Democrats look for answers after election defeat
GOP favored, but House majority still in limbo
Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for November 8, 2024:
GOP claims Senate seat from Pennsylvania.
Republicans grumble about slow tally from out West.
Election reforms get torpedoed by voters.
BLAME GAME. The anger and despair of Democrats in the aftermath of their loss to Donald Trump this week is bubbling over on Capitol Hill, as lawmakers try to figure out what went wrong in this year's campaign. "Trump won the election," said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), "but more than 67 million people voted for Democrats and they don’t expect us to roll over and play dead."
ANSWERS. Like anything in politics, if you ask over 300 Democrats what the right message was in 2024 - you might get over 300 different answers. Some Democrats think the answer is they need to move more to the left - others believe the answer is to get more to the middle.
MIDDLE. "Democrats need to focus more on issues Americans care about," said Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY), a moderate from Long Island, who has long complained about how President Biden handled immigration. "Many Americans are simply afraid of ‘the Left’ more than they are afraid of what President Trump will do.”
TRANSGENDER. Suozzi and others also brought up GOP attacks over transgender athletes. "I have two little girls," said Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA). "I don't want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete. But as a Democrat, I'm supposed to be afraid to say that.”
REBUKE. It didn't take long for Moulton to hear about that. "Our community is deeply hurt by these remarks which reinforce harmful stereotypes and undermine the dignity of transgender athletes," said the group Mass Equality.
OVERSIGHT. Some Democrats said the answer was to simply keep Donald Trump on his toes once he returns to the White House. "Trump is a felon, a liar and a cheat," said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), who urged Democrats to go into 'watchdog mode.' "It’s a safe bet that epic corruption will stain the Trump years."
OVERREACH. Others simply cautioned that Trump and his allies will probably overreach on the economy and illegal immigration. "We should be clear that much of the Republican agenda is unpopular," said Rep. Dwight Evans (D-PA).
AUTOPSY. I get the hand wringing, but honestly, I'm not sure what else Kamala Harris could have done to defeat Trump. She ran a decent campaign for suddenly being thrust into the top slot on the ticket when Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid. But baked into the election year cake were big headwinds for Democrats on the economy and immigration.
BORDER. While Joe Biden deserves good grades on his legislative accomplishments as President, his handling of the border and illegal immigration in general was a disaster for his party. I’m still not quite sure what they thought they were doing as the number of border crossings skyrocketed.
LATINO VOTE. It simply looks like the Biden Administration thought going easy on the border would win them strong support from Hispanic voters. But Democrats were badly mistaken, as Latino voters surged to Trump.
STAYED HOME. There were two groups of voters who stuck with Harris and resisted Trump: Blacks and Jewish voters. Despite Trump’s effort to peel away Jewish voters, 79 percent voted for Harris according to exit polls.
ECONOMY. Inflation, high food prices, and high gas prices clearly angered a lot of voters. Will those prices be any different in a year or two? Trump has talked about lowering prices, but certainly hasn’t provided any policy framework for how that’s going to happen.
ELECTIONS. Republicans on Thursday celebrated maybe their biggest win of the 2024 elections in Congress, as GOP candidate Dave McCormick claimed victory over Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA). The win in Pennsylvania was the only swing state where Donald Trump’s coattails helped defeat a Democratic Senator, giving the GOP at least 53 seats in the next Senate.
SCHMICK. While Casey was waiting for more votes to be counted, Republicans - and major news organizations - said the winner was apparent. "Any way you slice it, Dave McCormick will be the next United States Senator from Pennsylvania," said his campaign spokeswoman Elizabeth Gregory.
AT THE BAT. Casey wasn’t giving up, as state elections officials said yesterday that there are ‘at least’ 100,000 ballots left to be counted. “This race is within half a point,” Casey’s campaign countered. He trails by 28,000 votes.
SENATE. Casey is the third Senate Democrat to be defeated in this election, along with Sen. Jon Tester of Montana and Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Republicans also picked up the seat in West Virginia of retiring Sen. Joe Manchin to give the GOP a net gain of four seats.
DEMS. But it could have been so much worse for Democrats. Even though Donald Trump won every swing state in the race for President, it was not a wipeout down the ballot. Democrats won Senate races in Michigan and Wisconsin, and lead in Nevada and Arizona as well.
HOUSE. Over in the House, neither party has yet won a majority of seats in the next Congress, as we wait for final vote tallies from a number of close races. As of last night, about 25 races have not yet been called. 218 seats is a majority.
Republicans have won 211 seats and lead in 11 others = 222 seats.
Democrats have 199 wins and lead in 14 others = 213 seats.
25 races have not been called.
CALIFORNIA. 11 of the 25 uncalled races are from California, which is normal - as that state counts votes for several weeks after Election Day, plowing through millions of mail-in ballots. It’s here that Democrats have a longshot chance to get very close to the majority in the House.
NUMBERS. Crazy as it may sound, Democrats could still win four extra seats in California, and edge their way maybe to a majority of 218 seats in the House. It’s unlikely, but it’s still possible. I think getting as high as 215 or 216 can’t be ruled out for Democrats - it just depends how ‘blue’ the mail-in ballots are.
ARIZONA. Democrats last night also went ahead in AZ06, as Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) trails by 211 votes. Winning this seat is a longshot - but it remains a possibility for Democrats.
CASUALTY LIST. So far, the 2024 election has produced little change for incumbents on the ballot. Three House Republicans lost in New York. Two House Democrats lost in Pennsylvania. That’s all so far.
VOTE TALLY. I want to make this very clear. The extended vote counting that you are seeing for the House and Senate is TOTALLY NORMAL. Why is that? It’s mainly because of the election processes used by mail-in ballot states, as it takes time to make sure the ballots have been properly signed and submitted.
BALLOTS. The states with the most ballots still to be counted in the race for Congress are all out West: Washington State, Oregon, California, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, and Arizona. That has brought grumbling from Republicans.
BEEHIVE. "Utah should revisit the wisdom and practicality of universal mail-in voting," said Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) about his home state. "Waiting this long to count votes sows distrust and undermines the perceived legitimacy of the election, especially if it’s a close one."
NOT RIGGED. You may have noticed - after months of claiming that Democrats were cheating - that Donald Trump hasn't said a word about vote fraud since he won on Tuesday. But his supporters in Arizona and Nevada have been making evidence-free claims about fraud. And it will certainly grow if California suddenly becomes a problem for the GOP.
ELECTION TRUTHERS. One thing we're seeing in the aftermath of this week's election is that Democrats are trying to very publicly make clear that they are accepting their defeat at the polls - unlike how many Republicans and Donald Trump acted after the 2020 election.
HOUSE. "I am proud that the Democratic Party does not believe in election denial," said their House leader Hakeem Jeffries. "Our Democracy is precious and it involves elevating public trust in our system of free and fair elections, not undermining it."
WHITE HOUSE. President Biden emphasized that again on Thursday at the White House, as he expressed his support for an orderly transition. "I've said many times, you can't love your country only when you win," Biden said. "On January 20, we'll have a peaceful transfer of power."
WELCOME. Remember, Trump did all he could to undermine Biden after the 2020 election. Trump refused to invite Biden to the White House, and stood in the way of almost all transition efforts. Democrats could easily have decided to do the same thing - but that would have been a mistake.
NORMS. It is very important that we not erase the norms and processes of this country when it comes to our elections. The claims of vote fraud - without any evidence to back it up - are terribly dangerous. Trump’s refusal to help with the 2020 transition was all about being a sore loser. If Democrats responded in kind, it would have set a dangerous precedent.
CHIEF. President-Elect Donald Trump made his first staff choice for his administration, picking his campaign manager, Susie Wiles, as White House Chief of Staff. She will be the first woman to ever hold that post. "Susie will continue to work tirelessly to Make America Great Again," Trump said in a written statement.
POSTS. I've been surprised by stories which float the names of certain House Republicans for posts in the Trump Administration. It's not because they wouldn't be qualified - but it's because of the very slim majority the GOP is going to have in the House.
VACANCY. If someone like Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) were to be tapped for United Nations Ambassador, it would take months to hold a special election - making your majority even smaller. (That's much different than in the Senate, where a Governor can instantly appoint someone to fill a vacancy.)
PICKS. Keep that House majority in mind if you read that a member of the House might be picked for a Trump job.
GOLDEN STATE. In one way, it might be the first move for 2028. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on Thursday called an emergency special session of his state's legislature - asking lawmakers to protect the state from 'any unlawful actions by the incoming Trump Administration.'
GAVIN. "Whether it be our fundamental civil rights, reproductive freedom, or climate action -- we refuse to turn back the clock and allow our values and laws to be attacked," Newsom said.
GOP. Newsom's critics ridiculed his move. "The last person who represents California values is Gavin Newsom," said Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-CA). "If he's planning another delusional presidential run with stunts like this, the response on both sides of the aisle will be eye-rolling."
RESISTANCE 2.0. Also chiming in from the West Coast was outgoing Washington State Gov. Jay Inslee. "Washington has gone toe-to-toe with Trump before and we’re ready to do it again," Inslee said Thursday. "Your rights are protected here. We will continue to lead on reproductive rights, climate action, immigrant rights, and more."
VOTING REFORMS. The movement in favor of 'ranked choice voting' and nonpartisan primaries hit a big speed bump this week in most of the country. Voters in Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, and South Dakota all defeated plans for those election process reforms.
CHANGE. Meanwhile, Alaska voters passed a ballot question to repeal both the state's 'Top Four' jungle primary and ranked choice system. The only place where ranked choice voting succeeded was - in the District of Columbia.
OPPOSITION. The Colorado Polling Institute reported Thursday that 70 percent of GOP voters opposed a ballot question in that state on ranked choice voting. 58 percent of voters over 45 also went against it.
MAINE. While Alaska is getting rid of ranked choice voting after this year, it's still being used in Maine - and it will be used next week to settle the reelection bid of Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME). Golden evidently fell just short of a majority, as he leads by about 1400 votes.
RAP SHEET. An Ohio man has been sentenced to 14 months in prison for his actions on Jan. 6. Adrian Schmidt was also fined $2,000. He was part of a group of rioters who pushed through police barricades outside the Capitol, at point throwing an object at officers, and pushing against them with his body. He received his sentence on Election Day.
MUSE OF HISTORY. November 8, 1864. In the midst of the Civil War, Union states reelected Abraham Lincoln as President, as he won an easy victory over former Gen. George McClellan, whom Lincoln had removed from command two years earlier. McClellan won three states: Kentucky, Delaware and New Jersey. Two southern states by Union troops voted - Louisiana and Tennessee - but their electoral votes were ultimately not accepted.
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House next has votes on Tuesday.
The Senate comes back for votes on Tuesday.
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Thanks so much for your continued excellent work. Right now yours is pretty much the only voice I can stand.
In basically what 90 days, Kamala was able to do something Biden would have never done. And that is give Trump a run for his money. Both parties need to understand and still do not apparently we moderates are here in th middle watching both sides talk about and focus on things that do not matter to the majority of the population. Are they issues that matter yes they do but not in the middle. Trump hammered on and on about the major concerns. Immigration because yes as a country we need to put into place sensible and realistic immigration policies! The dreamers need a path to citizenship and the demonizing of folks that don't look like you(European Americans) freaking has to stop. The economy good Lord how many stump speeches did he give about how great pricing was when he was president and crappy it is now. The Dems did not hammer about how many jobs had been created or how inflation has gone down. If the Democrats would have shown how yes prices may be high but they are lower than they were in Trump's presidency that may have helped. Trumps Bidenomics commerical were extremely effective for my trump loving family members they brought them up all the time.
Trump ran on and the irony is not lost on me is God and Country. He picked up on the disenfranchised christians who get butt hurt because people do not see Jesus as the reason for the season and ran with it like a kid shoplifting a piece of bubblegum. He empowered them in a way Regan could not and they came in droves. Trump turned the teaparty movement into a monster evangelical movement. And you know who some the evangelicals are immigrants.
Sadly my final point will really make some folks mad but heard it a lot mostly white males but some white females too.. I did not vote for a black man and I certainly will not vote for a black woman. Make no mistake as enlightened as we think we are as a country we are not.