House GOP may be saddled with 1-seat majority
Democrats now lead in two GOP seats in California
Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for November 27, 2024:
Mexico's leader raises threat of retaliatory tariffs.
GOP steps gingerly on Trump tariff pledge.
Trump picks COVID lockdown critic to run NIH.
HOUSE MAJORITY. House Speaker Mike Johnson could be heading for a worst case scenario in Congress early next year, once two Republicans leave for jobs in the Trump Administration - a one-seat GOP majority. That's because Democrats now have the lead in the two of the closest House races in the 2024 campaign.
CALIFORNIA. With more votes trickling in last night in California, Democrats are now threatening to flip a pair of GOP seats in the Golden State. The latest vote drops in CA-13 put Democratic challenger Adam Gray ahead of Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) by 182 votes. (Duarte won this seat by just 564 votes in 2022.)
TONIGHT. More votes - possibly leaning towards Duarte - are likely to be posted this evening in results from two other counties, Fresno and San Joaquin. So, while Democrats may have the advantage right now, we'll see if that sticks just before Thanksgiving. A recount is all but assured.
CA-45. Meanwhile, in Southern California, Democrats last night padded their lead in CA-45, where Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) now trails challenger Derek Tran (D) by 613 votes. The final vote totals are expected next week, as county elections officials in California must certify their final vote totals by Dec. 3.
MAJORITY. If Democrats are able to win these two seats in California, Republicans would have the thinnest House majority since the 1930 elections. Here is the current situation in the House for the 119th Congress:
GOP 219 wins + 1 lead minus Gaetz = 219 seats
Dem 213 wins + 2 leads = 215 seats
119TH CONGRESS. Let’s go through these numbers again.
If these results hold, Republicans would start the new Congress with a 219-215 edge (the seat of ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) would be vacant).
On Jan. 20, Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) will resign to join the Trump White House.
Soon after, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) will leave to be U.N. Ambassador.
That would make the House Republican majority a 217-215 edge until a pair of special elections in April.
GOVERNING. House Republicans have already had trouble governing with more than 220 seats. Speaker Johnson - and the Trump White House - will certainly be tested, because at 217-215, it only takes one GOP switch to defeat any Republican bill.
ABSENCES. This will get a lot more attention next year - but we shouldn’t ignore it right now. It won't surprise me if Democrats make things easier for Republicans next year - by being absent.
NOT VOTING. For example, Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-CO) is due to have a baby in late January. And there have also been three Democrats with health problems who have missed many votes in 2024: Raul Grijalva AZ, Dwight Evans PA, and David Scott GA.
TRADE. President-elect Donald Trump isn't even in office yet, and he's already sparked the embers of a trade war with at least one of America's neighbors. A day after Trump vowed to slap a 25 percent on all imports from Canada and Mexico, the Mexican President very publicly said her nation would not be cowed by Trump's threats.
MEXICO. "For every tariff, there will be a response in kind," said Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, as she name checked major car companies like General Motors and Ford which have assembly plants in Mexico. "Why impose a tariff that would jeopardize them?"
MARKETS. The prospect of a trade dispute quickly hit U.S. auto stocks on Tuesday. GM shares were down 9 percent, while Ford edged down over 2 percent. Carmaker stocks also fell in Europe amid concerns that higher U.S. tariffs could spread to other nations as well.
CONGRESS. The reaction from Congress has been muted - partially because lawmakers are back home for a Thanksgiving break, but also because a number of Republicans don't like Trump's tough trade talk. "I will be vocal in saying that tariffs are bad," Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) said earlier this week on CBS's 'Face the Nation.' "I think tariffs are a tax on the consumer."
FARMERS. Also still observing radio silence about the new tariff threats are most U.S. farm groups - even though they know what happened when Trump raised tariffs during his first term in office. When other nations retaliated, it led to a massive federal bailout for U.S. farmers.
GOP. I still think the best explanation I've seen from a Republican member of Congress came from Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX). Asked about Trump's tariff threats, Nehls stated the obvious about the GOP. "If Trump says tariffs work, tariffs work," Nehls told reporters. "Donald Trump is never wrong."
MEXICO. Someone asked me yesterday why they should worry about tariffs on imports from Mexico. Most people don't realize how much Mexico is involved in the American food supply chain - especially when it comes to fruits and vegetables. Just imagine prices going up on all those items by 25 percent.
TAX CUTS. The biggest bill next year for Republicans will be the centerpiece of the Trump agenda - extending the Trump tax cuts which expire at the end of 2025. The GOP will have to come up with a bill that is acceptable to just about everyone, because Republicans will have a small majority and a small margin for error.
SALTY. One flashpoint is already emerging, as lawmakers from high tax states want Trump to allow taxpayers to write off more in state and local taxes - the SALT deduction. "I remain steadfast in my commitment to voting against any omnibus tax package that fails to include a reasonable increase in the SALT deduction," said Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY).
LONE STAR. Normally, other lawmakers might ignore those kind of declarations. But not the current House GOP. "If we screw around on petty regional issues like SALT or personal grievances, we will not only fail in that mission, we will pay the price in the 2026 midterm elections," said Rep. Keith Self (R-TX).
SHOW ME. In charge of that budget reconciliation tax package will be Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO), the Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. It's a legislative foray which could define his career - and it won't be easy - simply because of the vast array of legislative provisions which might get tucked into that bill.
RECONCILIATION. "I've heard countless stories of the record growth and prosperity unleashed thanks to the Trump tax cuts," Smith said this week. He'll have to find a way to forge a package which keeps his party together - navigating around what may be a historically small majority in the House.
NIH. Back in 2020 during the Coronavirus outbreak, COVID lockdowns enraged many Republicans. One of the harshest critics was Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University. The head of the National Institutes of Health at the time dismissed Bhattacharya as a 'fringe epidemiologist.' Now Bhattacharya has been tapped by President-elect Donald Trump to run the NIH.
TRUMP. "Dr. Bhattacharya will work in cooperation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to direct the Nation’s Medical Research, and to make important discoveries that will improve Health, and save lives," Trump said last night in a statement.
REFORMS. Republicans in Congress praised the pick, calling on Bhattacharya to lead reforms within NIH, which is the premier government health research agency. Democrats fear that Bhattacharya will purge hundreds of experts and researchers. Bhattacharya will need Senate confirmation.
LOOKING AHEAD. The House floor schedule for next week is out, and it doesn't have anything big at this time. There are 22 bills to name post offices around the nation. There is also a bill titled the "Crucial Communism Teaching Act." Can't make this stuff up.
STOPGAP. While Speaker Mike Johnson has said he wants a temporary funding plan (CR) to go into March, we haven't seen the details of that. Congress has until the Friday before Christmas - Dec. 20 - to get that work done.
CR. Not all Republicans are on board with that idea. "Congress must not pass another CR under any circumstances," Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) said on Tuesday - arguing correctly that it would continue existing Biden Administration policies on a host of issues.
RAP SHEET. A Texas man has been sentenced to nearly two years in prison for his actions on Jan. 6. Dustin Williams repeatedly shoved and pushed police outside the Capitol. "There's a lot more coming, motherfucker," Williams shouted at officers at one point. In a video recorded the next day, Williams blamed the violence on Antifa - claiming they dressed up as pro-Trump protestors.
MUSE OF HISTORY. November 27, 1922. On this date, the Senate approved a bill which allowed Justice Mahlon Pitney to retire from the Supreme Court after suffering a stroke. "Everything indicates that he is incapacitated and will be incapacitated for performing any such labor as is required of a Justice," said Sen. Knute Nelson of Minnesota. Senators placed in the Record letters from four physicians confirming that observation. Pitney resigned on December 31.
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House next has votes on Dec 3.
The Senate is back for votes on Dec 2.
Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree.
Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com
If you want to say ‘thanks’ - you can buy me a cup of coffee.
War & Tyranny in the 20th century is the focus of my 9th grader's history this year (we homeschool), so the communism act caught my eye. The text of the bill starts out rather innocuous & generic. And as the bill went on, the names of those testifying in various hearings went from rather mainstream voices to...Heritage Foundation & Ryan Walters (of Trump Bibles in the classroom fame).
And then we come to the stated purpose. Its purpose isn't to help students understand the details of communism, how & why countries 'choose' communism, examining the complex history of communism, the West's role in the history of communism, how it plays out in modern politics. Nope.
Stated purposes for teens to understand:
1. that communism has led to 100,000,000+ deaths
2. the dangers of communism & other similar ideologies
3. that 1,500,000,000 people still suffer under communism
While the significant impacts of communism ARE important to know, that the bill focuses solely on those points and not a actual understanding of communism & it's role in shaping the 20th century....well, it leads me to some definite conclusions about the purpose.
The minority's response is worth reading, too. The whole text is only 14 pages, so it's a quick read.
Is it my imagination or is Donald Trump avoiding being seen in public? I have come across that question a couple of times and it stays in the back of my mind. The usual clips keep coming from his social media platforms but that's a much safer way to communicate if someone old (like me) wants to avoid the inevitable clumsy mistakes and memory lapses that happen more often.
Before I stopped working altogether I spent nearly a decade working with other old people and to me he appears to have the markers of a sundowning geriatric case. Look it up.