Senate to roll the dice on border deal next week

House tax cut bill hits hurdles in Senate

Feb 02, 2024

Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for February 2, 2024:

Text of border deal expected out by Sunday.
SALT bill could get a House vote next week.
No charges for a nekkid Senate hearing room romp.

BORDER DEAL. After weeks of negotiations, Senate leaders have decided to finally release the text of a major bipartisan border security deal - which will be paired with billions of dollars in aid for Ukraine and Israel - setting the stage for possible votes next week. It's not clear if the plan can get 60 votes to break a filibuster; there could be a first procedural vote as early as next Wednesday.

SCHUMER. "We plan to post the full text of the national security supplemental as early as (today), no later than Sunday," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced on the Senate floor. "That will give members plenty of time to read the bill before voting."
GOP. Democrats say the future of the plan will be up to GOP Senators, who are already feeling the heat from Donald Trump and House Republicans. "This is an internal debate that they are having about whether they want to close the deal," said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), who led negotiations for Democrats.
TEXT. Some Republicans urged their side to check the facts first in the border deal, and not just reject it out of hand. "If we have a bill that on net significantly decreases illegal immigration, and we sabotage that - that is inconsistent with what we told our voters we would do," said Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX).
DETAILS. We've been hearing about these talks for weeks - but as I have repeatedly pointed out - we really have not had any good intelligence on what exactly is in this bill. There is nothing like the fine print to figure that out.

WHAT’S NEXT. I’m not quite sure what’s next in the Senate on this. Frankly, all the delay in finishing this doesn’t give me much confidence that it can survive. But the fact that they are still trying makes me wonder if it might have a chance.

WHAT IF. What if this bill can't get to 60 votes? Then I would expect the Senate to try to push ahead with only the Ukraine and Israel aid. Could that get 60 votes in the Senate? I’m not so sure about that either.

TAX BILL. A day after the House gave strong bipartisan support to a $78 billion election year tax cut package, the plan quickly ran into turbulence across the Capitol as GOP Senators demanded changes, and threatened to block the bill if Democrats tried to rush its approval on the Senate floor.

FILIBUSTER. "I would support blocking cloture on the bill," Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) told reporters, pressing for changes in the measure. "I think there's some work to be done," said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD). Asked if he thought the bill could be passed without changes, Rounds was blunt. "No, I don't."
GRASSLEY. The most overt threat came again from Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), who openly questioned why Republicans would give President Biden a legislative victory in an election year, since the bill includes provisions sought by Democrats on the child tax credit. (The plan also includes business tax breaks sought by Republicans.)
SAY WHAT. Democrats smell a rat. "Republicans want to fix the border but don't want to pass a bill to do so because they want to attack Biden," said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA). "And now they don't want to pass a tax cut for families because it's an election year?"

IMPEACHMENT. With the House seemingly ready to vote next week on two articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, the whip count now begins in earnest among GOP lawmakers. We know of one definite 'No' vote - from Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO), who told reporters on Thursday that this doesn't merit such action.

BUCKED. While Buck says the border is a mess, he argues this response is wrong. "This is not a high crime or misdemeanor, it's not an impeachable offense," Buck said during an interview on MSNBC, predicting Democrats would retaliate by impeaching Cabinet officials of the next GOP President.
CRIME. Democrats say it’s all about politics and not solving problems. "As Republicans barrel through with the impeachment of Sec. Mayorkas, our immigration system remains broken," said Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-TX).
MRS. GREENE OF GEORGIA. When Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) first started talking about the impeachment of Mayorkas, most Republicans rolled their eyes. Now the House is on the verge of doing exactly what Greene wanted, as things have come full circle for the controversial Georgia Republican. More in my column for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

OMAR. Speaking of Greene, she filed a resolution to censure Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) on Thursday, for what Greene says were Omar's 'recent treasonous statements' that violated her 'oath of allegiance to the United States.' What's this all about? It has an interesting plot twist.

SPEECH. At issue were remarks by Omar last Saturday in Minneapolis - where she spoke in her native Somali about a dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia. Republicans claimed Omar pledged support to Somalia first, Muslims second, and then the U.S. "She should resign in disgrace," said Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN).
TRANSLATION. This is where the plot twist starts. Omar and supporters say the initial translation of her remarks was simply wrong. A couple of Minnesota newspapers sought out an independent translation and confirmed that.
LOYALTY. "I categorically reject these disingenuous attempts to malign my character and question my loyalty to my home, America," Omar said. You can read the censure resolution against her at this link.

REGULAR ORDER. This was another bad week unfortunately for layoffs in the news industry - a number of familiar faces around Washington, D.C. are now out of work. You can support independent news on Capitol Hill by subscribing to ‘Regular Order’ or with a gift subscription. Or you can just buy me a cup of coffee.

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SALTY. Republicans talked a big game about going back to 'regular order' in the House. And then they have often done the opposite. That happened again on Thursday in the House Rules Committee, as the panel voted to allow debate on a bill sought by New York Republicans to temporarily lift the deduction limit for state and local taxes (SALT).

SCORE. What is odd about this tax plan? The bill appeared out of thin air on Wednesday night. No one knows how much it would cost. And it never went through the Ways and Means Committee, which deals with tax matters. Other than that, everything was hunky dory.
TALK IS CHEAP. Three members of the panel - installed as part of the deal to elect Kevin McCarthy as Speaker - had the chance to stop the bill. "This is not the way we should be doing things," said Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX). Roy voted against the bill - but Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) did not.
CATCALLS. Democrats called BS. "What the hell is wrong with this place?" asked Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA), who accurately noted that it has been eight months since the Rules Committee approved a bill which became law. "I think what we need is not prayer but an exorcism around here," McGovern taunted.

GOP PUSH. Why is this such a big deal for Lawler and other Republicans from places like New York, New Jersey, and California? Because the Trump tax cuts included a $10,000 limit on state and local tax deductions - which landed like a lead balloon with many of their upper middle class suburban voters.

PALMETTO STATE. The Democratic race for President officially gets underway on Saturday with the South Carolina Primary. This is the new primary schedule put together by President Biden, who won a resounding victory in the Palmetto State four years ago to take command of his party's race for the White House.

DELEGATE MATH. 55 delegates are at stake for Democrats, with a 15 percent threshold to qualify. There are only three candidates on the ballot - President Biden, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), and Marianne Williamson.
PHILLIPS. Remember - Phillips couldn't break 20 percent when Joe Biden was *not* on the ballot in New Hampshire last week. The Minnesota Democrat has been spending a lot of his own money - I don't understand what he's doing.
GOP PRIMARY. The Republican Primary is not for another three weeks between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. If you vote in the Democratic Primary tomorrow, you cannot vote in the GOP primary on February 24.

HOUSE SEAT. Today is the final day in Congress for Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY), who is leaving Capitol Hill to be the top dog at a major theater in Buffalo. "I've been here 19 years, I enjoyed it," Higgins told WBEN Radio on Thursday morning. "It's been a great honor and privilege."

NUMBERS. The resignation of Higgins will take the House to 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats, with four vacant seats. One of those vacancies will be filled on February 13, as Democrats are favored to win back the seat of ex-Rep. George Santos (R-NY).
HIGGINS. Back to Higgins for a second. He's a nice guy, but sort of an oddball. I saw him in the Speaker's Lobby on Wednesday, and wondered when he was leaving. A reporter asked him, and Higgins gave a total non-answer. I guess he didn't want to spoil his surprise.

CHANGE OF PLAN? Meanwhile in Indiana, Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) was making noise again on Thursday that she might change her mind, and actually run for another term in Congress. Nine other Republicans have already filed for the seat, including one state Rep. who has raised $1.7 million. Stay tuned.

SEX TAPE. Remember the story from just before Christmas of the Senate staffer who filmed himself having sex with another man in a Senate hearing room? The Capitol Police have done their review and decided no charges will be filed in the incident.

POLICY-LAW. In a written statement, police said while the situation was a 'likely violation of Congressional policy - there is currently no evidence that a crime was committed.'
THE FIFTH. The same statement said the Senate staffer, who worked for Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD), had not only resigned from his job, but also took the Fifth Amendment and refused to speak to investigators.
U.S. CODE. I wonder if someone will propose a new law at some point this year which makes it illegal to have sex in a Congressional hearing room?

RAP SHEET. A church worker from Missouri - who brought his mom into the violence at the U.S. Capitol - has pleaded guilty to Jan. 6 charges. Kyle Kumer joined other rioters in trying to crush police officers inside the Lower West Terrace Tunnel. "Kumer stated he brought his elderly mother to the tunnel to fully experience the moment."

BACK THE BLUE. A New York man has been sentenced to over 7 years in prison for attacking multiple police officers outside the Capitol on Jan. 6. The judge in the case told defendant Ralph Celentano that his actions were ‘disgraceful’ and ‘truly cowardly.’

MUSE OF HISTORY. February 2, 1950. Needling lawmakers from Pennsylvania who were pushing their groundhogs, Rep. Brooks Hays of Arkansas took the floor on this date to extol the virtues of the Arkansas hound dog. "All of the groundhogs of Quarryville and Punxsutawney could not cast a shadow across that hound dog's left hind leg," Hays said.

LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:

The House is back on Monday.

The Senate returns on Monday.

Check President Biden’s schedule.

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Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com

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Regular Order by Jamie Dupree

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