New York, New York - Speaker fights to save GOP majority

Campaign 2024 goes into 'garbage' time

Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for October 31, 2024:

• Republicans blast Biden over ‘garbage’ remark.

• No wait for GOP leadership elections in Congress.

• Another solid economic report.

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CONGRESS. While the race for President gets most of the headlines, both parties find themselves in an all-out sprint for control of Congress with five days left until Election Day. Four years ago, Democrats won the House by four seats. Two years ago, Republicans eked out the same four-seat majority. So, in 2024, another close election wouldn't surprise anyone on Capitol Hill.

• EMPIRE STATE. It's not hard to figure out what's important as Speaker Mike Johnson is spending several days in New York - fighting to save what could be the key seats to a GOP majority in the House. Johnson is hitting the road with ex-Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY), who became a national GOP favorite with a respectable loss in the 2022 race for Governor.

• NY POST. "In an election that’s been full of surprises, one of the biggest has been hiding in plain sight," Johnson and Zeldin wrote in a joint op-ed in the New York Post. "New York’s status as a battleground state is as unlikely as it is unshakeable."

• FAB FIVE. There are five freshmen Republicans from New York who won in 2022. They've all been on the target list for Democrats, and GOP leaders have been furiously trying to keep them all afloat. How these five do next Tuesday could determine whether Johnson stays as Speaker.

  • NY1 - Rep. Nick LaLota

  • NY4 - Rep. Anthony D'Esposito

  • NY17- Rep. Mike Lawler

  • NY19- Rep. Marc Molinaro

  • NY22- Rep. Brandon Williams

ROUTE TO VICTORY. All of us are familiar with the main swing states in the race for President. The map in the fight for the House is much different. The main House swing seats in play for this election are in New York, California, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Iowa, Nebraska, Oregon, and Washington State.

• WILD CARDS. About this time in a campaign, you always wonder if there are other lawmakers who might get swept away as voters make their final election choices. Some members are running scared. Others have no idea that they might be in trouble next Tuesday.

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NOVEMBER 13. House and Senate Republicans don’t want to waste any time choosing new leadership teams for next year, as GOP leaders plan to hold those elections on November 13 - the day after Congress returns for a post-election lame duck session. Needless to say, there are a lot of possibilities depending on who wins control of the House and Senate.

• HOUSE. The future role of Speaker Mike Johnson in the House GOP certainly depends on what happens next week. If Republicans lose the majority in the House, it won't surprise anyone to see Johnson booted from the leadership - with Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) seen as the most likely challenger. If the GOP holds the majority, Johnson would be favored to survive.

• SENATE. The outlook remains murky in the Senate, as Republicans must find a replacement for Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, who is stepping aside. Sen. John Thune (R-SD) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) remain the frontrunners, with Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) also expected to be a challenger.

• WILD CARD. What happens with Donald Trump in the election could also have a big impact on who gets picked for those House and Senate GOP posts. If Trump wins, he will certainly have a big voice in those leadership elections. If Trump loses, it may be a bit more difficult for MAGA forces to organize.

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UNFORCED ERROR TWO. Earlier this week, Donald Trump found himself on the defensive over a series of off-color remarks by speakers at his New York City rally, which included a joke about Puerto Rico being a 'floating island of garbage.' On Wednesday, Republicans turned the tables on Vice President Kamala Harris by skewering President Joe Biden for using the word 'garbage' when criticizing supporters of Trump.

CAMPAIGN PROP. The showman that he is (I don’t mean that in a bad way), Trump put on an orange safety vest and got into a garbage truck adorned with his campaign sign before a campaign rally in Wisconsin. Judging by what was said yesterday, look for the ‘garbage’ comment to be used repeatedly as a cudgel against Democrats over the final five days of the campaign.

• GARBAGE. As for Biden, it didn't take long for the President to walk back his words from a Tuesday night Zoom call with supporters. "I referred to the hateful rhetoric about Puerto Rico spewed by Trump's supporter at his Madison Square Garden rally as garbage," Biden said, "His demonization of Latinos is unconscionable. That's all I meant to say."

• GAFFE-O-MATIC. The episode was yet another reminder that Biden has always been a gaffe-prone politician. In this case, just like the comedian from Trump's rally, Biden gave the GOP the chance to change the subject. And Republicans in Congress were more than happy to bang that drum all day long.

• GOP. "Loving America does not make you garbage," said Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO). "Half of this country is not garbage," added Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-AZ), who also noted Hillary Clinton's use of the word 'deplorable' in 2016. "This is what they really think of us," said Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA).

• DEMS. Most Democrats tried to shrug off the Biden flap, but for some in tough races, they joined the GOP chorus of criticism. "Any elected official or candidate who calls Americans or America “garbage” is flat out wrong," said Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME). "We must lower the temperature on all fronts," added Rep. Dan Davis (D-NC), a freshman who holds a swing district in North Carolina.

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CLEANUP ON AISLE 46. Before leaving for a day of campaigning, Vice President Kamala Harris tried to get out of her boss’s way. It certainly wasn’t what she wanted to be talking about, a day after 75,000 showed up to hear her speech in Washington, as she held rallies in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

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LOCAL NEWS. I showed you yesterday how the Puerto Rico story had definitely made an impact on local TV and in local newspapers. We didn't see that yesterday about the 'garbage' remarks from Biden - but it still might percolate down to that level. Instead, Harris got boilerplate headlines for her rallies in three key states:

• "Harris rallies thousands in Harrisburg" - ABC27

• "Kamala Harris rallies voters in Raleigh to ‘fight to realize the promise of America’" - Raleigh News & Observer

• "Vice President Harris campaigns in Madison" - WMTV15

SECRET. Here's the dirty little secret that politicians know about news coverage - they're going to get much more basic (and often positive) coverage from local TV and radio than the major networks and Washington-based reporters. So when you see something like the Puerto Rico garbage story on local TV, you know it's hit home.

• TRUMP. While national news splashed the Trump garbage truck quickly into their stories, that didn’t happen right away at the local level.

  • "Trump rallies at Resch Center with longtime Packers quarterback Brett Favre" - Fox11

  • "Trump, Harris deliver pitches in dueling North Carolina rallies in bid to win state" - WRAL

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BOTH SIDES. One more thing - if you want to be outraged by Biden's 'garbage' remark - that's fine. But all you have to do is go back to September 7 when Donald Trump held a rally in Wisconsin, as he criticized Harris and Democrats. "They're scum and they want to take down our country," Trump said. "They are absolute garbage." I’ll let you argue about whether one is worse than the other.

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NEW MEXICO. I really can’t explain this. With five days to go, Donald Trump is holding a campaign rally in Albuquerque, New Mexico. I’m not sure why. Trump lost New Mexico to Hillary Clinton by 8 points in 2016, and lost to Joe Biden by almost 11 points in 2020. A win this year would be a huge surprise.

• WARNING. A leading Democrat sharply criticized Trump's visit, in rather dark terms. "He knows he’s losing," Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM) tweeted earlier this week. "These are Insurrection 2.0 rallies. He’s pumping up his supporters for denial and violence."

• PAYMENT OVERDUE. Trump's campaign still hasn't paid a $211,175 bill sent by the city of Albuquerque for a campaign visit in 2019. That tab has now more than doubled with interest. "Trump still owes Albuquerque," the mayor said, "and collections will keep reminding him about it until he pays."

OLD DOMINION. This isn’t the only curious campaign stop for Trump in the final few days of the campaign. On Sunday, he holds a rally outside Roanoke, Virginia. Trump lost Virginia by 5 points in 2016 and by 10 points in 2020. Like New Mexico, there is no reason to think that will change this year. Does Trump know something that we don’t?

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TERMINATOR. Former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger weighed in Wednesday with another celebrity endorsement for Kamala Harris - but it was couched mainly in negative terms about Donald Trump. "Let me be honest with you: I don't like either party right now," the famous movie star wrote on Twitter.

• TRUMP. In his post, Schwarzenegger ridiculed Trump's campaign rhetoric. "Calling America a trash can is so unpatriotic, it makes me furious," said Schwarzenegger, who quoted Reagan's famous line to describe the nation as a, 'shining city on a hill.'

• COME WITH ME IF YOU WANT TO LIVE. "We need to close the door on this chapter of American history, and I know that former President Trump won’t do that," Schwarzenegger wrote. "Vote this week. Turn the page and put this junk behind us."

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VOTER PURGE. The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday set aside lower court rulings that had blocked the state of Virginia from continuing with a program to knock suspected non-citizens off the voter rolls. No ruling was issued, but the Court noted that the three more liberal justices all opposed the move.

• GOP. Republicans in Congress hailed the Court's action. "It’s ridiculous that we even have to bring a case like this to the Supreme Court," said Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL). "Protecting the security of our elections for American citizens should never be a controversial issue," added Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC).

• CITIZENS. But as I showed you in yesterday's newsletter, this program in Virginia has come with some collateral damage - as in a number of cases, U.S. citizens who had done everything right, had their voter registration canceled, because the state mistakenly thought they were non-citizens.

• DEMS. "This only affects a small number of people but is a wrongheaded decision in light of clear federal law," said Democratic Party elections lawyer Marc Elias. What Elias is referring to is a federal law which says no voter purges can take place less than 90 days before an election.

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ECONOMY. The latest measurement of economic growth before the election had nothing but good news in it for the Biden Administration. It showed the U.S. economy growing at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of this year.

• WHITE HOUSE. President Biden took a victory lap on this latest report. "While critics thought we’d need a recession to lower inflation, instead we’ve grown around 3% a year on average, while inflation has fallen to the level right before the pandemic," Biden said.

• NO RECESSION. Democrats do have a point. When they passed the 'Inflation Reduction Act' into law, inflation was running at a rate of about 9 percent. Now, it's at 2.4 percent. There is one more economic report due out before Election Day - as a new jobs report will be issued on Friday morning.

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RAP SHEET. A 66-year-old Texas woman who attacked police inside the Capitol on Jan. 6 has been sentenced to 17 months in prison. Dana Bell grabbed police bike rack barricades outside the building, pushed her way into the Capitol, grappled with multiple officers, and grabbed one cop's police baton. At one point, she yelled at officers just after Ashli Babbitt was shot by police off the House floor.

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MUSE OF HISTORY.  October 31, 1807.  After a cold night, there were troubles afoot for the new House wing at the Capitol.  Architect Benjamin Henry Latrobe said water had dripped into the House chamber, in the new south wing of the Capitol. In one spot, a 'quantity fell equal to about a Wine Glass full.'  "When the frost begins I fear still worse consequences," Latrobe said in a letter to President Jefferson.

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LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:

The House next has votes on November 12.

The Senate comes back for votes on November 12.

Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree.

Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com

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