Sinema strikes deal on reconciliation package
Senate debate expected to begin on Saturday
Also in today’s edition of “Regular Order” for August 5, 2022:
Gucci Gulch waits on the reconciliation details.
The Jan. 6 panel asks for Alex Jones’s text messages.
Dick Cheney calls Donald Trump a ‘coward.’
RECONCILIATION. Democrats took a giant step forward on their health care, tax, and climate change plan, as Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) announced Thursday night that she would support the package. Sinema’s decision clears the way for weekend approval of the slimmed-down plan in the Senate, ending months of party infighting.
SINEMA. “We have agreed to remove the carried interest tax provision, protect advanced manufacturing, and boost our clean energy economy in the Senate's budget reconciliation legislation,” Sinema said in a written statement. “Subject to the Parliamentarian's review, I'll move forward.”
SCHUMER. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer did not mention Sinema by name, but said Democrats finally have a deal. "I am pleased to report that we have reached an agreement on the Inflation Reduction Act that I believe will receive the support of the entire Senate Democratic conference."
SATURDAY. The plan is to start Senate debate on Saturday afternoon, setting up an amendment 'Vote-a-Rama' on Sunday, where Senators vote for hours on all sorts of amendments. The rules provide for up to 20 hours of debate - but no Senate filibuster is allowed.
SENATE. Democrats were obviously thrilled with the developments, putting them on the verge of delivering another major legislative victory for President Biden in an election year. It won’t be the original Build Back Better plan - but it will still have some major items, including climate change efforts.
DETAILS. While we know the basic outlines of this reconciliation bill, we don’t have the final details as yet - the updated version is expected to be released on Saturday when the debate officially begins on the Senate floor. This is a link to the original 725 page version of the bill.
CARRIED INTEREST. The major concession to Sinema was getting rid of the 'carried interest' provision. So, that tax loophole will stay in place. It allows hedge fund, real estate, and private equity managers to have their profits taxed like capital gains - instead of at much higher income tax rates.
STOCK BUYBACKS. With carried interest out, reportedly a 1 percent tax on stock buybacks will be included in the bill instead. "It's excellent policy," said Chuck Marr with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Some experts believe it will bring about higher stock dividend payouts.
GUCCI GULCH. A lot of well-heeled tax lobbyists will be waiting to see the exact language of whatever changes Sinema won in the bill - as business groups scramble to figure out the impact of the tax changes.
NAM. "We are glad to hear that accelerated depreciation provisions are removed," said Jay Timmons, the head of the National Association of Manufacturers, "but we remain skeptical and will be reviewing the revised legislation carefully."
DEMS. Democrats know not all of the details in the final bill will be to their liking. "I have no doubt that each of the Democrats would like to craft the bill somewhat differently," said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). "But part of this process is we've got to get to 50 votes."
FREE FRIDAY. The Senate is not in session today, in order to give the Parliamentarian more time to go through the final changes in the bill. The Senate reconvenes at 12 noon on Saturday.
BIDEN AGENDA. If Democrats can steer this reconciliation bill through the Senate and into law, it would mark another big legislative victory for President Biden. He's had a very good summer so far, with approval of three bipartisan plans: one on gun violence, a bill to spur the domestic production of semiconductor chips, and the veterans health bill on burn pits.
DEMOCRATS. “This might prove to be the single most consequential congressional term in my lifetime,” said Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA), who argued it may be outshined only by the approval of the Obama health law.
HEALTH CARE. I’ve talked a lot about the tax provisions, but the health care items deserve attention, too. Two more years of higher subsidies to buy insurance under the Obama health law, and allowing Medicare to negotiate the prices for prescription drugs - that would save an estimated $288 billion.
RX DRUGS. “The significance of passing drug price negotiation over the objection of the pharmaceutical industry cannot be overstated," said Larry Levitt with the Kaiser Family Foundation. "Pharma does not lose often on Capitol Hill."
BIDEN RECORD. Reconciliation. Gun violence. Semiconductor chips. Veterans health. And don't forget the bipartisan infrastructure bill which passed in late 2021. President Biden has one of the stronger legislative records in the White House. But even with all of that success, some Democrats are spooked by simple questions about a Biden bid for re-election in 2024. That's my column this week in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
REGULAR ORDER. We welcome back our weekly readers today. Please think about upgrading to a daily subscription - or give the gift of straight news to someone you know, support my independent reporting from Capitol Hill, and help send my kids to college.
ALEX JONES. A Texas judge said Thursday that the January 6 committee would likely get two years of text messages from conspiracy theorist Alex Jones. That came a day after a legal blunder was made public - as Jones's lawyers accidentally gave away a digital copy of Jones’s cell phone to lawyers for families of the Sandy Hook massacre.
SANDY HOOK. Lawyer Mark Bankston said in court that not only did the Jan. 6 committee contact him, but also 'various federal agencies and law enforcement.’ "Things like Mr. Jones and his intimate messages with Roger Stone are not confidential," Bankston said on Thursday.
JUDGE. "I've been asked by the Jan. 6 committee to turn those documents over," Bankston told Judge Maya Guerra Gamble, who seemed ready to allow Bankston to forward the details to Capitol Hill. "I don't know that you get to stop that anyway," the judge told Jones's lawyer.
SO WHAT. Why is this of note? Because we know that Jones was involved in planning for Donald Trump's rally on Jan. 6. We know Jones was in contact with Roger Stone and other Trump associates. His cell phone could certainly provide the panel with more information.
GEORGIA PROBE. Local prosecutors in Georgia have told a federal judge that there's no reason Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) should get out of answering questions from a special grand jury probing Donald Trump's efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss. In a 29-page brief, the Fulton County D.A. says Graham's actions 'appear interconnected' with Trump's efforts.
CALLS. Going through Graham's public comments, the brief says Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has a much different recollection of what Graham said in two post-election phone calls. Raffensperger said Graham urged him to throw out vote-by-mail ballots in counties with high error rates.
BRIEF. Graham's "public representations about the “hypothetical” nature of his inquiries to Raffensperger are simply not consistent with his statements that Georgia needed to conduct an audit of all mail-in ballot signatures to find disparities or face 'civil war.'"
REMEMBER. The reason that Raffensperger recorded his phone call with Trump is that he felt Graham was not telling the truth in public about their conversations. Without a tape recording, we would never know exactly what Trump said to Raffensperger. Instead, it was clear to all what Trump was up to.
VOLUNTEER STATE. The Tennessee Primary made few headlines last night for Congress. One reason is that of the seven Republicans running for re-election in the Volunteer State to the U.S. House - only two had a primary challenger. And those races weren’t close.
NASHVILLE. Republicans used their power in the state legislature to carve up a Nashville-area district, forcing Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) to retire. The GOP primary in this Republican-leaning seat went to Andy Ogles, the Mayor of Maury County. He is the heavy favorite for November.
WASHINGTON. The votes continue to come in from Washington State, where two incumbent Republicans in the U.S. House are trying to hold off a pair of Trump-backed candidates. Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-WA) continues to hold a narrow lead in the 4th District, and seems likely to make it to November (Washington uses a 'Top Two' jungle primary format.)
WA-3. But in the Third District, Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) saw her edge over Trump-backed candidate Joe Kent slip to under 2,000 votes on Thursday. Those two are vying for the second slot in November. Democrat Marie Perez has already clinched one spot. About 50,000 votes are left to be counted.
LIZ CHENEY. If Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) is going to lose her primary in Wyoming later this month, then it looks like she is going to go down swinging. On Thursday, Cheney released a one minute ad featuring her father - the former Vice President and Congressman - who doesn't mince words about Donald Trump.
DICK CHENEY. "He tried to steal the last election - using lies and violence," the elder Cheney states. The rebuke of Trump doesn't stop there. "He's a coward. A real man wouldn't lie to his supporters," Cheney added.
EQUALITY STATE. In his travels around Wyoming in recent weeks, our Regular Order special correspondent - my father - says the Cheney race hasn't been getting that much local media play. He has seen few signs for Cheney or her Trump-backed opponent, Harriet Hageman. The primary is August 16.
DEMOCRATS. There aren't that many registered Democrats in Wyoming - but they can change their party registration in order to vote for Cheney. Among those making the switch is former Gov. Mike Sullivan. "Political courage deserves respect," Sullivan said in saying he would vote for Cheney.
PELOSI. Wrapping up a trip to Asia on Friday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had more tough words for the Communist Chinese government. "They may try to keep Taiwan from visiting or participating in other places, but they will not isolate Taiwan by preventing us to travel there,” Pelosi said during a stop in Tokyo.
TAIWAN. Ignoring threats and overt warnings from Beijing, Pelosi took a group of House Democratic lawmakers to Taiwan earlier this week. Their arrival drew huge crowds at the airport, and along their motorcade route. The group also made stops in Singapore, Malaysia, and South Korea.
CHINA. The Japanese government said China likely fired missiles over Taiwan during live-fire military exercises after Pelosi departed. "The Chinese made their strikes, probably using our visit as an excuse," Pelosi said after meeting with the Japanese Prime Minister.
MUSE OF HISTORY. August 5, 1974. On this date, the White House released transcripts of what would be known as the 'smoking gun' tape, which showed President Nixon had tried to get the FBI to halt its investigation into Watergate. Support for Nixon collapsed in Congress. "I now call upon Mr. Nixon to resign forthwith," said Rep. Charles Whalen (R-OH). "This admission so damages permanently his capacity to lead that I feel he must leave office as soon as possible," said Rep. Paul Findley (R-IL). "He must resign immediately or face certain impeachment," said Rep. Robert McClory (R-IL). Nixon resigned on August 9.
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
Next votes in the House will either be in mid-August or September 13.
The Senate meets Saturday at 12 noon.
President Biden’s daily schedule link.
Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree. Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com
"The major concession to Sinema was getting rid of the 'carried interest' provision. So, that tax loophole will stay in place. It allows hedge fund, real estate, and private equity managers to have their profits taxed like capital gains - instead of at much higher income tax rates." - I'm sure the hedge fund industry donations to her campaign coffers had nothing to do wth it. But an honest politician is one who is bought that stays bought .... Ms. Sinema will be ex-Senator Sinema after the next 2024 primary season.
In Wyoming, do Democrats actually have to "change their party affiliation" to vote for Liz, or is it more of a situation like in Georgia and here in South Carolina, where it's an open primary? When they walk in to vote, they are asked which primary they want to vote in, the R or D? Just curious. (I hope it's easy to switch. Liz needs support.)