAST. Going into the final weekend of campaigning before Tuesday’s midterms, the consensus among political know-it-alls here in Washington, D.C. is that things will go badly for Democrats in next week's elections. Logically, that is what should happen when you look at the history of midterm elections.

• COOK. One of the most prominent elections experts in Washington, Charlie Cook, sees rough times for Democrats next week. "I feel virtually certain that the House is gone, I think it's fairly likely that Democrats lose control of the Senate," Cook said in an online event on Thursday.

• NUMBERS. Cook's prediction is that the GOP will pick up anywhere between 20 and 40 seats in the U.S. House - and a net gain of one or two in the Senate, which would give Republicans full control of Congress. And he left the distinct impression that GOP gains could be even larger than anticipated.

• DEMS. You can certainly detect the note of concern among Democrats right now about what to expect. "If we can keep a Red Wave to a Red Trickle," said political analyst Rachel Bitecofer, "I think we're going to be talking pretty stridently about how strong a performance Democrats had."

• MESSAGE. Political experts remain a bit befuddled by the current climate. "There is no Red wave and there's no Blue wave," said Matthew Dowd, the chief campaign strategist for George W. Bush in 2004. "If Republicans had nominated normal candidates, I don't think there's any question about what would be happening," Dowd said. "They didn't."

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DEMS. Amidst all the hand-wringing, two Democratic strategists continue to express a lot of optimism about next week. "I'm focused on the early vote," said Simon Rosenberg, as Democrats certainly have voted in large numbers in a series of key states. "Kind of the opposite of a red wave," Rosenberg argues.

• EARLY VOTE. "The early vote looks better than it did at this point in '20," said Democratic data expert Tom Bonier. "That's a good sign." But Bonier admits Democrats still need to see a lot of younger voters turn out on Election Day - and that's not usually something to bet on.

• PUZZLE. The polls continue to pain different pictures - like in Georgia, where new polls on Thursday were split. Two had Republican Herschel Walker ahead, one by 4 points, and another by 7 points. Two other polls had Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) ahead. One by 2 points, another by 5 points.

• POLLS. I’m just going to keep wondering about the polls. In 2016, the polls forecast a big night for Democrats - and it didn't happen. In 2020, it was supposed to be another big night for Democrats in Congress - and it didn't happen. This year? Stay tuned.

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REGULAR ORDER. We welcome back our weekly subscribers. You missed a heck of a lot this week in ‘Regular Order.’ Why not upgrade to a paid subscription - or give the gift of straight news to one of your friends - and help put my kids through college! It costs the same as one of those ‘blue checks’ that Elon Musk wants to sell on Twitter.

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GEORGIA. Donald Trump still can't win in Georgia. A new poll in that state shows that in a hypothetical GOP primary matchup in 2024 with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis - it's no contest. Trump would lose by 16 points in Georgia, as the Echelon Insights poll gives DeSantis 52 percent to Trump's 36 percent.

• PRIMARY. Remember what happened earlier this year in Georgia. Trump wanted revenge on the top Republicans in the state for not doing enough to stop Joe Biden. But the effort floundered as Trump's candidates were badly spanked in the GOP primary races for Governor, U.S. Senate, and Secretary of State.

• RALLY. Georgia Republicans were actually worried that Trump might come back to the state for a late campaign rally - he wanted to - but they convinced him it would not help Walker’s candidacy. (There might still be time for a rally if that race goes to a December runoff.)

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CAMPAIGN. Former President Donald Trump kicked off a final series of campaign rallies last night in Sioux City, Iowa by urging his supporters to get to the polls next week. "This Tuesday, you must vote Republican in a giant red wave," he said. Trump will hold rallies on Saturday in Pennsylvania, Sunday in Florida, and Monday in Ohio.

• LAST NIGHT. Trump last night was certainly hinting about what everyone expects him to do - run for President again in 2024. "In order to make our country successful, and safe, and glorious, I will very, very, very probably do it again. Okay? Very, very, very probably."

• WHITE HOUSE. One former top aide to Trump fully expects him to make it official that he is a candidate for the White House. "I expect him to announce soon," Kellyanne Conway told reporters at a Christian Science Monitor Breakfast. "As he would say, wait and see."

• IMPEACH. During a radio interview on Thursday, Trump blasted Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell amid talk of a deal in Congress on raising the debt limit. "They ought to impeach Mitch McConnell if he allows that," Trump said. (We will nicely point out that Senators cannot be impeached. Presidents can.)

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BIDEN. President Biden on Thursday was far from some of the key states in the battle for control of Congress, as he held a rally Thursday with Democrats in New Mexico. "If we elect more Senate Democrats and keep control of the House, we're going to be able to codify Roe v. Wade as the law of the land," Biden said to applause.

• NEW MEXICO. Biden was lending a hand to Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and other Democrats running for Congress. "I'm here for an overwhelming reason," Biden told an overflow crowd in Albuquerque. "You got the best governor in America right here."

• BATTLEGROUND. Nothing against New Mexico - but it's not really a central player in next Tuesday's elections, as Biden did not stop in either Arizona or Nevada. If Democrats are losing key races in New Mexico next week, then it will be part of a much larger rejection at the polls nationwide.

• PENNSYLTUCKY. President Biden will join with Barack Obama on Saturday to campaign for Pennsylvania Democrats in the Keystone State. They will be in Philadelphia - while Donald Trump will hold a rally at the same time outside Pittsburgh.

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ATTACK. Paul Pelosi, the husband of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was released from a San Francisco hospital last night, six days after he was attacked by a man with a hammer. "Paul remains under doctors’ care as he continues to progress on a long recovery process and convalescence," the Speaker said in a statement.

• PELOSI. "Paul is grateful to the 911 operator, emergency responders, trauma care team, ICU staff, and the entire ZSFGH medical staff for their excellent and compassionate life-saving treatment he received after the violent assault in our home," Pelosi added.

• DEPAPE. The suspect in the attack, David DePape, is in the U.S. illegally, immigration officials confirmed on Thursday. DePape is from Canada. He entered the U.S. in March 2008 - not from Canada - but came across the border from Mexico at an official border crossing.

• MRS. GREENE OF GEORGIA. A mention of Paul Pelosi at Donald Trump's rally in Iowa drew jeers from the crowd on Thursday. "The only crime victim you hear about from Democrats and the media is Paul Pelosi," said Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), as the crowd booed.

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DAYLIGHT SAVING. The clocks will 'fall back' this weekend once again, as no final action has been taken in Congress on a bill to let states permanently stay on daylight saving time. Back in March, the Senate approved a plan to allow the clocks to stay on daylight saving all year long - but the bill remains stuck in a key House committee.

• STUCK. "We haven’t been able to find consensus in the House on this yet," Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) said. In a hearing earlier this year, Pallone said he wasn't sure whether he wanted the U.S. to stay on daylight saving time or standard time - but he just wants no time changes. "It’s time we stop changing our clocks."

• UNIFORM TIME. Current federal law allows states to stay on 'standard' time all year long - but not on daylight saving. That's why the clocks won't change in most of Arizona this weekend - as residents stay on Mountain Standard Time year round.

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TAXES. The Internal Revenue Service issued its latest report on the 'tax gap' - which shows Americans are now failing to pay over $500 billion a year in taxes legitimately owed to Uncle Sam. Republicans have made clear they like tax cheats more than the idea of helping the IRS collect what's owed to the U.S. Treasury. That's my column this week for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

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MUSE OF HISTORY.  November 4, 1811.  On this date, Henry Clay was sworn in as a freshman member of the U.S. House - and then, he was promptly elected as Speaker.  "I am sensible of the imperfections which I bring along with me," Clay told the House.  "I shall, with infinite pleasure, afford every facility in my power to the despatch of public business in the most agreeable manner," Clay added.  It was the start of a career in Washington which would include serving as Secretary of State, plus his time in the Senate, where he helped broker the Missouri Compromise.

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LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:

The House next has votes on November 14.

The Senate will have votes on November 14.

President Biden’s daily schedule link.

Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree. Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com