Haley tries to stop Trump in New Hampshire
Trump predicts bigger than expected win today
From Concord, New Hampshire -
Also in today’s special edition of ‘Regular Order’ for January 23, 2024:
Joe Biden tries to win as a write-in candidate.
George Santos goes back to court.
Senators inch ahead on a border security deal.
GRANITE STATE. With elections officials expecting record turnout, there are two ways to look at today's New Hampshire Primary. With a win, Donald Trump could wrap up the GOP nomination after just two states. It's also a chance for Nikki Haley to stay alive, as she has seen a surge of voters at her events since Ron DeSantis dropped out on Sunday.
GOP RACE. "We have a two person race,” Haley said in her final rally in Salem, New Hampshire, again accusing Trump of lying about her record both on the stump and in attack ads. "I'll say this - if you gotta lie to win, you don't deserve to win," said Haley.
NOVEMBER. Haley has repeatedly stressed her electability as compared to Trump, citing polls which show Trump struggling to win key states in November. "Trump and Biden - it's a dead heat," Haley said. "I'm in every one of those same general election polls, and I defeat Biden by up to 17 points."
LOSER. Campaigning with Haley, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu openly called Trump a 'loser' - noting how he has dragged down GOP efforts to win back the U.S. House and Senate. "We're tired of losing," Sununu yelled last night, noting the 2022 midterms. "Hey Donald Trump - where the F is the red wave?"
SOLE SURVIVOR. As you listen to New Hampshire voters who came to Haley events in recent days, it's clear that a number of them did not start out as Haley supporters. She is simply the last Republican standing who is not named Trump.
ANTI-TRUMP. Think of it this way - today's primary may not be so much of a vote to measure support for Nikki Haley, but maybe more of a vote to measure how many Republicans and Independents don't want to back Donald Trump.
LAST RALLY. Trump spent part of Monday in a New York courtroom, arriving last night in New Hampshire for a final rally in Laconia, where he zeroed in repeatedly on his only opponent. "Nikki is easy to beat," Trump declared. "I believe she's not electable."
PREDICTION. Trump was openly predicting a big win today. "We're leading in New Hampshire by a lot," Trump said. "The numbers in my opinion will be higher than what you're seeing," as he urged his backers to turn out.
FAIRTAX. Trump continued to jab at Haley over her support for the FairTax, a plan long championed by conservative Republicans to replace the federal income tax system. "Nikki Haley wants to charge the working class a 23 percent national sales tax," said Trump.
HECKLERS. Even though it was a small venue, several protesters were hauled out of the room after interrupting Trump's remarks. "Going home to mom," Trump said of one woman heckler.
VP AUDITION. Trump had three of his former rivals on stage with him last night to address the crowd - Vivek Ramaswamy, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC). "If you want the race to be over tomorrow, let me hear you scream!" Scott said to cheers.
JANUARY 6. Trump again referred to those convicted of crimes on January 6 as 'hostages.' "Free the J6'ers,' someone yelled from the crowd, referring to people who tried to keep Trump in power after he lost the 2020 election. "We will," Trump responded.
SPEECH. Have you watched a Trump campaign speech in full? He still goes for well over an hour. It combines his personal grievances with cryptic mentions about popular stories in conservative media. And it ends with him speaking over dramatic music. “2024 is our final battle,” Trump says.
HALEY. It’s clear that Haley had an opening over the weekend here in New Hampshire - especially after Trump did that weird mention of Haley related to Jan. 6, and then when DeSantis dropped out on Sunday. But while her crowds grew larger, Haley didn't really change her standard stump speech.
TACTICS. As for that Jan. 6 verbal miscue by Trump - where he confused Haley repeatedly with Nancy Pelosi - Haley pretty much ignored it in her final stops. Yes, she does jab at Trump’s age, but didn’t go near the Jan. 6 attack.
SUNUNU. Haley's languid messaging was especially obvious as you listened to Gov. Sununu, who had a very tightly focused speech of just three minutes. "We are tired of losers and we're tired of losing," Sununu said of Trump.
GOVERNOR. But as we saw last week in Iowa - the endorsement of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds did not stop Donald Trump. And Sununu may find himself in a similar situation tonight. The polls open at 7 am and fully close at 8 pm ET.
STAKES. Everyone knows the stakes today. A strong Trump win and the GOP race is over. A Haley upset - like Pat Buchanan in 1996 over Bob Dole - could signal trouble for Trump. What if Haley turns in a Eugene McCarthy type of finish from 1968, losing by single digits? Then the race might still go on.
CROWDS. Yes, Haley definitely is attracting more people to her events in recent days. The campaign had a big overflow room at her final rally last night. She clearly has late momentum. But Trump remains the favorite.
REPORTER’S NOTEBOOK. Every reporter does things differently on the trail, but the basics are much the same. You listen to candidates, talk with voters, and see what you can pry out of campaign aides and party officials. I also like to do one other thing while driving around - listen to the radio.
LEGAL PAD. I like to use local radio to get a feel for what's happening. It leads to me scribbling all sorts of notes on a yellow legal pad for later. Here are some Monday highlights from my notes:
‘Talk radio is full tilt against Haley.’
"Nikki Haley is a pretender."
"She is such a freaking weasel."
"I hope (Trump) crushes her."
TALK RADIO. What was really notable on Monday morning was how New Hampshire talk radio focused on Ron DeSantis getting out of the GOP race - but didn't take the next step to emphasize the Haley-Trump showdown. These hosts (and most of their callers) are all-in with Trump, and want to knock Haley out today.
CAMPAIGN. Everyone tries to reinvent the wheel at some point on the campaign trail. From the rope line used by Bill Clinton's staff in 1992 to restrain reporters, to the Trump campaign blocking reporters from interviewing Trump supporters at his rallies - there's always a cockamamie idea for how to deal with the press. Now here's a new one from 2024.
TOP SECRET. On the final day before the New Hampshire Primary, the candidates usually swarm all over the state, making as many stops as possible, with reporters rushing like mad to track them. This year - there is really only one game in town - that being Nikki Haley, since Trump only does one event. But the Haley campaign decided on something different - secret campaign stops.
NOTE. "Due to limited space, this is for invited press only," the campaign noted about three scheduled Get Out the Vote stops - for Haley and Gov. Chris Sununu on Monday. No event details were released to the general press.
PRESS. Obviously, the TV networks and other media bigwigs will get that information - which is just fine. But when you limit access by the press, you also limit the reach of your message.
TEAM HALEY. In Monday's newsletter, I told you how the Trump campaign rejected requests to cover their events. The same thing happened for last night's final Haley rally - with an extra warning to us pesky reporters:
DENIED. Don't take these rejections as something personal against me. Rather, this is a function of a small candidate field - there's only Trump and Haley right now - and the fact that New Hampshire attracts a huge number of reporters, especially foreign journalists.
CAMPAIGN TRAIL. I want to say ‘thanks’ to those of you who chipped in to help offset the cost of this trip to New Hampshire. Your support is greatly appreciated. I did find some gas on Monday at $2.78/gallon - perfect for the tight Dupree campaign budget. If you would like to buy a couple of gallons, you can do that at this link.
FRAUD. If you dig deep into the latest poll from New Hampshire done by Monmouth University and the Washington Post, there are some hair-raising data points related to the never-ending false claims by Donald Trump that he lost in 2020 because of election fraud. It shows how clearly the GOP has swallowed the Big Lie from Trump.
2020 ELECTION. Here's the question that was asked: "Do you believe Joe Biden won the 2020 election fair and square, or do you believe that he only won it due to voter fraud?"
GOP. For those voting for Trump, they think - by 82 to 11 percent - that Biden won only due to fraud. For those voting for Haley, they think - by 87 to 8 percent - that Biden won fair and square.
DEMS. There is a primary today for Democrats - but Joe Biden is not on the ballot. Why? Because the national Democratic Party knocked New Hampshire out of the first primary slot, replacing it with South Carolina. No delegates are at stake - but the race has attracted some who want to make a splash.
MINNESOTA NICE. Making the biggest push has been Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN). Once seen as someone ready to move up in Congress, Phillips has instead burned bridges inside the Democratic Party by pressing his candidacy here - hoping to win the primary and get some attention.
PHILLIPS. "Joe Biden is a good man," Phillips told voters in Nashua, New Hampshire on Monday, as he argued that voters don't want a race between Biden and Trump in November. "But it is time for change - the country wants it."
WRITE-IN. Local Democrats organized their own PAC - Granite for America - and used that to fund efforts for a write-in campaign for Biden. I would be very surprised if that write-in effort fails today.
BORDER TALKS. As the Senate returned to work on Monday, border security negotiations kept inching along. Senators met through the weekend and everyone is still saying the right things. "President Biden has also made clear he is willing to work with Republicans in a big way – in a big way – on border security," said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
SCHUMER. "Senators don’t need to be reminded what’s at stake in this negotiation. The future of the war in Ukraine hangs in the balance," Schumer said, as Republicans have vowed to oppose aid for Ukraine unless a deal is struck on stepped up border policies.
GOP. "The entire world understands what's at stake here in the Senate in the coming weeks," said Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, who again lent his support to bipartisan talks on the border, saying it may produce 'the most substantial border security policy in 30 years.'
TEXT. Until there is actual bill text, no debate will start on the Senate floor. There had been talk of that happening this week - but, not yet. It's safe to say that Senators still believe they can come to a bipartisan deal. Whether that can get approved by the House is a whole different issue.
A TRAP? Speaking of the House, some Republicans are worried they are falling into a trap on this. "Biden wants to reach a bipartisan deal with Senate Republicans, then have the House not pass it," Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) told Fox News last night. "And then he can go around saying, ‘Look, we tried. The crazy Republican MAGA people in the House wouldn't do it.’”
GOP. There is definitely that risk for Republicans. That's why I think there will be a very big push by opponents of any border deal to see if they can kill it in the Senate. On talk radio yesterday, I heard people saying the bill will give amnesty to 11 million illegal immigrants. (Narrator: No it won’t.)
INFRASTRUCTURE. Democrats and the White House publicly called out a Minnesota Republican in Congress on Monday, after Rep. Pete Stauber (R-MN) took credit for money being funneled to build a new bridge between Duluth, Minnesota and Superior, Wisconsin.
FUNDING. "Stauber Announces One Billion Dollar Grant to Replace Blatnik Bridge," bellowed the headline on the Congressman's press release. But Stauber did not detail how he voted against both the infrastructure law as well as a bill to fund projects under that law.
DEMS. "Mr. Stauber voted against every screw, steel beam, and concrete pier in this bridge," said Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN). "You voted against President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law but are taking credit for it," the White House tweeted.
VIVA DE LA SANTOS. Ex-Rep. George Santos (R-NY) is scheduled to be back in federal court today on Long Island, but there does not appear to be any plea bargain ready in his corruption case - at least, not right now. Two new attorneys signed up for Santos yesterday on the court’s docket.
FEDS. In a letter to the judge in charge of the case, U.S. Attorney Breon Peace set out a proposed schedule for a trial starting in September for Santos. Peace said that would also give time 'for the parties to pursue plea negotiations.'
DIFFERENT. Back in December, Peace directly said the two sides were 'presently engaged in plea negotiations' - but evidently those have not been successful. Not yet.
RAP SHEET. Twin brothers from Dayton, Ohio are scheduled to plead guilty today to charges tied to Jan. 6. Along with other rioters, Steven and Robert Hanna entered the Capitol through the door near the Senate Parliamentarian's office. They initially tried to climb through a broken window.
TAPES. House Republicans have released another batch of Jan. 6 security tapes, which do little to shed light on the events of that day. The video is again from cameras up high on the Capitol and Capitol Dome. They show the mass of Trump supporters marching on the Capitol from far away.
MUSE OF HISTORY. January 23, 1974. On this date, Congress was back in session, and the plight of President Nixon and the Watergate scandal was topping the agenda for many lawmakers. "Every weekday during the recess I stood for an hour at the subway stations in my district talking with constituents," said Rep. Ed Koch (D-NY). "Every day I was confronted by the same exclamations: 'Impeach him.'"
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House next has votes on Jan. 29.
The Senate convenes at 10 am.
Check President Biden’s schedule.
Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree.
Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com
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In a parallel universe somewhere, there’s a version of this dumpster fire where the GOP called out TFG for his lies & abysmal behavior, impeached him for J6, spoke truth to power, and boldly stated they made a mistake the first time and have learned from their mistake. Because he was impeached TFG couldn’t run so the GOP was able to focus on more productive work that actually impacts the people of our country, focus on running a decent candidate, cleaned house of TFG’s enablers, and as a result there was no Freedom Caucus around to add fuel to the fire of dysfunction.
Re: “As for that Jan. 6 verbal miscue by Trump - where he confused Haley repeatedly with Nancy Pelosi - Haley pretty much ignored it in her final stops. Yes, she does jab at Trump’s age, but didn’t go near the Jan. 6 attack.”
Because why would you use to your campaign’s benefit, a blatant display of your double digit-leading opponent’s addled tapioca pudding-like brain, gift wrapped and handed to you on a silver platter. 🤦♂️