GOP taps Scalise, then leaves him in limbo
Unclear if House will vote today on a new Speaker
Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for October 12, 2023:
Democrats sidelined again by GOP leadership drama.
Both parties call on Biden to freeze Iranian money.
Santos faces new demands that he resign.
SPEAKER. For the second time this year, Congressional Republicans are in leadership limbo, unable to select a Speaker of the House. While the GOP voted 113-99 to nominate Majority Leader Steve Scalise, a full House vote for Speaker was delayed last night because a number of Republicans insisted they would still support Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), denying Scalise a majority on the floor. “The House GOP Conference is broken,” said Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-PA).
GOP VOTE. As soon as the Scalise victory was announced, a handful of Republicans stormed out of the GOP closed door meeting and immediately declared their opposition. "I'm voting for Jim Jordan on the floor," Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) said repeatedly as she darted into an elevator. "I'm still backing Jim Jordan," said Rep. Max Miller (R-OH). "I'm not going to change my vote now or anytime soon on the House floor."
GRIDLOCK. Outside the Ways and Means Committee room - in the historic hallway known as ‘Gucci Gulch’ - it quickly became obvious that Scalise was in trouble, as more Jordan supporters refused to get on board. "The country cannot afford the status quo," said Rep. Bob Good (R-VA). "It's not over yet," Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) told reporters.
NUMBERS. As of last night, I counted at least a dozen House Republicans who said they would not vote for Scalise - which would more than doom his bid to win a full House majority. And there are probably another 6-12 GOP lawmakers who might oppose Scalise as well. He can only afford to lose four votes.
REPLAY. In other words, we are basically watching the same thing that happened with Kevin McCarthy back in January, where the party nominee for Speaker is short on votes. Will Scalise finally wear down his opponents and win like McCarthy? Or will Scalise go down in flames?
NO VOTE. Don’t look for a repeat of the 15 separate ballots for Speaker on the House floor from earlier this year for McCarthy. "I just want to make sure that we don't go through what we did in January and embarrass ourselves," said Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX). "It was a clown show."
REMINDER. Let's be honest about one thing - this is not normal. This kind of majority party leadership dysfunction is something which Congress has only seen one time before, in the 1850's.
WINNING VOTES. One of the few rays of hope for Scalise came as Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) announced she would switch her support to Scalise for Speaker. But her explanation also raised questions about what the Louisiana Republican was ready to promise - raising echoes of how Kevin McCarthy won over votes in January.
LUNA. Again listing her main items of concern - defunding the Special Counsel investigating Donald Trump, having a Biden impeachment vote in the full House, and issuing a subpoena for Hunter Biden - Luna said she would vote for Scalise.
ISSUES. Those three items do tell a story. They have nothing to do with the economy, jobs, inflation, or anything related to your wallet and pocketbook. But they are a calling card for conservatives.
SNAP. Across the aisle, Democrats couldn't believe what they were watching, as the House floor remained idle for a second straight week. "Another day without a Speaker," said Rep. Andre Carson (D-IN). "Another day closer to a government shutdown." (If it's this hard to elect a Speaker - just think how hard it might be for GOP leaders to avoid a shutdown before Thanksgiving.)
MIDDLE. At the same time, Democrats also again urged Republicans to think about forming a bipartisan coalition to run the House - which obviously would be highly unusual for the modern Congress. "Let’s find the Big Middle, work across the aisle, and do the job our constituents sent us here to do," said Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH).
WHAT'S NEXT. I still don't think we are heading for some kind of hybrid bipartisan leadership arrangement in the House - then again, I didn't think Republicans were capable of screwing up a two person election.
VIBE CHECK. Let's just assume that Scalise can't win over enough votes. What do Republicans do then? Is there anyone in the House GOP conference who can pass the litmus test - whatever it may be for whatever group of GOP lawmakers - and gain a majority on the House floor? (I don’t think it will be Jordan.)
TODAY. The House convenes today at 12 noon, but there is no Speaker vote scheduled at this point. Maybe things will be different today. But the way it felt when I left last night - I wouldn’t bet on that.
TRUMP. The endorsement of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) by Donald Trump did not make the difference in this race for Speaker. I think part of that can be explained away by who Jordan was running against - Steve Scalise was the incumbent Majority Leader, and has a distinct political organization in the House, which certainly could not be matched by Jordan or Trump.
OTOH. The defeat does show there are in fact some limits on Trump's influence inside the GOP (which might come as a news flash to some Republicans). Scalise certainly has been on board with Trump as President and as the GOP nominee - and has never repudiated Trump's false claims of election fraud.
NEHLS. When asked about the Trump/Jordan loss, one Trump supporter got fired up fast. "I would probably say to those in the Republican conference that had problems with Donald Trump, get over yourself, because Donald Trump's the leader of our party, make no mistake," said Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX).
HISTORY. Normally, what happens in a Congressional leadership race is the party takes the vote, and then rallies behind the winner - no matter the margin of victory. But evidently, these are not normal times for Republicans.
DEMS. In 1976, Democrats elected Rep. Jim Wright (D-TX) as their Majority Leader by just one vote, as Wright defeated Rep. Phil Burton (D-CA). The vote was 147-146. (Yes, Democrats had almost 300 seats in the House back then.)
GOP. In 1993, Republicans elected Newt Gingrich (R-GA) as their Minority Whip by just two votes, as he defeated Rep. Ed Madigan (R-IL). What's notable about Wright and Gingrich - is they both became Speaker of the House after very narrow leadership election wins.
$6 BILLION. There is growing support in Congress to block Iran from getting access to $6 billion in frozen oil revenues which was part of a recent deal to obtain the release of U.S. hostages. "The civilized world must re-impose serious consequences on the regime that aids and abets murderous evil against innocent Israelis," said Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell.
DEMS. It's not just Republicans signing on to this plan - it's also Democrats, some of whom may have a tough reelection bid in 2024, who want to get tough on Tehran, and their support for Hamas. "At a minimum, we should immediately freeze the $6 billion in Iranian assets and explore other financial tools we have at our disposal," said Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT).
ISRAEL AID. It would seem pretty logical to me that regardless of what the White House may want, this provision will get included in any aid bill which comes before the House and Senate. In other words, this would not be a smart fight for President Biden to have with both parties in Congress.
VIVA DE LA SANTOS. Rep. George Santos (R-NY) faces even more pressure to resign from Congress, as fellow Republicans from New York called for him to quit - or for the full House to vote to expel him, a day after the feds charged Santos with another ten criminal fraud counts.
EMPIRE STATE. "I’ll be introducing an expulsion resolution to rid the People’s House of fraudster, George Santos," said Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-NY). "This week, the House should settle all family business, including expelling George Santos from the House of Representatives," added Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY).
DEFENSE. In a written statement, Santos said it would be unfair for the House to expel him right now. "An expulsion of myself as a member of Congress before being found guilty from a criminal investigation will set a dangerous precedent," Santos said.
HALLWAYS. Capitol Hill is not a happy place right now for Santos, who was chased down the halls again by reporters on Wednesday. I don’t expect him to leave until he either pleads guilty or is convicted in a trial. Santos will be arraigned on the latest charges on October 27.
SPEAKER VOTE. Santos last night said that since he has never heard from Scalise, then no matter what happens, Santos will not be voting for Scalise for Speaker of the House.
JUNK FEES. While the world headlines are still focused on the violence in Israel and the Gaza Strip, President Biden did not abandon his domestic policy plans this week - as his administration announced new actions to prohibit 'junk fees,' hidden fees that often hit consumers and make hotel rooms or concert tickets a lot more expensive than advertised.
BIDEN. "Folks are tired of being taken advantage of, paying for hidden charges that companies sneak onto your bill," President Biden said. "Today, we're taking another step to keep that money in the pockets of American families."
FTC. The Federal Trade Commission this week rolled out a new rule which will force businesses to detail fees up front - not after you have already decided to buy a ticket to the big game, or a concert. "Businesses would have to include all mandatory fees when telling consumers a price," the FTC announced.
BOUNCED. Biden officials had already put pressure on the banking industry to reduce fees for items like bounced checks - the feds claim consumers have now saved about $2 billion in the last two years because of that effort.
CONGRESS. While Republicans mocked the President for even talking about junk fees this week, Democrats hailed the move as a boon for consumers. "Junk fees deceive consumers and raise prices," said Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), who joined other Congressional Democrats at the White House.
ECONOMY. The President will continue his domestic focus today, as he meets with CEO's at the White House to talk about the economy (It's a reminder that even in times of world crisis, a President - no matter the party - should always keep hammering away on domestic policy themes.)
RAP SHEET. Two church pastors - a father and son from Florida - will be sentenced today after being found guilty back in July for illegally entering the Capitol on Jan. 6. Pastor Jim Cusick and his son Casey were ratted out by an anonymous letter to the FBI. Their attorneys tried to argue there is no law making the Capitol a restricted area.
VOLUNTEER. A Tennessee man has been found guilty of five felony charges related to his actions on Jan. 6. Ronald McAbee, a former Sheriff's deputy, had earlier pleaded guilty to a single charge of assaulting a police officer outside the Capitol. He will be sentenced at the end of February.
MUSE OF HISTORY. October 12, 1937. On this date, President Roosevelt used his 'fireside chat' to announce that he was calling a special session of Congress to convene in mid-November. FDR's goal was to have the feds set a minimum wage for labor, find better ways to help farmers, and continue building public works projects. He said Americans would support his goals. "They want the financial budget balanced. But they want the human budget balanced as well," Roosevelt said.
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House could vote on a new Speaker.
The Senate next has votes on October 16.
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With the media now almost completely focused on the Israel Hamas war, this newsletter is even more invaluable. There were so many head scratching quotes from House GOPers in this edition but this one won out for me in the post-Scalese vote: "I would probably say to those in the Republican conference that had problems with Donald Trump, get over yourself, because Donald Trump's the leader of our party, make no mistake," said Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX).
Then get ready to once again lose the WH and quite possibly the House majority next year, Rep. Nehls. In what galactic dimension are these folks residing where 45 magically expands his voting base beyond his cult at this point? Especially after millions of his voters in red states are now dead because they bought into his COVID lies?
"Those three items do tell a story. They have nothing to do with the economy, jobs, inflation, or anything related to your wallet and pocketbook." - it's hard to be concerned about subjects you have no interest in.