Senate border deal ignites immediate GOP furor
Backers start their search for 60 votes in Senate
Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for February 5, 2024:
House to take first step on Mayorkas impeachment.
Speaker: Senate border bill ‘dead on arrival.’
GOP to press aid for Israel only.
THIS WEEK. There is way too much news happening in D.C. The Senate tries to move ahead on border security. The House will try to impeach the Homeland Security Secretary. And on Thursday, the U.S. Supreme Court hears a Trump ballot case from Colorado.
BORDER DEAL. After months of negotiations, Senate leaders last night released a bipartisan border security deal tied to billions of dollars in military aid for Ukraine and Israel. While Senate leaders in both parties are on board, the plan met immediate resistance from many Republicans - and even some Democrats. Getting to 60 votes in the Senate may be a bridge too far.
LEGISLATIVE NERD NOTE. For those of you who want to explore this on your own, here are the key links:
The text of the 370 page bill.
The border provisions from Sen. James Lankford R-OK.
The background news release from Senate Democrats.
BORDER BILL. "Our immigration laws have been weak for years," said Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), who was in charge of the GOP side of the negotiations. "This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to stop the chaos and protect our nation," as Lankford said the bill offered 'huge wins' in terms of border security.
DETAIN & DEPORT. Lankford has the very unenviable task of trying to sell his own party on the product of these negotiations. The Oklahoma Republican says the current system is based on 'catch and release' - he argues this is 'detain and deport.' "Removal is carried out in days or weeks, not years," he said in his defense of the border details.
BULLET POINTS. Here are a few more items from Lankford's defense:
New limits on humanitarian parole for migrants.
New deportation authority stronger than COVID Title 42.
No migrants released with a hearing in 10 years.
Changes in asylum screening to limit accepted cases.
$650 million to build and reinforce border wall.
More agents for ICE and Border Patrol.
No provisions which promote a pathway to citizenship.
AMNESTY. As expected, some of the immediate attacks on the bill claimed it was nothing but amnesty for illegals - which it's not. But Lankford knew he would have to address it. This is what he put at the end of his 3-page defense.
SILENCE. What was the most notable thing to me last night in the hours after the text of the border deal was released? The lack of comment from most GOP Senators. Yes, there were a few who denounced it - but many Republicans were keeping their powder dry. This is like a multi-rail bank shot on a billiards table - it won't be easy to make.
SIXTY. There is only one number to watch this week in the Senate on the border deal - the 60 votes needed to stop a filibuster. If supporters can get 60 Senators to stick together, they can get this bill through the Senate. (But I can also come up with 370 pages of reasons for people to vote ‘No.’)
OPPOSITION. Overall, the GOP reaction was about what I expected. Rep. Randy Weber (R-TX) called it ‘a complete sell-out.’ "The Senate AMNESTY bill erases our borders," declared Rep. Mary Miller (R-IL). "This is not a border security bill," said Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL).
SENATE. Can this really survive? Put me down as skeptical, mainly because the GOP has been routinely opposing bipartisan deals related to immigration ever since the aftermath of the 1986 Simpson-Mazzoli immigration deal. But we'll see what Senate leaders can do in the next few days.
DEMOCRATS. On one side, Republicans don't think this bill does enough at the border. On the other side, some Democrats feel it does too much. "It is no surprise that this border deal misses the mark," said Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA), who pointedly noted that no member of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus was involved in the talks.
TRUMP. Padilla immediately singled out the changes in the asylum process - saying it echoed Trump-era policies - as did Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ). “Major chunks of this legislation read like an enforcement wish list from the Trump administration," said Menendez, who lamented the lack of relief for millions already in the U.S. illegally.
NUMBERS. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that if Democrats lose even more votes for this deal, it starts to become almost impossible to get to 60 votes in the Senate.
HOUSE. The reception from GOP leaders in the House was quite cold. "Let me be clear," tweeted House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, "The Senate Border Bill will NOT receive a vote in the House."
DOA. "This bill is even worse than we expected, and won’t come close to ending the border catastrophe the President has created," said Speaker Mike Johnson. "If this bill reaches the House, it will be dead on arrival."
ISRAEL AID. House Republicans are also laying the groundwork to undermine another part of this bill, aid for both Ukraine and Israel. Speaker Mike Johnson said this weekend that the House will vote on a standalone bill to fund $17 billion in aid for Israel - but not any money for Ukraine. The move drew criticism from both parties.
TURNER. "I'm very concerned about that strategy," said Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. "Ukraine has to be funded. We have to respond to Russian aggression," Turner said on CBS's 'Face the Nation.'
TACTICS. This would be the second effort by Speaker Johnson to peel off aid for just Israel. An earlier plan approved by the House included offsetting budget cuts - this version does not contain those provisions.
SUSPENSION. The Israel aid would likely be brought up under 'suspension of the rules' which requires a two-thirds supermajority for approval. Would enough Democrats and Republicans vote against this Israel-only measure to stop it? Right now, nothing would surprise me.
IMPEACHMENT. The GOP push to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas will take its next step today with a hearing before the House Rules Committee. The pair of charges against Mayorkas - centered on the large surge in migrants coming across the border with Mexico - is expected to come to a vote later this week in the full House.
GOP. "Secretary Mayorkas has refused to comply with the law and breached the public trust," said House Speaker Mike Johnson. The charges include 'Willful and Systemic Refusal to Comply with the Law,' and 'Breach of Public Trust.' While Republicans repeatedly have accused Mayorkas of lying and making false statements - they did not make that a specific charge.
MARGIN. Republicans have a little extra breathing room to approve this impeachment effort, as Democrats have lost one vote with the resignation of Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY). That gives the GOP a 219-212 edge in the House.
ON LANGUAGE. Someone had some fun with a turn of phrase in the GOP impeachment report. "This Committee, through these articles of impeachment, begins the process of deporting Secretary Mayorkas from his position," the report states. It's the only time 'deporting' is used.
PARLIAMENTARY NERD NOTE. A House vote to impeach Mayorkas would trigger a Senate impeachment trial, but I'm already hearing a lot of talk that Senate Democrats would swiftly move to table (kill) it before the trial gets going.
UNSALTED. Last week, a group of New York Republicans pressed for action on a bill which would temporarily increase state and local tax deductions for married couples who file jointly - an effort to roll back one piece of the Trump tax cuts. But that bill is not on the schedule this week in the House.
COST. Outside groups say the change is a giveaway to more wealthy taxpayers. The Tax Foundation estimates the cost at about $12 billion per year. "Taxpayers earning more than $200,000 receive nearly 77 percent of the total tax change," the group wrote.
ELECTION. I’m sort of surprised the SALT bill isn’t getting a vote before the February 13 special election in New York for the seat vacated by Rep. George Santos (R-NY). That’s a big issue on Long Island. But I also don’t think it would pass the House.
SOUTH CAROLINA. There was no surprise on Saturday for Democrats, as President Joe Biden won an overwhelming victory in his party's primary for the White House. Biden won over 96 percent of the vote in the state which launched him on his way to victory in 2020.
ALSO RANS. Only two other candidates were on the ballot. Marianne Williamson, and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN). Williamson got 2 percent, Phillips was at 1.7 percent.
DEANMENTUM. "Congratulations, Mr. President, on a good old fashioned whooping," Phillips tweeted. "See you in Michigan," Phillips added, after getting about 2,300 votes. It reminded me of Joe Liberman in 2004 continuing on after terrible showings, when he would say he had 'Joementum.'
WE MATTER STATE. President Biden wakes up today in Las Vegas; he held a campaign rally there last night. Nevada has a primary on Tuesday. (We’ll explain the weird GOP schedule tomorrow.)
ECONOMY. The latest jobs report was another good one for the White House and Democrats. 353,000 jobs were added in January, and job gains were adjusted upwards by 126,000 for November and December. Unemployment remained at 3.7 percent, and has been under 4 percent for 24 straight months.
TRUTHERS. On social media, the monthly jobs reports has now taken on the air of 2016, when every report was met with breathless attacks from Trump supporters who claimed the numbers were 1) fudged, 2) fake, 3) overstated, 4) understated, etc.
GUBMNT. The latest common attack line is that the job gains are skewed by new government jobs, which rose by 36,000 in January. That was below the average of 57,000 in 2023. Local and state government jobs accounted for about two-thirds of that increase last month.
METRICS. Is the economy perfect? Of course not. Are people still aggravated by high food prices and high gas prices? You bet. But every month that clicks off with a solid jobs report like this one is a winner for President Biden. Would you rather run for reelection with a jobless rate under 4 percent or above 8 percent?
SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE. Nikki Haley took her campaign to 'Saturday Night Live' this weekend, getting the chance to square off with a Donald Trump impersonator. It did not please some Republicans in Congress.
SAD TROMBONE. "You might gain some short goodwill from elite liberals but they will never vote for you," said Rep. Eric Burlison (R-MO), who called Haley's appearance 'an insult to conservatives and the Republican Party.'
RAP SHEET. A Tennessee man has pleaded guilty to a felony charge for assaulting police on Jan. 6. Devin McNulty at one point tried to take riot shields away from officers defending the North Door into the Capitol. 32 people from Tennessee have been arrested in this investigation, 14th highest in the nation.
VOLUNTEER STATE. Another Tennessee man was arrested last week, in part because of a selfie that he took on Jan. 6. That photo of Shannon Bitzer was sent by an anonymous tipster to the feds. Like McNulty, Bitzer tried to push through police at the Capitol's North Door.
MUSE OF HISTORY. February 5, 1858. The seeds of the Civil War were evident on the House floor on this date. Rep. Laurence Keitt of South Carolina called Rep. Galusha Grow of Pennsylvania a 'black Republican puppy.' Grow snapped back, and all hell broke loose. "At this moment, a violent personal altercation commenced in the aisle at the right of the Speaker's chair, between Mr. Keitt and Mr. Grow," the Congressional Globe recounted. "Fortunately, it did not last long," the New York Times reported, "and no weapons were openly displayed."
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House meets at 12 noon.
The Senate convenes at 3 pm.
Check President Biden’s schedule.
Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree.
Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com
If you want to say ‘thanks’ - you can buy me a cup of coffee.
I applaud you, too, Jamie, for your excellent reporting. Great substantive content with pithy headings. “Sad trombone,” which I could hear perfectly in my head! Hahahaha!!
You don't hear it enough, Jamie -- thanks for your tireless good work. I don't know how you do it, especially this year with the relentless negativity that has captured so much of the country. The Trump years and the J6 aftermath have left deep scar-tissue as bad as any I have experienced. I sometimes wonder if we are experiencing the aftermath of the civil rights movement which brought about the reversal of core values in the Grand Old Party resulting from the Southern Strategy.
Meantime, I have been reflecting on something called Project 25, a focused effort organized by the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation to reform the federal government into something more to their liking.
From what I can gather, the aim (perhaps even the name) preceded Trump, but his presidency has given the project the political velocity needed to keep it going, whether or not he succeeds in getting another term. Others do your own search and tell me I am wrong. I need someone to reassure me that this is not as ominous as it appears to be. Here is a descriptive link a year ago for those unfamiliar with this project.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/20/us/politics/republican-president-2024-heritage-foundation.html?unlocked_article_code=1.TE0.Jp16.HGANMoQ1zKdR&bgrp=t&smid=url-share