Congress returns for pre-election blitz
Lawmakers face September 30 shutdown deadline
Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for September 9, 2024:
Trump and Harris get ready for debate night.
GOP to release new report on Afghan withdrawal.
Tennessee Republican asks the FBI to return his phone.
THIS WEEK. Congress is back for a pre-election session. Trump and Harris meet in a Tuesday night debate.
CONGRESS. School is back on Capitol Hill! After a 6-week summer break for the House and five weeks off for the Senate, lawmakers in Congress return to work today for a final pre-election session. There is absolutely no expectation that any major legislation will get approved - but there should be plenty of politics and fireworks over the next three weeks.
FUNDING. Once again this year, lawmakers aren’t anywhere close to finishing the 12 government funding bills by the end of the fiscal year on September 30 - so, the main job is to approve a temporary funding plan in order to avoid a government shutdown.
STOPGAP. Instead of just passing a temporary funding plan, the GOP will try to combine that with a bill authorizing new voter registration checks - all designed to stop illegal immigrants from voting (which is already against the law).
GOP. Most Republicans are already on board with the plan. "This will be a test to see if Congress believes in preserving free and fair elections," said Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC). "It's time to be bold," said Rep. Diana Harshbarger (R-TN), "and use the power of the purse."
LIKELY OUTCOME. We all know what’s going to happen. Even if the House passes that combo bill, Senate Democrats won’t. Everyone will spend a few weeks trying to say the other is to blame for a shutdown. This movie has played at the Capitol Hill Cinema many times before.
RULES. Republicans will take the first step on the new temporary funding plan this afternoon in the House Rules Committee, which meets at 4 pm. GOP leaders still have to find out if they have the votes to pass this measure on the House floor - as there are some in the GOP who don't want to vote for a stopgap funding plan known as a 'CR.'
SHUTDOWN. Democrats wasted no time in saying this would go nowhere. "If Speaker Johnson drives House Republicans down this highly partisan path, the odds of a shutdown go way up," said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA).
BLAME GAME. "Why are House Republicans from New York and California willing to shut down the government and hurt everyday Americans?" House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said on Sunday.
SWING SEATS. It is important to remember that the idea of several weeks of battling about a possible government shutdown might not help a series of GOP lawmakers in tough seats. GOP lawmakers from Long Island and California will see a lot of reporters chasing them in the coming days.
PENTAGON. There is one part of the government which absolutely hates the idea of the 6-month temporary funding bill proposed by House Republicans - and that's the Pentagon. That's because it keeps the military on hold with the previous year's funding and priorities. Unfortunately, it's become common - no matter who is in charge.
LETTER. "There have been 48 CRs over 14 of the last 15 fiscal years lasting a total of 1,794 days, which equates to executing almost 5 out of the previous 15 years under a CR," said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a letter to key spending lawmakers. "I urge you and your colleagues to take up action immediately after the election."
IMPACTS. Most of the letter was a nine page list of negative impacts from a CR, which included a lack of money to pay for a scheduled 4.5 percent military pay increase, extra money needed for basic housing allowances for service members, and delays in new military construction projects.
TRIVIA. There are 12 government funding bills in Congress. The House has passed five of those 12. The Senate has passed none. The deadline for action is September 30, the end of the fiscal year. In the past 50 years, Congress has finished that work on time only in 1976, 1988, 1994, and 1996. I covered the last three. Most of my fellow reporters on Capitol Hill have never seen it happen.
SPEAKER. Let’s not forget something about this battle over a CR. This end-of-the-fiscal-year situation is also an internal test for House Speaker Mike Johnson, as he tries to deal with conservatives who are itching for a showdown with Democrats on spending. "Is Speaker Johnson willing to fight for it?" asked Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA).
MEMORIES. Remember that one year ago, almost the same circumstances led to the ouster of Speaker Kevin McCarthy. He tried but failed to pass a bill combining temporary funding with tougher measures for the border. McCarthy was then ousted after the House okayed a ‘clean’ funding bill.
FINISH LINE. We all know this process will probably end with the House and Senate approving a ‘clean’ temporary funding bill. I’m not saying that Johnson is going to be tossed out. But this fight could reopen some old GOP wounds. And it would be very much on brand for Republicans to be fighting with each other just before an election.
CHINA. The big legislative focus this week in the House - outside of funding for the government - is a series of GOP bills dealing with China. One plan unveiled last week would allow the feds to block efforts by Chinese individuals or companies to buy agricultural land in the United States.
CHINA. Other bills on the House schedule include restrictions on 'Confucius Institutes,' a plan to crack down on theft of U.S. intellectual property, a bill to curb the use of Chinese drones, and legislation making sure a tax break related to electric vehicle batteries doesn't apply to cars built in China.
MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE. Look for the GOP to frequently bring up the name of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on this subject. Why is that? Walz taught English there after college, and has visited China some 30 times. (Some in the GOP have darkly hinted that Walz is a Chinese agent.)
ISSUE. Republicans have tried for months to portray Democrats as soft on China, but is it a big deal for voters? It still seems like the top issues are inflation, food prices, and immigration. Every time Republicans say the ‘CCP’ - it takes me a few seconds to realize what they mean.
SENATE. What's on tap for the Senate in the next few weeks? Senators will start with a procedural vote on a Biden judicial nomination at 5:30 pm this evening, as Democrats will try to confirm as many judges as possible - just in case they lose control of the U.S. Senate in the new Congress.
DEMS. Other than the CR, it seems unlikely that the Senate will work on any substantive legislation this month. In a letter to colleagues on Sunday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer name-checked a major defense policy bill and other items - but that’s more likely in a lame duck session.
ABORTION. If I had to guess, Democrats will probably try at least once to put GOP Senators on the record about abortion or IVF. If the GOP can try to embarrass Harris, Walz, and Biden, Democrats can likely play that game, too.
VANCE. The odds are probably against Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) showing up on Capitol Hill for any of the three scheduled work weeks this month. But I would also make this observation - normally, a VP candidate would be pretty busy. As of now, Vance has no campaign events listed on the Trump schedule for this week.
OUTSIDE THE BOX. If anyone asked me for ideas, I would suggest that Vance go to Capitol Hill for meetings with House and Senate Republicans. Why? It would sure make more news than doing nothing on the campaign trail.
CAMPAIGN. Hanging over the work of Congress obviously is the race for President, and just about everything that happens over the next three weeks on Capitol Hill can have a dash of presidential politics involved. But it will be difficult for lawmakers to create a bigger story this week than Tuesday night's debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
DEBATE. "I think September 10 is incredibly consequential," said GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who remains convinced that Donald Trump should be the structural favorite to win in November. "I still think that Trump is going to overperform," McInturff said last week.
HARRIS. When you think about it, Harris probably has the most to gain - and maybe the most to lose - in Tuesday's debate. "Opinions of Donald Trump aren't going to change between now and the election," said Amy Walter, an elections expert with the Cook Political Report. "Opinions of Kamala Harris can change between now and the election."
OUTLOOK. My guess is that this will be the only debate between Trump and Harris. And I think if one of them 'wins' the debate, that could be the deciding factor in where this race is going for November. Let's wait to see what happens on Tuesday night before making any declarations.
AFGHANISTAN. On the first day back for lawmakers, Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee will release a final report on the botched U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan, with a news conference set for 4:30 pm. While we don't know all the details, we certainly know which direction the GOP is heading.
MCCAUL. "It will serve as an indictment on the administration's reckless refusal to properly prepare for the withdrawal," said panel chair Rep. Michael McCaul (R-T). "President Biden and Vice President Harris can no longer sweep their unmitigated disaster of epic proportions that they created under the rug."
BLINKEN. This won't be the only mention of Afghanistan by McCaul and the GOP. Last week, McCaul's committee subpoenaed Secretary of State Antony Blinken to testify at a public hearing on the Afghan withdrawal. That would certainly create some campaign fireworks later this month.
CHENEY. The story of how former Vice President Dick Cheney ended up publicly endorsing Kamala Harris really has nothing to do with policy - Cheney clearly doesn't agree with Democrats on most issues. But there is one subject which unites them - and that is contempt for Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss.
IRON ASS. "In our nation's 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump," Cheney said. "He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He can never be trusted with power again."
TEAM BLUE. Harris supporters welcomed the endorsement from Cheney and ex-Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) as well. "Cheney and I agree on nothing - no issues," said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) on NBC's 'Meet the Press. "I applaud the Cheneys for their courage in defending democracy."
VOTES. Do I think it will sway many voters? Probably not. But in this election, just a few votes could make a difference. If you're a Republican out there who doesn't want to vote for Trump - but are squeamish about voting for Harris - Cheney's decision could give you something to consider.
OGLES. Lawyers for Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) are asking a federal judge in Tennessee to force the Justice Department to return the GOP lawmaker's cell phone, which was seized by the feds on August 2. "I do not intend to waive any privilege that I may have under the Speech or Debate Clause," Ogles wrote.
PROBE. The feds are investigating campaign finance questions related to Ogles, a freshmen GOP lawmaker from the Nashville area. He has downplayed any legal concerns. "It has been widely reported for months that my campaign made mistakes in our initial financial filings," which Ogles labeled 'honest mistakes.'
REVIEW. In another court document, a lawyer for Ogles revealed that the feds not only have the Tennessee Republican's cell phone, but also had a search warrant for his private email. "Congressman Ogles’ cell phone and Google email account contain legislative materials that are protected by the Speech or Debate Clause," said attorney John Rowley.
CASE. If you’re looking for this case, the title is 'USA v. Search Warrant,' before federal Magistrate Judge Alistair Newbern in Tennessee. She has asked the feds to weigh in with their own legal briefs by Wednesday. The original search warrant in the case remains sealed.
GARDEN STATE. The Senate gets a new Senator today from New Jersey. George Helmy will be sworn in to replace Democrat Bob Menendez, who resigned on August 20. Menendez was convicted of a series of federal bribery and corruption charges. Helmy is not running for the seat in November.
GOVERNOR. It sounds like middle school, but Gov. Phil Murphy of New Jersey - who appointed Helmy to replace Menendez - still hasn't publicly endorsed Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ), the Democratic nominee for Senate. Murphy's wife wanted that seat, but withdrew when it became obvious that Kim was going to win.
RAP SHEET. A Massachusetts doctor who punched a cop in the Capitol Rotunda on Jan. 6 has been sentenced to nine months in prison and nine months of home confinement. Jacquelyn Starer pleaded guilty to eight different charges including felony assault of police. "I truly wish reason had prevailed over my emotions," Starer told the court last week.
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House meets at 12 noon.
The Senate convenes at 3 pm.
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Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com
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"Iron Ass" 🤣
I was particularly amused at 45's post calling Cheney a RINO. Good Lord. Some day's I just can't believe how different the GOP is from my youth.
What?! No Muse of History today?