Democrats hopeful as 2024 campaign closes

Is there a November surprise from Iowa?

Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for November 4, 2024:

• Trump again overwhelms the news media.

• The gender gap continues to grow.

• “Have you ever seen a Commie drink a glass of water?”

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FINISH LINE. The 2024 election campaign comes to a close today with Democrats feeling like they have momentum in the race for President and in the fight for control of the U.S. House. The battle for the Senate still looks like it presents a narrow advantage for the GOP - as the voters will (hopefully) deliver a clear and final verdict this week.

• CONGRESS. It might seem odd - but the path to the House majority may depend on what happens in Iowa, where Democrats believe they can flip two GOP seats in the House. That effort took on new meaning after the release of a major Iowa poll over the weekend, which showed Democrats leading both Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) and Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA).

• WHITE HOUSE. The much bigger headline was that the Iowa poll also showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points in Iowa. To many, the idea that Iowa was surging that far to the Democratic side seemed absolutely ludicrous. And yet, there it was in print, in the Des Moines Register.

POLL. Let’s say this right away - I think most of us would agree that this poll seems hard to believe. So, for the sake of argument, instead of a 3-point lead for Harris - let’s just say that Trump is ahead by 3 points in Iowa. That still represents a swing to the Democrats in what’s considered a solid GOP state. What could have caused that in Iowa?

• ABORTION. Democrats immediately said the answer was a subject that has become political kryptonite for Republicans - abortion. "Republicans in Iowa enacted a draconian six-week abortion ban," said House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries on Sunday. "Are Iowa voters about to deliver a November surprise?"

• HEARTBEAT. If abortion is the answer in Iowa, no one should be surprised. A September poll by Selzer showed 69 percent of women opposed to Iowa’s new 6-week abortion ban. This latest Iowa poll takes it a step further, showing women breaking dramatically in favor of Harris.

• 6 WEEK BAN. On the ground in Iowa, abortion has definitely been a flash point between Democrat Christina Bohannon and Rep. Miller-Meeks (R-IA). "Anti-choice with no exceptions," Bohannon said last week of Miller-Meeks, highlighting how Republicans backed the state's 6-week abortion ban.

• FOURTH. In southwest Iowa, it's been the same strategy, as Democrat Lannon Baccam has also tried to tie Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA) to the state's 6-week abortion law. Nunn has been joined in recent days on the trail by Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA), who has expressed confidence in Nunn's bid for a second term. "I feel really good about it; this guy's working really hard."

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CORNHUSKER. Even if the Iowa poll is overstating the strength of Kamala Harris, just across the Missouri River in Nebraska, Democrats are already writing the political obituary of Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE). Bacon holds an Omaha-based district which has been consistently polling in favor of Harris - sometimes by double digits - echoing the results seen by Selzer over in Iowa.

• MESSAGE. What's going on? We are seeing women moving sharply in favor of Harris. We are also seeing older women breaking for Harris. The Iowa poll has Harris winning women 56-36 percent over Trump. The explanation seems pretty simple. "One reason we’re seeing a huge gender-gap in the polling is because of Roe v. Wade," said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA).

• WHITE HOUSE. Harris hammered that message home on Sunday. "Women must have the freedom to make decisions about their bodies and their futures — and no elected official should stand in their way," Harris told reporters during a full day of campaign stops in Michigan.

• LONE STAR. Down in Texas, there is an abortion law that's much like the one in Iowa, and that has brought stories of two young women who died - because doctors were reluctant to treat their pregnancy complications. "Ted Cruz’s abortion ban prevented their doctors from providing the life-saving care they needed," said Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX), who is running for Senate against Cruz.

SUPREME COURT. I often think about the line written by Justice Samuel Alito, who led the court's decision overturning Roe v. Wade. "Women are not without electoral or political power," Alito wrote. "It is noteworthy that the percentage of women who register to vote and cast ballots is consistently higher than the percentage of men who do so." That may be very true this week.

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BALLOT BOX. We have seen multiple times how abortion ballot questions have been approved in various states - even red states - since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June of 2022. But the 2024 election is really the first test where women voters are being asked to act on that issue in a national election.

• MAILBAG. Tell me what you think about abortion as an issue in this campaign. Is it something driving your vote? Have you heard from your daughters or wives?

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SONNY ELIOT. One of the key states in both the race for President and the battle for Congress is Michigan. One pollster there has a late poll which shows Democrats gaining over the last week. What it also shows is the stark gender divide overtaking our political system.

• GENDER GAP. Mitchell Research found Trump with a 14-point edge among men, 55-41 percent. The same poll found a 15-point edge among women for Harris, 56-41 percent.

• SAMPLING. There was one very interesting note from Mitchell about what's happening in early voting in Michigan. "It seems clear now that we are under sampling women, African Americans, and the City of Detroit based on absentee ballot returns and early voting," the poll notes. In other words, the race is developing differently than their initial assumptions.

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NO DRAMA. Just like how the race for President is concentrated in only seven swing states, the race for control of Congress doesn't involve most members of the House or Senate. For example, the University of Virginia's Center for Politics rated 190 House seats as 'Safe Republican,' and another 175 as 'Safe Democratic.' That's 84 percent of the House.

• GOLDEN STATE. We all know the Democrats will win California in the race for the White House. But how Democrats do in California could well determine if they take back the House.

• SCHIFTY. "In some presidential elections, California can feel like an afterthought," said Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA). "Not this time. Californians will decide which party controls the House of Representatives."

• SWING SEATS. There are four GOP lawmakers who hold seats in a district which voted for Joe Biden in 2020: Rep. David Valadao (R-CA), Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA), Rep. Young Kim (R-CA), and Rep. Michelle Steele (R-CA). And Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) could also be in trouble in his district.

GROUND GAME. Tomorrow's election will be a major test of the importance of organization. Democrats clearly have the advantage in terms of a get out the vote operation in most states. "The enthusiasm on the ground is enormous," ex-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told CNN in an interview.

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TRUMPED. It was a busy weekend on the campaign trail for Donald Trump. It was also a typical weekend for Trump, as he made so many unusual statements that the press was unable to deal with the volume and the details.

• 2020. As usual, Trump was talking about the 2020 election, which he still claims - despite no evidence - that it was 'rigged and stolen.' On Sunday, he added a new twist about his departure from the White House. "I shouldn't have left," Trump told a rally in Pennsylvania.

• FAKE NEWS. At one point, Trump was talking about the protective glass which now encloses him at rallies, after an assassination attempt back in July. "To get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news," Trump said, referring to the stand of reporters in front of him. "I don’t mind that so much.”

• REDACTED. On Saturday, Trump was complaining at a different rally about problems with his microphone. He then made a series of gestures - involving his hand, his mouth, and the microphone - which one could reasonably interpret were of a sexual nature. You didn't see that on the news? No, you probably didn't - because news organizations clearly shied away from it.

• WHAT STATE. On Sunday at a rally in North Carolina, Trump called out to the audience for a prime GOP Senate candidate. "Dave McCormick. Dave, where are you, Dave?" Trump said. There was only one problem. McCormick is running in Pennsylvania. And Trump was not in Pennsylvania.

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EASTER EGGS. It has been interesting to watch how the major news media are now slipping little hints into their stories about Trump. The AP wrote Sunday that Trump's campaign trail discipline is 'increasingly collapsing.' The New York Times said Trump 'appeared particularly tired...as he delivered remarks marked by grievances and the occasional vulgarity.'

• LAST DAY. Kamala Harris will spend the final day of the 2024 campaign in Pennsylvania, wrapping up with a rally in Philadelphia. Donald Trump will finish with rallies in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and a final gathering in Michigan.

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GENERAL RIPPER. No, you weren't having a dream about the movie, Dr. Strangelove this weekend. Trump ally Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - who has been promised a major health role in a Trump Administration - said a Trump victory would lead to an immediate push for the end of the fluoridation of public water supplies, which is used to prevent tooth decay.

• RFK JR. “On January 20, the Trump White House will advise all U.S. water systems to remove fluoride from public water," Kennedy tweeted, saying that Trump wants to 'Make America Healthy Again.'

• WATER. Health experts were beside themselves. "I wrote an actual book on progress in public health and I can assure you we want to keep vaccines and fluoridation," said Caitlin Rivers, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University. "The Before Times were not good."

• MANDRAKE. Of course, this was my first thought. "Do you realize that fluoridation is the most monstrously conceived and dangerous Communist plot we have ever had to face?" Gen. Jack Ripper said in Dr. Strangelove. “Have you ever seen a Commie drink a glass of water?”

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RAP SHEET. A father and son from New Jersey have been arrested on charges of assaulting police at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. The father, 72-year-old Richard Andrews threw a chair through a broken window of the Capitol, hitting an officer inside, and later shoved another officer outside. His son Keith (49) also scrapped with police in the building.

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MUSE OF HISTORY.  November 4, 1884.  On this date, Democrats won their first race for the White House since the Civil War, as Grover Cleveland defeated James Blaine.  New York was the key state for Cleveland, who won the Empire State by just over 1,000 votes.  Cleveland is the only President who won a race for the White House, lost a race for reelection, and then won another term in office.  (Donald Trump would be the second.)

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LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:

The House next has votes on November 12.

The Senate comes back for votes on November 12.

Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree.

Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com

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