Congress kicks the can into March
Warning lights flashing for Speaker Johnson after CR vote
Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for January 19, 2024:
Trump urges House GOP to oppose Senate border deal.
House lawmakers might have to give up some vacation.
House panel backs bill for ‘Fiscal Commission.’
STOPGAP. As Congress moved on Thursday to avoid a partial government shutdown, the final House vote was an ominous sign for Speaker Mike Johnson. While all but two Democrats backed the CR, a bare majority of House Republicans voted to fund the government into early March. It raised more uncomfortable questions about Johnson’s future.
MARCH. Lawmakers now have 6-7 weeks to finish a dozen government funding bills - with new shutdown deadlines set for March 1 and March 8. "It’s time to stop this stupid brinkmanship," said Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), as these bills should have been done by October 1 of last year.
COALITION. Thursday's vote was yet another example of the bipartisan governing coalition that’s developed in the House - to counter GOP rebels in the House Freedom Caucus. While Speaker Johnson barely got a majority of Republican votes (more on that later), Democrats strongly supported the plan.
GOP DIVIDE. Johnson’s ears were burning during the debate. "Our Speaker, Mr. Johnson, said he was the most conservative Speaker we had," said Rep. Eli Crane (R-AZ). "And yet here we are, putting this bill on the floor this afternoon without conservative policy riders.”
FUNDING. "It is Groundhog Day in the House chamber," yelled Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX). "All the time, every day, yet again, spending money we don't have." Roy had no soothing words for his leadership, either. "This is shameful."
PARTY. Senior Republicans could not believe what they were watching. "Chaos," one veteran lawmaker told me when asked about the internal party debate on the CR. Another GOP vet was furious that Roy and Crane had gone to the floor to basically attack Speaker Johnson. The disarray continues for House Republicans.
SENATE. The outcome was much different over in the Senate, which voted 77-18 in favor of the CR, defeating several GOP amendments along the way. All Democrats voted for the stopgap plan, while all 18 'No' votes came from GOP Senators.
EIGHTEEN. The Senate ‘No’ votes were: Blackburn TN, Braun IN, Britt AL, Budd NC, Cramer ND, Crapo ID, Cruz TX, Hawley MO, Hoeven ND, Johnson WI, Lee UT, Marshall KS, Paul KY, Risch ID, Schmitt MO, Scott SC, Tuberville AL, and Vance OH.
CR VOTE. As the CR vote was winding down in the House, Republicans were evenly divided at 106-106 on the temporary funding measure. Then, one last GOP lawmaker voted 'No' - tipping the majority against the short-term funding plan. The House GOP floor operation quickly swung into action to keep Speaker Mike Johnson from being embarrassed.
STOPGAP. Back in November, there were 93 Republicans who voted against Johnson’s ‘laddered’ CR approach. This time, it took some late arm-twisting to make sure the Speaker won a bare majority for the CR.
VOTE. The vote of Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI) didn't matter to the final tally. But it did matter to GOP leaders. As soon as Walberg made it 106-107 among Republicans, Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-PA) - the Chief Deputy Whip - signaled to Wallberg that he should vote 'Yes.’ See the photos at this link.
SWITCH. Wallberg changed his vote and got a pat on the back from Reschenthaler, who then fist-bumped a fellow Republican. GOP leaders got their one vote majority for the CR, not violating what was known as the Hastert Rule.
QUESTION. Maybe the larger question was one we immediately asked in the Speaker's Lobby after the vote. If the GOP has this much trouble mustering votes for a CR, what about the two Omnibus funding bills likely to come down the pike in March? Where will those votes come from?
FALLOUT. I don’t know how long this can go on without some effort to try to oust Speaker Johnson. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has already said she would try to force out Johnson if the House approves funding for Ukraine.
DEMS. Some Democrats are talking openly about opposing any GOP rebellion against the new Speaker - no matter their political differences. “I will never allow (Greene) to vacate any Speaker,” tweeted Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL).
SCHEDULE. The extra time approved by Congress for work on the 2024 government funding bills might force a change in the House legislative schedule. The new shutdown deadlines shifted to March 1 and March 8. That’s a problem.
HOUSE. The House is out next week. And there is a break from February 16 until March 5. It’s obvious that schedule makes it hard to pass a dozen funding bills by early March. Look for that February break to be cut back.
WASTED TIME. Republicans only have themselves to blame for this spending debacle. The Freedom Caucus revolt against the two-year budget freeze negotiated by Speaker Kevin McCarthy has completely backfired. The House GOP has been wasting time and fighting with each other for months.
REGULAR ORDER. This year is not even three weeks old and things are nutty in Congress, the courts, and on the campaign trail. “Your columns are a marvelous update on what is happening,” one new subscriber wrote. Help support independent journalism in the halls of Congress with a subscription to ‘Regular Order.’
SENATE. After voting for the CR, Senators left town for the weekend with no clear path forward on a plan to combine major border security legislation with billions of dollars in American military aid to Israel and Ukraine.
MAILBAG. This question has come in a couple of times this week, so I figure I should try to explain it in today’s newsletter. "Why don't we know the details of the Senate border agreement?" It's a logical question.
TALKS. We don't know the details because there is no deal. We have no legislative text, no bullet points, no press releases, no nothing.
DETAILS. If you think it is weird to be talking about a deal that has not been finalized, welcome to my world. We keep asking Senators when the text will be out, and we get no answer.
TRUMP. Former President Donald Trump created two distinct brush fires for Republicans in Congress on Thursday - one dealing with the push for a border security bill in the Senate, and the other centered squarely on his claim of 'total immunity' for any actions he took during his time in the Oval Office.
POST. "A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES MUST HAVE FULL IMMUNITY," Trump declared, making the case again for why he shouldn't be charged in the Jan. 6 investigation. "EVEN EVENTS THAT "CROSS THE LINE" MUST FALL UNDER TOTAL IMMUNITY," Trump wrote.
GOP. Senate Republicans were not amused by the idea that Trump thinks he should be allowed to break any law at any time while in office. "Every citizen in America has should be held to the same standard," said Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).
BIDEN. If Trump is right - and a President does have 'full immunity’ - then it means Joe Biden could have Trump and his family killed - and get away with it. I'm not sure the Founding Fathers really envisioned that.
BORDER BILL. Meanwhile, Trump stepped up his public pressure on House Republicans to vote against any bipartisan deal made by Senators on border security. If Trump keeps up that opposition, it could made it very difficult for any border-Ukraine aid package to make it through Congress.
MESSAGE. "I do not think we should do a Border Deal, at all, unless we get EVERYTHING needed to shut down the INVASION of Millions & Millions of people, many from parts unknown," Trump wrote, boosting GOP demands to stand by a House-passed border bill, H.R. 2.
PRESSURE. Trump also made sure to insert himself into one other internal GOP battle - name checking the House Speaker. "I have no doubt that our wonderful Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, will only make a deal that is PERFECT ON THE BORDER."
IMPERFECT. What happens if there is a deal that is not acceptable to Trump? I find it hard to believe that the Speaker would allow it to come up for a vote.
COMMISSION. The House Budget Committee voted on Thursday to approve a bipartisan bill to establish a 'Fiscal Commission' - a special blue-ribbon panel which would provide recommendations to Congress on how best to deal with Uncle Sam's surging tide of red ink, as the national debt has now crested over $34 trillion.
BACKERS. "This commission is an essential first step toward restoring fiscal sanity," said Rep. Rudy Yakym (R-IN). "The U.S. urgently needs to take action before we further harm the next generation," said Rep. Ron Estes (R-KS).
WORK. One Democrat said the special commission is needed, simply because the Congress isn't doing its budget work. "Regular order is the Congressional Bigfoot," said Rep. Scott Peters (D-CA). "We're all told it exists, and none of us has ever seen it."
DEMS. But most Democrats opposed the plan, worried it will be used as a pretext to cut benefit programs. "We cannot slash Social Security, Medicare, and other critical programs," said Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA). "We need to protect and enhance Social Security, not cut it," added Rep. John Larsen (D-CT).
INTEREST. Speaking of the national debt, what's the fastest growing item in the federal budget? The answer is - interest on the national debt, which hit $659 billion in 2023. It won't surprise you that no one in Congress is doing anything about it. That's my column this week for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
TAX DEAL. The House Ways and Means Committee meets today to vote on a bipartisan tax relief package, which has goodies for each party in this election year. The plan expands the child tax credit (popular with Democrats) and includes business tax relief favored by Republicans.
LEGISLATIVE NERD NOTE. The cost of the $78 billion tax package is paid for - you can see all of the details on the revenue side at this link. The full text of the tax bill is here. A longer summary is also available.
1099-K. Today's markup could include other tax proposals, like one which deals with tax reporting forms for people who sell items online. "Congress must act to provide a legislative solution," members of both parties wrote in a letter to the Ways and Means Committee chair.
HUNTER BIDEN. House Republicans announced on Thursday that Hunter Biden has agreed to be questioned by lawmakers at the end of February. The announcement came after the House was ready to vote to hold the President's son in contempt of Congress - until he agreed to answer questions.
MARCH FOR LIFE. It may be snowing in Washington, D.C. today, but that won’t stop thousands of people from showing up for the March For Life. It's the second annual gathering since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the landmark Roe v. Wade decision, giving individual states the final say on how to limit abortion.
GOP. "As (today's) March for Life will remind us all, the rights of mothers and the unborn must be protected," said Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ). Both Smith and Speaker Mike Johnson are scheduled to address the March For Life rally on the National Mall.
BILLS. Republicans prepped for the March For Life by passing a pair of pregnancy-related bills on Thursday - which drew sharp opposition from the White House. The two measures passed on party-line votes in the House and will go nowhere in the Senate.
RAP SHEET. A member of the Proud Boys militia group from Florida was sentenced to 5 years in prison this week after pleading guilty to assaulting police on Jan. 6. Kenneth Bonawitz attacked a half dozen officers outside the Capitol that day. He brought an 8-inch hunting knife for his tourist visit.
TODAY. It's a busy day at the federal courthouse in Washington, D.C., as four more Jan. 6 defendants will be sentenced for their crimes. One of them is a Georgia man, Brian Ulrich, a member of the Oath Keepers militia group; he pleaded guilty to seditious conspiracy and cooperated with the feds.
MUSE OF HISTORY. January 19, 1826. On this date, Sen. Thomas Benton of Missouri offered a constitutional amendment to abolish the Electoral College. His plan would set up uniform election districts for a direct vote for President, with a runoff election between the top two finishers. Benton felt the Electoral College was simply a failure. "That this invention has failed of its objective in every election is a fact of such universal notoriety, that no one can dispute it," he said.
LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:
The House next has votes on Jan. 29.
The Senate is back on Monday.
Check President Biden’s schedule.
Follow me on Twitter @jamiedupree.
Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com
If you want to say ‘thanks’ - you can buy me a cup of coffee.
“The House is out next week.” In what other job in America could you take so much time off of work without completing one of the most basic tasks of the job (passing a budget)?
What precisely is their incentive now to adhere to these new March deadlines when they’ve recklessly and carelessly blown through all of the previous ones they set for themselves?
THIS is how you conduct yourself in an election year when you want to convince voters to let you keep control of the House? That’s one hell of a sales pitch.
The link you provided to the article about the Hastert Rule was a fascinating dive into the idea of governance by 'the majority of the majority'. I was particularly intrigued by the notion that when coalitions are formed in this way we are immediately confronted with a Congress that appears considerably more conservative (or liberal, depending on the party in the majority) than the ideological midpoint of the house at a whole. This being true because the controlling vote for success or failure for any legislation to even be considered is the member at the center of the majority party - not the member at the center of the chamber as a whole.
I was equally intrigued by these sentences near the end of the article:
"...the great irony is that the small band of Republican renegades in Congress only want to... demand strict party loyalty when they agree with the majority of the Conference." And "In the end, this will either be their undoing, or the undoing of the Republican colleagues."
Upon finishing the article it was particularly interesting to note that it was written more than 10 years ago... but appears to be even more relevant today than it was then.
Folks, if you skipped past this link on the Hastert Rule in Jamie's post today, it's worth a read: https://www.congressionalinstitute.org/2013/07/17/the-hastert-rule/