Democrats hold their breath on gas prices
After voting against aid, Florida Republicans now want help ASAP
Also in today’s edition of “Regular Order” for October 7, 2022:
Democrats talk retaliation against OPEC.
Biden to issue pardons for simple marijuana possession.
What a horrible week for Herschel Walker.
OPEC. Oil prices and gas prices seemed to hold in place on Thursday, a day after the OPEC oil cartel said it would reduce oil production by two million barrels of oil per day. Gas prices in the Washington, D.C. area did not jump - I bought some yesterday for $3.37 - one of the lowest prices we have seen in our area in months.
GAS PRICES. You don’t need to be a political expert to understand what a big jump in gas prices would mean for Democrats at the polls in November. It would be more than an October surprise. It could ensure a GOP victory in both the House and Senate.
GOP. Republicans continue to blame President Biden for holding back on new oil and gas exploration. "Biden needs to wave the white flag on his disastrous War on American Energy," said former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who repeated her famous 2008 GOP convention call of 'Drill, baby, drill' on Thursday.
REFINERIES. But even if the U.S. could turn on a magic oil spigot, there is almost no extra capacity to refine more oil. U.S. refineries are running at over 95 percent - as refining capacity in the U.S. has dropped by 1.1 million barrels of oil per day since the Coronavirus outbreak.
PRODUCTION. As I mentioned yesterday, oil production is now at the highest point since the bottom fell out of the oil market in March of 2020. But with available refinery capacity down worldwide - prices are way up.
NOPEC. Democrats continue to talk about retaliation for the OPEC move. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer said Thursday evening that one option to punish Saudi Arabia is the bipartisan 'NOPEC' bill, which would allow Americans to sue OPEC in U.S. courts for antitrust violations involving oil markets.
SCHUMER. "What Saudi Arabia did to help Putin continue to wage his despicable, vicious war against Ukraine will long be remembered by Americans," Schumer said in a written statement on Thursday evening.
RETALIATION. Some Mideast oil experts cautioned that such a move could backfire. "If Biden wants a price war, he may have one on his hands if he passes this bill," said Gregory Brew.
IMPORTS. Brew also had an interesting note about U.S. oil imports from OPEC. The U.S. brought in almost 6 million barrels per day in 2010. That's now less than 1 million barrels per day. It’s the lowest since the late 1960's.
REEFER MADNESS. Many Democrats in Congress - joined by some Republicans - hailed President Biden's decision on Thursday to pardon thousands of people convicted of simple marijuana possession under federal laws. The move does not cover state or local convictions - only federal - but does erase convictions in Washington, D.C.
REACTION. For Democrats, the only thing better would be for Congress to decriminalize marijuana at the federal level. "This is a vital step forward for ending the failed war on drugs," said Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR).
CRITICS. Some conservatives like Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) denounced the move. "Joe Biden is giving blanket pardons to drug offenders," said Cotton, who called it a 'desperate attempt to distract from failed leadership.'
GOP. But other Republicans welcomed the news, and urged further action. "Federal cannabis prohibition is no longer the will of the American people," said Rep. Dave Joyce (R-OH).
SCHEDULE. Maybe more importantly, the President asked his administration to review whether marijuana should continue to be classified as what's called a 'Schedule 1 substance.' Biden noted that marijuana is on the same level as much stronger drugs like heroin and LSD. "It makes no sense," he said.
SENATE. It looks like Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) is on the verge of leaving Congress and becoming the Head Florida Gator. "The University of Florida is the most interesting university in America right now,” Sasse said in a statement, as he was named the top candidate for school president.
CORNHUSKER. Nebraska's laws allow the GOP Governor to replace Sasse, which means there will be no change in the 50-50 status of the Senate. Sasse’s selection is not yet final - so he would likely leave later this year.
REACTION. I laughed at my initial thoughts, because it sort of seems like a conspiracy theory. Hear me out. Donald Trump hates Ben Sasse. Ron DeSantis wants Trump out of the way for 2024. DeSantis has already been meddling at the University of Florida. Was this a way to send Trump a message?
OBSERVATION. On Capitol Hill, Sasse just seemed like someone who didn't really want to be in the Senate. He didn't seem to enjoy talking to reporters. He would sometimes show up to vote in a sweaty t-shirt and gym shorts. Maybe being a college administrator is a better fit for him than fighting Trump.
GEORGIA SENATE. What a terrible week this has been for Herschel Walker, the Republican candidate for Senate in Georgia. The stories about Walker's personal life just keep coming - as do the evolving denials and admissions from Walker himself. Top Georgia Republicans didn't reject him - but they didn't really embrace him either.
GEORGIA POLLS. Do I believe the poll this week which showed Walker behind Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) by 12 points? Absolutely not. This race is probably still fairly close, but the polls in Georgia have consistently shown Walker lagging behind the support for Gov. Brian Kemp (R).
SPLIT TICKET. Even before this episode, I thought Walker could be in trouble because of suburban Republicans split ticket voting for Kemp and Warnock - or just as damaging - voting for Kemp and skipping the Senate race entirely. And this has not been a good week for any outreach to independent voters.
RUNOFF. That being said, Georgia has the weird general election runoff requirement, and I would still bet right now that Warnock and Walker will face off in December - even with this week's troubles for the former University of Georgia football star.
HURRICANE IAN. A group of U.S. House Republicans from Florida - who last week all voted against $18.9 billion in disaster relief for FEMA - now want Congress to quickly approve a disaster relief bill to aid Florida victims of Hurricane Ian. "It has left many communities without basic needs, such as food, water, power, and shelter."
REQUEST. In a letter, Florida Republicans asked the leaders of the House Appropriations Committee 'to urgently work with the Florida delegation' on Ian relief. But there was a catch. You can read their letter at this link.
JUST FLORIDA. "We ask that you exclusively focus on recent hurricane disasters in this package, and free from any language that is not directly related to the hurricane relief and recovery efforts," the GOP group wrote.
SANDY. What's ironic is that ten years ago, some Florida Republicans voted against Hurricane Sandy relief - because it helped repair federal facilities damaged by Hurricane Sandy. But Republicans said that was pork, and 67 of them - including now Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) - voted ‘No.’
ACTION. At this point, action on more disaster aid is not likely until after the elections. And it's not clear how much money Florida lawmakers will ask for.
BUDGET DEFICIT. Speaking of spending, when I started working on Capitol Hill in 1980, Republicans were livid over the yearly budget deficit under Jimmy Carter, which was edging toward $70 billion. While Carter never balanced the budget, he did end up with a better fiscal record than any GOP President elected after him.
CASEY STENGEL. Maybe you remember the line of the famous baseball player Casey Stengel - 'Can't anybody here play this game?' It applies to Congress, where both parties have been a complete failure when it comes to the budget - as the national debt went over $31 trillion this week. More in my weekly column for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
REGULAR ORDER. If today is your one day a week of ‘Regular Order,’ you missed a lot of news and insight from Capitol Hill in recent days. Why not upgrade to a paid subscription - or give the gift of straight news to one of your friends or relatives.
LEAKS. There were two notable leaks in Washington on Thursday. First, a series of major news organizations reported that President Biden's son - Hunter Biden - could be facing federal tax evasion charges, plus a charge for making a false statement when purchasing a firearm.
GOP. "This is just the tip of the iceberg," Republicans on the House Oversight Committee eagerly tweeted. It wasn't clear where the leak originated, but Hunter Biden's lawyers pointed at the FBI.
TRUMP LEGAL. The other leak of note on Thursday night was about the document tussle involving former President Donald Trump. The New York Times reported that Justice Department officials believe Trump still has more government documents.
OF NOTE. Reading between the lines, the story noted that DOJ's Jay Bratt had told Trump's lawyers that in recent weeks. Bratt heads the counterintelligence department - which could indicate that the feds believe Trump is still holding other classified materials.
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. Most people probably don't realize that Congress has direct oversight of the Federal City - as theoretically lawmakers could step in and override any law approved by the D.C. City Council. And there seems to be one possible plan which would be an easy GOP election year target.
VOTING. This week the D.C. City Council gave initial approval to a bill which would open up local elections to any resident who is not a citizen of the United States. That would include foreign nationals living in D.C., along with immigrants - whether they have a legal or illegal status.
BIG APPLE. New York City already tried that - but a judge struck down the effort to let permanent legal residents and others with green cards cast ballots in local elections. The idea of D.C. doing that is a just a 30-second attack ad - related to illegal immigration - waiting to happen.
MUSE OF HISTORY. October 7, 1814. On this date, a joint committee reported that former President Thomas Jefferson was offering to sell his personal library to the House and Senate - as a way to restore the Library of Congress, which had been burned by the British a few weeks earlier. In 1815, lawmakers approved a plan to buy Jefferson's books for $23,950. Unfortunately, a fire at the Capitol in 1851 would destroy nearly two-thirds of what Congress bought from the former President.
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House next has votes on November 14.
The Senate next has votes on November 14.
President Biden’s daily schedule link.
Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree. Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com
"Georgia has the weird general election runoff requirement" - it's not weird. It's absolutely on purpose so no other political parties will have a chance getting anyone elected ever in an election there.
Reefer Madness….a classic!