Speaker Johnson promises 'Red Wave' in Congress

Dems with edge on enthusiasm, early vote

Also in today’s edition of ‘Regular Order’ for November 1, 2024:

• More lawmakers ask for more disaster relief.

• Some GOP mumbo jumbo on health care.

• Puerto Rico to vote next week on the island’s future.

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HOUSE. Two years ago in the 2022 midterm elections, there was supposed to be a giant 'Red Wave' sweeping out Democrats from the House and Senate. It didn't materialize, as Democrats kept control of the Senate, while Republicans barely squeezed out a slim four-seat majority in the House.

• RED WAVE. "This time really is different," House Speaker Mike Johnson insisted on Thursday in an interview on Fox Business. "People understand that there is a clear choice this time," as the Speaker called Vice President Kamala Harris an 'empty suit.'

• HOLD. To keep their House majority, Republicans need to hold seats that they flipped in 2022 - those are mainly the swing seats of New York and California. If most of those roll the wrong way for Republicans - and sometimes that happens in an election - it could doom the GOP in the House.

• TRAIL. Speaker Mike Johnson continued his campaign trek through New York on Thursday, lending his support to GOP challenger Alison Esposito, who is trying to knock off Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY). A 25-year veteran of the NYPD, Republicans have high hopes for Esposito - but she's at a big money disadvantage compared to Ryan, who was first elected in 2022.

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MONTGOMERY. While Speaker Johnson was on the stump in New York, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries was in Alabama on Thursday - trying to make sure Democrats win an extra seat in the Yellowhammer State. Jeffries was there to campaign for Democrat Shomari Figures.

• YELLOWHAMMER. You may remember how the courts tossed out Alabama's district map, finding that it discriminated against Black voters. The remedy was to draw a second Black-majority district, and that's where Figures is trying to get elected.

• RACE. While Figures is favored for this seat - simply because it has more likely Democratic voters - he has been outraised by Republican Caroleene Hardee Dobson, who champions herself as a 'lifelong advocate for conservative values.'

• SPEAKER. As for Jeffries, his message is straightforward: "Elect a Democratic majority and vote the Far Right extremists out of office," Jeffries said Thursday. Jeffries doesn't have to mention what will happen if Democrats take control of the House - he'll be the next Speaker of the House.

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DISASTER AID. The biggest item on the legislative schedule when lawmakers in Congress return after the elections will be approving extra aid for those hit by Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. While there’s no official estimate yet on how much will be needed, the requests for help keep coming in.

• SUNSHINE. When Milton came across central Florida, it roared right over some very important areas for the state’s agricultural sector. This week, lawmakers from Florida told the feds that farm losses in their state could total at least $2.5 billion. The Florida delegation gets extra points for listing all sorts of crops in their letter:

Milton’s path impacted some of Florida’s most productive agricultural areas for aquaculture, avocados, bell peppers, blackberries, blueberries, broccoli, cabbage, cattle, citrus, Christmas trees, corn, cotton, cucumbers, dairy, equine, floriculture, grapes, leafy greens, mangos, nurseries, other animal products, peaches, peanuts, pecans, potatoes, poultry, rice, snap beans, soybeans, strawberries, sugarcane, sweet corn, tangerines, tomatoes, watermelons, and more.

CENTRAL VALLEY. It's not just the southeast which wants more disaster relief for farmers. Out in California, Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) - who is also a dairy farmer - is pressing for a $14 billion package of extra disaster relief for agriculture producers all across the nation. He says too many setbacks have been ignored by the feds.

• OP-ED. "According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, severe weather and major disasters caused over $21 billion in crop losses just in 2023 alone," Valadao wrote. "The states with the largest losses due to severe weather include Texas, Kansas, Florida, and California."

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FEMA. A month after Hurricane Helene ripped apart western North Carolina, Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC) on Thursday called on the White House to rush temporary housing to the region. "With winter approaching, time is of the essence," said Edwards, who says there are 2,581 families currently in need of help.

• COST. Edwards hasn't floated a figure for how much disaster relief he thinks his area still needs from FEMA. It won't surprise me one bit to see the push for disaster relief spur fiscal controversy inside the House GOP after the elections - because it isn’t going to be cheap.

• SUPPLIES. This week Edwards visited an area in his district known as 'Big Hungry' - where flood waters destroyed a bridge and left 78 people stranded. To get supplies in, Edwards said the residents built their own zipline delivery system, even cutting out landing spots for helicopters.

PRESSURE COOKER. I don’t know what Congress is going to do on disaster relief - because there are all sorts of groups which want help - and the last thing House Republicans will want to do is put together a giant spending package. Stay tuned.

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OBAMACARE. Donald Trump and top Republicans in Congress spent a few days this week trying to rewrite history about their past efforts to repeal and replace the Obama health law. Trump tried to do that when he was President, but on Thursday he acted like it never happened. "I never mentioned doing that, never even thought about such a thing," Trump tweeted.

• THUMBS DOWN. Maybe you might remember when Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) saved the Obama health law from being repealed by voting down a GOP plan to get rid of it. That was spurred by Trump, who still has never been able to put forward a replacement plan - or even the 'concepts' of a plan.

• JOHNSON. Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson claimed on Thursday that his call this week for 'massive reform' to the Obama health law was 'taken out of context' - even though the Speaker was being quoted. "We want to take a blowtorch to the regulatory state," Johnson said about health care changes.

• NO DETAILS. Remember - Republicans have been talking for 14 years now about either repealing the Obama health law or making major changes to it. They have never put forward a comprehensive plan to repeal or replace that law.

• MISSING BILLS. As I reported earlier this week, the House passed a GOP bill this Congress to let small businesses try different approaches on health insurance for their workers. But Republicans never sent that bill to the Senate for further legislative work.

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ENTHUSIASM. If you want to find a positive poll number for Democrats, look no further than polling about voter enthusiasm. Back when President Biden was still in the race, Democrats were depressed. Not anymore. The final Gallup poll numbers out yesterday showed Democrats at 77 percent for enthusiasm to vote; Republicans were at 66 percent.

• TURNOUT. Obviously, just being enthusiastic doesn't translate to victory. You have to turn out your voters - and what we are seeing so far is that Democrats are definitely getting out in key states in the race for President. These are numbers from a new CNN poll of people who have already voted:

  • Michigan 61-35 Harris

  • Wisconsin 60-38 Harris

  • Pennsylvania 57-40 Harris

WOMEN. Maybe more important are indications that more women are voting than men in almost every swing state. Remember, we saw women really rise up 2022 after the Supreme Court got rid of Roe v. Wade. It shouldn’t be a surprise to see women play a pivotal role in this presidential election.

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GEORGIA. Voters in Georgia have a front row seat in the race for President, as that state continues to see a hard fought battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris - both of whom will be in the state over the weekend. But in the race for control of the House, very little is happening in Georgia - or almost the entire Deep South - in the race for control of the House. That's my column this week for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

• TURNOUT. Speaking of Georgia, today is the final day of early in-person voting in the Peach State - where turnout is already over 51 percent. Did you vote early? Tell us why or why not.

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NEW MEXICO. I wondered aloud in yesterday's newsletter as to why Donald Trump went to New Mexico - which he has little chance of winning next week. He made clear the optics of his visit was all he was concerned about.

• SPEECH. "Don’t make me waste a whole damn half a day here," Trump said playfully, before getting down to business. "I’m here for one simple reason, I like you very much and it’s good for my credentials with the Hispanic or Latino community."

• GRISHAM. None of that washed with Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM). "Donald Trump's rambling and incoherent speech today clearly showed why New Mexicans have rejected his candidacy twice, and why we're going to do it again on Tuesday," Grisham said.

• PAST IS PROLOGUE. Trump lost New Mexico to Hillary Clinton by 8 points in 2016, and lost to Joe Biden by almost 11 points in 2020. If Trump wins New Mexico in 2024 - it would be a shocker to say the least.

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HALLOWEEN. GOP lawmakers in Congress did their best yesterday to fire off corny jokes disguised as election jabs on Halloween. This one may have been the winner: "We're not screaming from ghosts, monsters, or vampires," said Rep. Mark Alford (R-MO). "We're spooked by Kamala & Joe's open and unsecured southern border."

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FORMER. Two former GOP lawmakers in Congress from New Hampshire have joined the bandwagon of Republicans endorsing Kamala Harris instead of Donald Trump. Ex-Sen. Gordon Humphrey and ex-Rep. Chuck Douglas publicly said this week that they just can't vote for Trump.

• LIVE FREE. "As a father, a grandfather, a veteran, and a former United States Senator, I cannot vote for Trump," Humphrey said in a statement. "He’s dangerous to our democracy."

• OR DIE. Douglas, who after Congress served on the New Hampshire Supreme Court, said Trump has a 'fragile mental state.' I think the last time I saw Douglas was in 1996 when he was campaigning for Pat Buchanan in New Hampshire.

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PUERTO RICO. The attention put on Puerto Rico this week courtesy of the Trump rally in New York is a reminder that voters on the island will have a non-binding vote on Election Day - about the future of the island's form of government. Voters have three options to choose from: statehood, independence, or 'Sovereign Free Association.'

• CHOICES. All of us can understand the first two options. 'Sovereignty in free association with the United States' would stump many people. It is basically independence, but the U.S. government would retain the responsibility for the defense of the island - with guaranteed Pentagon access.

• REAGAN. I always take this moment to remind everyone that it wasn't that long ago that the GOP platform contained a provision which backed the idea of statehood for Puerto Rico. Republicans have done a complete about-face on that since Ronald Reagan endorsed it in his 1980 campaign.

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RAP SHEET. A North Carolina man has been sentenced to two years in prison for assaulting police on Jan. 6. Curtis Davis was part of a group of rioters squaring off with police in the Capitol Rotunda. At one point, Davis punched one officer in the face, hit another in the head, and pulled a riot shield away from another officer.

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MUSE OF HISTORY.  November 1, 1918.  It was almost Election Day, and House Speaker Champ Clark needed to get back to Missouri to vote.  "The rest of the Members can pull out at most any time," Speaker Clark told House, "but the Speaker has to stay here."  So, to give Clark an official backup, the House elected Rep. Finis Garrett of Tennessee - a future House Minority Leader - to fill in as Speaker Pro Tempore until November 12.

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LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM:

The House next has votes on November 12.

The Senate comes back for votes on November 12.

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Email me at jamiedupree@substack.com

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