U.S. Supreme Court scrambles 2022 midterms
House gives final approval to gun violence deal
The U.S. Supreme Court rolls back Roe v. Wade. And Congress sends President Biden a compromise bill on gun violence. This is a special Saturday edition of ‘Regular Order’ for June 25, 2022.
ABORTION. Hailed by Republicans - and denounced by Democrats - the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday introduced a wild card into the 2022 midterm campaign for Congress, striking down the landmark Roe v. Wade decision. It immediately pushed abortion into the center ring of this year’s campaign for the U.S. House and Senate.
STRATEGY. The first reaction of the two campaign arms of House lawmakers was completely different. Democrats quickly kicked into high gear to criticize the abortion ruling, while some in the GOP acted like it never happened.
DCCC. "The GOP has eroded access to reproductive freedom for decades, and this final blow drags our country, kicking and screaming, backwards," the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said in a statement.
NRCC. While individual Republican lawmakers praised the ruling, it was a much different story from the National Republican Congressional Committee. If you read the NRCC Twitter feed on Friday, you wouldn't know there had even been an abortion ruling.
BOTTOM LINE. The logical focus for Republicans this year is inflation, rising food prices, and high gas prices. Does the abortion ruling spur Democrats to vote in large enough numbers to offset - or even overcome that? I really don’t have a feel for that right now.
CONGRESS. One thing is for sure - there is absolutely no chance that Congress will have any immediate meaningful legislative response to this Supreme Court decision - no matter how much Democrats talk about action in the Congress. The House has passed a bill to codify the Roe v. Wade decision - but a GOP filibuster blocked that bill in the Senate - and nothing is changing on that this year.
BIDEN. It’s the same story at the White House. President Biden can talk all he wants about taking executive actions - but nothing he can unilaterally do is going to come close to reversing what the Supreme Court has decided. Only actual laws can do that.
ELECTIONS. Democrats are also doing all they can to motivate their voters to turn out this November - in hopes of turning back the tide on abortion. Does that help Democrats in swing states - or in the suburbs? There are lots of theories. November will let us know the answers.
EXPAND THE COURT. Meanwhile, don't pay attention to liberal groups claiming that now is the time to expand the size of the U.S. Supreme Court. Democrats don't have the votes to do that, either. They’re not getting rid of the filibuster to do that.
STATES. For the most part, this fight now shifts to state capitals. Several swing states could become prime battlegrounds over abortion - presenting a political test for both parties in an election year. Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin would likely be on that list.
SUSAN COLLINS. One key vote for two Justices confirmed during the Trump Administration was that of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME). She was mocked relentlessly at the time by Democrats for indicating that she felt assured neither justice would seek to overturn Roe v. Wade.
MISLED. "This decision is inconsistent with what Justices Gorsuch and Kavanaugh said in their testimony and their meetings with me, where they both were insistent on the importance of supporting long-standing precedents that the country has relied upon," Collins said in a written statement.
CODIFY. Collins again endorsed the idea of Congress moving to codify a national law which allows abortion - instead of a patchwork of state laws. But it's too late for that. The nation is now headed for a time where the states do different things on abortion.
WHAT'S NEXT. Reading through a concurring opinion by Justice Clarence Thomas, Democrats say it's very clear what conservatives want to do next in the courts. "They are not going to stop at abortion," said Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH). "It's birth control and same-sex marriage next. Don't believe me? Justice Thomas said it himself."
ROAD MAP. What did Thomas say? On Friday, Thomas did lay out a plan for what he thinks the Supreme Court should do next - overturn landmark rulings which established rights to contraceptives, private consensual sexual relations, and same-sex marriage.
OPINION. Thomas wrote, "in future cases, we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell."
GOP. One thing that I have certainly noticed in recent months is an uptick in Republican attacks on same sex marriage, and the Griswold ruling on contraception. Those strike me as a bridge too far for many voters - but they have long been goals of conservative groups.
GUNS. Lost in the avalanche of news about abortion and the Supreme Court was a final House vote on Friday to approve a compromise gun violence bill, as the House sent the plan to President Biden on a vote of 234-193. "This package represents the most significant action to prevent gun violence in nearly three decades," Speaker Nancy Pelosi told the full House.
GOP BACKERS. 14 House Republicans broke ranks to vote for the bill: Chabot OH, Cheney WY, Fitzpatrick PA, Gonzalez TX, Gonzalez OH, Jacobs NY, Joyce OH, Katko NY, Kinzinger IL, Meijer MI, Rice SC, Salazar FL, Turner OH, and Upton MI.
OF NOTE. Four Republicans from Ohio voted for this bill. They represent the Cincinnati suburbs, Dayton, and two seats in the Cleveland suburbs. Salazar from Miami again voted for a gun bill. I still think many Republicans underestimate the trouble that guns can present the GOP in the suburbs.
BIDEN. Look for President Biden to sign this bill and make a big deal out of it. Even if this doesn’t do anything major in terms of gun control, it’s still a reminder that the Senate can get things done.
MUSE OF HISTORY. June 25, 1876. On this date, the Battle of the Little Bighorn began in Montana Territory, which would cost the lives of Lt. Col. George Custer and 265 U.S. Army soldiers. But it took nearly 12 days for the news to reach Capitol Hill. On July 6, Rep. Samuel Cox of New York first cited the "telegraphic rumors as to the Custer massacre," which prompted strident debates on the House floor over Indian policy in the West. Lawmakers would soon move to authorize a monthly pension for Custer's widow, and some even pressed to grant a pension to the families of all the men who died.
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House next has votes on July 12.
The Senate is back for votes the week of July 11.
President Biden’s daily schedule link.
Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree. Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com
I know I'm late but I had to catch my breath after yesterday. I'm going to go out on a limb here & say if the Dems can't turn the midterms around after this, they need to be replaced. Time for a new party altogether.
As for Clarence, I notice all the precedents except Loving was mentioned as up for grabs. Can't imagine how he'd argue that one. I also imagine Plessy v Ferguson could come up for re-evaluation.
Final thought: With the SCOTUS ruling on Thursday re: the NY gun law, any federal gun legislation, no matter how impotent, is DOA. It will be challenged in court by every gun-totting, red state.
Thanks Jamie. I hate to think of what comes next.